* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.  (Read 32509 times)

0 Members and 9 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,198
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1738
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #330 on: July 21, 2019, 08:05:59 PM »
Maybe the models are still a bit all over the place but we do look to at least lose the El-Nino which may weaken the subtropical jet.   I don't really see ENSO making much of an impact at this time seeing as any ENSO event that is not neutral will be weak at best.  We are also not coming off of a big time ENSO event in the previous year as well that would factor into the following year.  Example: Typically ENSO events that follow a Strong or Super Nino or Nina can have some similar characteristics.   

ENSO wide you are looking at winters like 52-53, 90-91, 93-94, 95-96, and 05-06.  Those taken together really don't give a strong signal for the late fall, winter, or spring one way or another.   

Winter will be decided by MJO, Arctic Air Supply, NAO, PNA, QBO (I think is right), ocean temperatures nearby, and some other wrenches that will get thrown in our face that we don't know about.   

Anyway, I am just glad that we get some relief from the swamp-like conditions we have been plagued with the last several days.   
southeast ridge will also be more of an player this coming winter also...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,094
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1477
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #331 on: July 22, 2019, 07:22:48 AM »
Most of TN from the plateau eastward and north of I-40 is under a flash flood watch today.  Not something you normally see in July without the influence of a tropical system.



Post Merge: July 22, 2019, 10:11:32 AM
Most of middle TN is now under a flash flood watch, as well. 

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
902 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Our FFA will be expanded to cover most of our area. Showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours should expand rapidly
across the area going into the afternoon. The approach of a trough
and embedded MCVs will help initiate the activity in a very moist
environment. The 12Z OHX upper air showed about 2 inches for
precipitable water, and models are focusing a northeast to
southwest band of moisture convergence across Mid Tn this
afternoon. Our previous FFA area did show the zone of most
persistent lift, but potential for localized flash flooding seems
just as high extending back across our southwest counties where
heavy rainfall has occurred during the past few days. 1 hour
flash flood guidance values are under 2 inches for much of the Mid
State, and we will likely have episodes of rainfall rates well in
excess of these amounts. We do not expect a widespread flood
situation, but locations where heavy convective bands set up could
be dealing with several inches of rain and significant local
impacts.

Thanks LMK for collaboration.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 10:11:32 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,232
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 566
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #332 on: July 22, 2019, 02:12:41 PM »
Torrential rain with line that just moved through. 2.5 inches here in about 30 minutes.

Post Merge: July 22, 2019, 05:35:44 PM
76 glorious degrees with a 12 mph north wind.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 05:35:44 PM by Dyersburg Weather, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,493
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 132
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #333 on: July 23, 2019, 07:50:36 AM »
I can't remember a July morning like this. It feels like a late September/early October morning out there.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,238
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #334 on: July 23, 2019, 08:06:36 AM »
That 62 degree dew point does feel surprisingly nice compared to the soup we've been in lately.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,997
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #335 on: July 23, 2019, 10:51:32 AM »
Memphis Intl DP at 55. We have to be close to record territory on how dry this air mass is for late July.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,198
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1738
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #336 on: July 23, 2019, 11:32:16 AM »
Memphis Intl DP at 55. We have to be close to record territory on how dry this air mass is for late July.
got to admit ... itís nice... breath of fresh air ... should drop down in the upper 50s tonite temp wise over large  area...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,232
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #337 on: July 23, 2019, 11:50:09 AM »
I walked outside this morning and thought, "Man, this feels good!" Then I checked the temp and it was 64...which is exactly what our "average" low is this time of year. Just goes to show how sticky and muggy our nights have been for the past month or so.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,238
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #338 on: July 23, 2019, 01:18:51 PM »
When I step outside, I don't really think "fall-like" per se, but it feels more like end of May/early June. All in perspective, I guess... it is a nice break from the extreme heat and humidity. Someone I heard noted that as of yesterday, the sun starts setting before 8:00 PM in Nashville. So, soon, the days getting shorter will become more noticeable. I think I've already noticed the sun rising later in the morning.

I look forward to fall, but I'm not in a super hurry for summer to end... it does have its perks.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,374
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2234
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #339 on: July 23, 2019, 01:25:17 PM »
When I step outside, I don't really think "fall-like" per se, but it feels more like end of May/early June. All in perspective, I guess... it is a nice break from the extreme heat and humidity. Someone I heard noted that as of yesterday, the sun starts setting before 8:00 PM in Nashville. So, soon, the days getting shorter will become more noticeable. I think I've already noticed the sun rising later in the morning.

I look forward to fall, but I'm not in a super hurry for summer to end... it does have its perks.

The later days in summertime are definitely a plus. One thing I do hate about winter is it being dark when I leave work everyday.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,094
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1477
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #340 on: July 23, 2019, 06:33:42 PM »
Agree with the statements about enjoying the long daylight hours of summer.  If it wasn't for family time around Christmas, and the chance for an early snow, December would be my most disliked month of the year. 

Post Merge: July 23, 2019, 06:37:01 PM
When I step outside, I don't really think "fall-like" per se, but it feels more like end of May/early June. All in perspective, I guess... it is a nice break from the extreme heat and humidity. Someone I heard noted that as of yesterday, the sun starts setting before 8:00 PM in Nashville. So, soon, the days getting shorter will become more noticeable. I think I've already noticed the sun rising later in the morning.

I look forward to fall, but I'm not in a super hurry for summer to end... it does have its perks.

As with summer, living on the western edge of a time zone also has it's perks.  Sun sets at 8:47 over on this end of the state, currently. (Of course, if you are a morning person, you'd prefer to live on the eastern edge of a time zone).
« Last Edit: July 24, 2019, 05:02:35 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JHart

  • TNWX Supporter
  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ******
  • Posts: 467
  • Location: Lascassas (NE Rutherford County)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 136
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #341 on: July 24, 2019, 10:54:48 AM »
My outdoor thermometer indicated a low of 54F out in the creek bottom this morning.  The thermometer tends to run about two degrees too cool, but still...  ::unclesam::
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,094
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1477
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #342 on: July 24, 2019, 01:15:00 PM »
After going through the first 12 days of July with less than .25" of rain, I'm up to 6.49" in the following 11 days.  Impressive turnaround.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,374
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2234
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #343 on: July 24, 2019, 06:58:56 PM »

Post Merge: July 23, 2019, 06:37:01 PM
As with summer, living on the western edge of a time zone also has it's perks.  Sun sets at 8:47 over on this end of the state, currently. (Of course, if you are a morning person, you'd prefer to live on the eastern edge of a time zone).

Visiting Louisville in the summer time is something amazing. Seriously odd still having some daylight past 9 PM.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,094
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1477
Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #344 on: July 25, 2019, 06:58:18 AM »
Visiting Louisville in the summer time is something amazing. Seriously odd still having some daylight past 9 PM.

I've always wondered why the time zones are structured the way they are in KY and TN.  I know they didn't want counties split in two, so they couldn't do straight lines, but Kentucky has the biggest "bend" or curve in the zone border other than Idaho.  Why didn't they just go straight south from southwest Indiana to Bowling Green or Hopkinsville?   ::scratch::

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

* Recent Posts

Winter 2019-2020
by Eric
[Yesterday at 07:58:27 AM]
Fall 2019
by schneitzeit
[November 13, 2019, 05:07:09 PM]
Mid November Arctic Front/ Light Snow
by Michael
[November 12, 2019, 10:14:22 AM]

Advertisement