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Author Topic: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.  (Read 32511 times)

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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #315 on: July 19, 2019, 11:12:11 PM »
Here's something you don't see every day...A PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch...

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   550 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     Much of north central and northeastern Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 550
     PM until 100 AM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105
       mph expected
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     A few tornadoes likely

   SUMMARY...An intense supercell cluster in northwestern Wisconsin is
   expected to evolve into a damaging bow echo that will accelerate
   east-southeastward across northern/northeastern Wisconsin this
   evening.  The storm environment will favor swaths of high-end,
   destructive outflow winds potentially exceeding 100 mph.  Tornadoes
   will also be possible with embedded circulations, as well as large
   hail in the next few hours with lingering supercell structures.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest
   of Wausau WI to 30 miles northeast of Manitowoc WI. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #316 on: July 20, 2019, 02:26:31 AM »
Here's something you don't see every day...A PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch...

Really not surprising at all when you have chicken noodle soup dew points + heat advisories/excessive heat warnings in place just south of where the jet is right now.  Just a few sparks off a shortwave and you have a gasoline fire igniting like Die Hard 2 until the MCS hits the Appalachians or the Atlantic.  I remember in June 2009 we had a a similar situation down here in west TN/north MS.  When the storms came through most of the are was in 6k-7k J/kg CAPE.  In most cases in the summer there isn't nearly enough lift to pop this so its just cosmetic, but with a short wave upstream triggering an MCS and it getting a nice big cold pool there is no stopping it until it runs out of fuel and with that kind of fuel power lines and trees are coming down.  In the event I spoke of I lost power for 3 days and a mature tree in my backyard.  Picture of the radar from that day below:

« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 02:28:04 AM by bugalou »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #317 on: July 20, 2019, 11:09:16 AM »
A significant chunk of Green Bay might be without power soon. That is a pretty serious looking bowing segment. [ Guests cannot view attachments ]



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Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #318 on: July 20, 2019, 01:03:03 PM »
PWS has the highest dewpoint I've ever recorded IMBY today at 79.1.  Heat index is 107.4.  I'd have to say, I'm feeling it outside.  Cutting this work day short at the cabin.  The weeds will be there tomorrow.

We just had over 1.6" of rain two days ago in a torrential downpour, so I'd say that moisture is helping elevate the dewpoint today.  Hopefully, the storms moving backwards from North Carolina will provide some relief later this afternoon. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Crockett

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #319 on: July 20, 2019, 03:23:22 PM »
I was slightly surprised to look up the data today and find that we've hit 90 degrees only 3 days this summer (none in the past week). For comparison's sake, we hit 90 degrees 19 times in 2018.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #320 on: July 20, 2019, 04:47:22 PM »
Mountain storms shared some heat relief today.  After dropping over .75" of rain, we're down to 72.  I'll take it.   ::rain::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline WXHD

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #321 on: July 20, 2019, 09:21:20 PM »
Almost half an inch of precip with this band and we lost over 20F in temp.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline snowdog

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #322 on: July 20, 2019, 10:16:37 PM »
We got a good bit of rain and a great lightning show tonight. Impressive.

Looking forward to the "cool down" Tuesday.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #323 on: July 20, 2019, 11:26:48 PM »
We got pounded here in Smyrna.  Tons of rain and the lighting was downright some of the best I have seen in a very long long time.  It went on for about 3 hours. Lost power for about 30 Mins also.

Offline JHart

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #324 on: July 21, 2019, 07:57:06 AM »
We had  a brief  shower (less that 0.2 inches) out here in Lascassas, but it was fascinating to watch the storms coalesce just a few miles to our west.  We had amazing cloud structure directly overhead for hours  as east-moving outflow interacted with the west-moving disturbance.  As the complex evolved, you could see tiny, isolated rain shafts merge into a solid curtain of greenish gray just over the hills to our west.  You could even hear the rush of the rain.  It was a great evening of weather-watching.

All I can hear this morning is my grass growing.  :o
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #325 on: July 21, 2019, 09:28:30 AM »
I was slightly surprised to look up the data today and find that we've hit 90 degrees only 3 days this summer (none in the past week). For comparison's sake, we hit 90 degrees 19 times in 2018.

It has been a very humid summer but I would not necessarily call it a hot summer at least when referring to daytime highs.   

Offline WXHD

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #326 on: July 21, 2019, 11:47:41 AM »
Almost 1.5” in the past hour here. Hope my yard and plants are able to soak it up.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #327 on: July 21, 2019, 12:12:29 PM »
Fantastic evening last night. I was at a friend's house a few miles north of Talbot's Corner. We were literally right on the cusp of the storms last night, only managing to get a few sprinkles the entire evening. Impressive lightning display along with some very nice outflow that drove down the humidity and temp significantly. The sky had almost a green tint too it and the leaves were constantly turning inside out...perfect porch-sitting weather.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #328 on: July 21, 2019, 06:20:03 PM »
Could   A La Niña be building in by winter or shortly after... into next spring... nice cold pool water building in pacific ...mmm
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
« Reply #329 on: July 21, 2019, 07:31:56 PM »
Could   A La Niña be building in by winter or shortly after... into next spring... nice cold pool water building in pacific ...mmm

Maybe the models are still a bit all over the place but we do look to at least lose the El-Nino which may weaken the subtropical jet.   I don't really see ENSO making much of an impact at this time seeing as any ENSO event that is not neutral will be weak at best.  We are also not coming off of a big time ENSO event in the previous year as well that would factor into the following year.  Example: Typically ENSO events that follow a Strong or Super Nino or Nina can have some similar characteristics.   

ENSO wide you are looking at winters like 52-53, 90-91, 93-94, 95-96, and 05-06.  Those taken together really don't give a strong signal for the late fall, winter, or spring one way or another.   

Winter will be decided by MJO, Arctic Air Supply, NAO, PNA, QBO (I think is right), ocean temperatures nearby, and some other wrenches that will get thrown in our face that we don't know about.   

Anyway, I am just glad that we get some relief from the swamp-like conditions we have been plagued with the last several days.     
« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 07:33:42 PM by StormNine »

 

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