North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread

[bugalou]

Hurricane season is nearly here.  Lets go.

[cgauxknox]

Subtropical Storm Andrea has formed; the season is officially under way.   https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-05-20-subtropical-storm-andrea-atlantic-bermuda

[Thundersnow]

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season

[BRUCE]

should be a dull boring season overall in the atlantic basin... the shear will be rocking.... 

[Thundersnow]

The gist of the outlook was near normal as an unfavorable El Niño pattern may be offset by above normal sea surface temperatures.

[cgauxknox]

There is a possibility that the MCV we currently have over Tennessee could move into the Gulf and spawn a tropical or subtropical system during the week.   If anything develops it will probably be minor,  but it isn't every day that we can track tropical weather that launches from our front porch.

[JayCee]

I think this is the first time I've seen the NHC highlight a possible tropical threat that comes FROM the mid-south.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Charles L.]

Chasing a Cat 1-Cat 2 hurricane is on my bucket list and one of these days I’ll do it.

So hard with work schedules and the time it takes to travel to the coast

[Curt]

Euro landfalls a hi end tropical storm or low end hurricane into southern LA next weekend with torrential rains up the Ms River basin. Yesterday the remnants were in east TN at this time so it’s picking up on a western trend. That could certainly continue west.

[Dyersburg Weather]

Ryan Vaughn has an animation of the current Euro run and as Curt said it rides the Mississippi all the way to Paducah. Long way to go

[cgauxknox]

NHC has upped the 5 day storm formation chance to 70 percent.  It was odd; I drove across Knoxville yesterday as the storms were active and it really felt like the kind of storms we see more at the coast than inland.  This system seems to be acting like what it may turn into later.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a
couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the
low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For
more information about the rainfall threat, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[JayCee]

Storms missed most of my area yesterday.  Lots of thunder; little rain.  So far in July, I've only recorded a tenth of an inch.  Getting very dry. 

Euro keeps shunting the tropical system further west, missing most of Tennessee. 

[cgauxknox]

NHC has upped their formation chance through 5 days to 80 percent this afternoon.  They seem increasingly confident that we'll see development of this system.

With all the flooding along the Mississippi already does it necessarily even matter if this turns into a named storm?  It seems to me that just a slow-moving tropical rainstorm could be very serious with all the water that's already standing in many places.

[Nash_LSU]

I'm down in Baton Rouge this week visiting family and there are a lot of people starting to get nervous around here. The Mississippi is still really high and surge has been known to come a good ways up the river. It's usually not a problem because the river is typically back down to normal levels by the time hurricane season ramps up. Plaquemines and St. Bernard could see some pretty decent flooding if it comes ashore in central LA.

And who knows if Sewerage and Water Board in Nola have their stuff together for the season. Having worked with them for a few years when I worked on water management in Nola, they probably don't have their stuff together. Same ol' same 'ol for them. Best case scenarios for the pumps is an inch for the first hour and 1/2" for every hour after that, but that's assuming the pumps are at 100%, which I doubt the are.

Hurricane Isaac showed what happens when a slow Cat 1 pumps surge in to Pontchartrain and Maurepas and dumps rain inland. St. James Parish and the Northshore took that one on the chin.

Another issue is that they still have a barge sunk in Bayou Chene to protect Morgan City. When they close off the locks down south of Houma to block surge, any rain that falls north of there has no where to go for a few days. Could become a pretty serious flood threat for those inland a little bit.

Should be an interesting week for me model watching. I've been through four storms down here. I may get to add another notch on the belt this weekend, for better or worse.

[cgauxknox]

Invest 94L has formed in the Bahamas and has a medium chance of development as it swings northward along the Atlantic coast of Florida.  Right now it looks like it will fizzle out later in the week but it could be a rainy few days along the coast between now and then.
Post Merge: July 23, 2019, 08:52:16 AMThis system is now officially tropical depression 3, but it looks to be a fish storm that will burn out pretty quickly.