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Author Topic: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.  (Read 25781 times)

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Offline Crockett

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2019, 10:11:45 AM »
I just ran the numbers and was surprised to see that, as of today, 2019 is still the wettest YTD on record here (our records only go back to about 1950 so it's an abbreviated record...but, still, the wettest YTD in the last 70 years, which is impressive in itself). We'll finally succumb to 1975 by the end of next week when the month ends, barring a rogue thunderstorm between now and then. We received 33.44" of rain through May 1975. We're sitting on 33.12" of rain this year.

Still, it's hard to believe that after all that rain we had from September-April, I'm actually breaking out the sprinklers for the lawn this week.

Offline mempho

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2019, 02:04:51 PM »
If this ridge holds for much longer than progged, we will roast and the Midwest will just be endless piles of debris .

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2019, 05:27:34 PM »
It's obvious the precipitation pendulum has swung solidly in the other direction from wet to dry over the TN valley.  TYS has just recorded their longest stretch of precipitation-free days since November 2017 (10).  Looking at the extended, it's quite possible they could go another 10 days with only scattered storms being forecast with a weakening front around Thursday. 

Quote
While we will see a reprieve from the near record heat, rain
chances remain low across the region through the extended.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2019, 06:31:07 PM »
Terrible situation unfolding for the suburbs of SW Kansas City. Strong couplet and tornado debris confirmed
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Offline Crockett

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2019, 07:16:21 PM »
It's obvious the precipitation pendulum has swung solidly in the other direction from wet to dry over the TN valley.  TYS has just recorded their longest stretch of precipitation-free days since November 2017 (10).  Looking at the extended, it's quite possible they could go another 10 days with only scattered storms being forecast with a weakening front around Thursday.

It once looked like appreciable rain for most this weekend with widely scattered storms as the ridge breaks down. Now it looks like it's going to be hit-or-miss for all of us for at least the next 7 days and maybe until around June 5-7. Unbelievable about-face by Ma Nature. I broke down and put the sprinklers on my lawn this evening. It's completely parched. My new grass that was so lush a couple of weeks ago is toast, and even my established lawn is turning brown in places that usually only turn brown once every few summers during mild droughts (shallow areas over septic tank, etc.). I can't say I saw this coming a few weeks ago.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2019, 08:48:40 AM »
It once looked like appreciable rain for most this weekend with widely scattered storms as the ridge breaks down. Now it looks like it's going to be hit-or-miss for all of us for at least the next 7 days and maybe until around June 5-7. Unbelievable about-face by Ma Nature. I broke down and put the sprinklers on my lawn this evening. It's completely parched. My new grass that was so lush a couple of weeks ago is toast, and even my established lawn is turning brown in places that usually only turn brown once every few summers during mild droughts (shallow areas over septic tank, etc.). I can't say I saw this coming a few weeks ago.

My lawn is also looking less happy.  10 rainless days has seriously drained the top soil of moisture.  A May heat wave isn't helping.

I knew mother nature had a tendency to balance the books, and she's doing so with a vengeance in Tennessee right now.   She's so moody these days. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline WXHD

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2019, 08:56:41 AM »
Iíve had less than 2 inches of rain this month. I donít like running my irrigation if I can help it but, itís definitely needed the last few days.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2019, 09:03:28 AM »
Iíve had less than 2 inches of rain this month. I donít like running my irrigation if I can help it but, itís definitely needed the last few days.
yeah... June looking hot n dry... whatís new ... right?
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #23 on: May 29, 2019, 09:12:02 AM »
Actually we should start to get a NW flow for awhile. Should be fortunate for some. Looks like more normal summer weather to me. Nothing blistering.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #24 on: May 30, 2019, 02:08:40 PM »
That NW Flow pattern is good news for us but very bad news for areas like Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois who absolutely don't need the rain.  The flooding would be more isolated to scattered in nature but still not needed for those areas.   

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #25 on: May 30, 2019, 05:15:19 PM »
It's been hot, but not the typical late summer heat we see later.  The difference is a stiff wind has been blowing with this heat wave, unlike the stagnant, breeze-less airmass we see in July. However, at the same time, the wind has really dried out the soil.  A good soaking is needed for new gardens trying to get established.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #26 on: May 31, 2019, 11:56:11 AM »
The fine folks of OK and KS have to love the latest GFS runs that show 9-11 inches of additional rainfall during the first half of June.   

Edit:  Tennessee is shown to receive some decent rainfall (widespread 2-4 inches on model output) as well during this tiemframe.  Remember since it is summer time you will have areas that get locally much less and areas that get locally much more.   
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 11:58:06 AM by StormNine »

Offline Curt

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Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #27 on: May 31, 2019, 04:12:45 PM »
Pretty ironic that smoke from the Canadian prairie wildfires is making its down through record flood waters in Arkansas and into the Memphis area.

« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 04:14:35 PM by Curt »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2019, 04:20:15 PM »
Now this is more like it.  5 o'clock and 74 with a good breeze.  I'm finally able to open the windows again. 



Post Merge: June 01, 2019, 07:09:40 AM
The result of record heat and little rain during the last two weeks of May:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TN






« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 07:10:05 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #29 on: June 01, 2019, 09:51:30 PM »
CFS V2 supports a Weak El-Nino decaying to a Neutral by winter.  An Neutral ENSO essentially means that ENSO will not play a role in the winter and that it will be about the MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, QBO, etc..

 

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