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Author Topic: Fall 2019  (Read 4374 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #105 on: September 14, 2019, 10:09:12 AM »
My latest Fall Outlook takes into consideration the May/June 2018 like setup of the pattern meaning that a major something has to happen to break it.  Also that we are going from a El Nino to either a cool Neutral to weak Nina episode which typically favors ridging over our region.

My outlook is essentially a mix of 2007 and 2016 with a bit more of a 2007 lean.   

I do expect severe weather/tornado chances to start maybe in the 2nd half of October across the Midwest over to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and extending to the South in November. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #106 on: September 14, 2019, 10:50:59 AM »
My latest Fall Outlook takes into consideration the May/June 2018 like setup of the pattern meaning that a major something has to happen to break it.  Also that we are going from a El Nino to either a cool Neutral to weak Nina episode which typically favors ridging over our region.

My outlook is essentially a mix of 2007 and 2016 with a bit more of a 2007 lean.   

I do expect severe weather/tornado chances to start maybe in the 2nd half of October across the Midwest over to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and extending to the South in November.
still learning a lot on enso stuff ... but reading a lot over American wx.  Some say we’re Pratically in a Niña state now
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #107 on: September 14, 2019, 11:52:13 AM »
My latest Fall Outlook takes into consideration the May/June 2018 like setup of the pattern meaning that a major something has to happen to break it.  Also that we are going from a El Nino to either a cool Neutral to weak Nina episode which typically favors ridging over our region.

My outlook is essentially a mix of 2007 and 2016 with a bit more of a 2007 lean.   

I do expect severe weather/tornado chances to start maybe in the 2nd half of October across the Midwest over to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and extending to the South in November.


Looking at current state of ENSO and where it’s most likely going from CPC site...



Right now ENSO region 3.4(which is where official ENSO events are declared) is neutral with a warm west and cool east. The SOI is crashing at the moment so that will most likely keep any further cooling at bay- almost eliminating any chance of an official Nina. I think we stay neutral through winter at this point.

SST are almost identical to 2013 at this point- which also had an anomalous warm pool in the NE Pacific. Looking at fall 2013, it was also warm and dry in September with prolonged 90’s late into the month. October and November trended normal. December turned cold and dry - with a winter weather threat early. The St Jude Marathon was cancelled due to ice and temps in the mid teens.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #108 on: September 14, 2019, 04:52:38 PM »
I can see a bit of a 2013-14 comparison especially mixed with a 2017-18.  Both look to feature a +PNA and a +NAO.  Less than impressive 1952-53, 2005-06, and yes even the dreaded 2016-17 are also possibilities.   

We can win in a +PNA/+NAO pattern but you have to get that EPO ridge and you cannot have a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska area or else we will have a Nationwide USA and Canadian torch similar to Jan 2006 or times during the 2016-17 winter.     

Post Merge: September 14, 2019, 05:01:21 PM
The Gulf of Alaska low is a big reason why we are having the heat we have been having and are expected to have till at least early October. 
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 05:01:21 PM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Flash

Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #109 on: September 14, 2019, 08:06:44 PM »
I can see a bit of a 2013-14 comparison especially mixed with a 2017-18.  Both look to feature a +PNA and a +NAO.  Less than impressive 1952-53, 2005-06, and yes even the dreaded 2016-17 are also possibilities.   

We can win in a +PNA/+NAO pattern but you have to get that EPO ridge and you cannot have a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska area or else we will have a Nationwide USA and Canadian torch similar to Jan 2006 or times during the 2016-17 winter.     

Post Merge: September 14, 2019, 05:01:21 PM
The Gulf of Alaska low is a big reason why we are having the heat we have been having and are expected to have till at least early October.

Yikes.  :( If we're repeating 2016-17, there won't be anything worth talking about for quite a while.

Edit: It would be interesting to read threads from fall 2007-08. I imagine many on here would have thought that fall couldn't get any worse...but here we are hoping the next 6 months turn out more like 2007-08 than some of the more recent alternatives.

Edit 2: CB hinted at doing research on hot Septembers vs. subsequent winters. Is there really any correlation to be found there?
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 08:16:29 PM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #110 on: Yesterday at 10:52:21 AM »
This is purely a guess but I bet there is a correlation between HOT falls and big switches to cold winters. Most of this is based purely on my experience duck hunting. Dry/hot falls typically usher in cold winters with lots of fronts and weather which equals lots of ducks for us on the west side of the state. Have had some great seasons after a dry and warm fall.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #111 on: Yesterday at 11:41:18 AM »
Sept 1925 leads to an average to slightly above-average winter.

Sept 2009, 2010, and 2013 leads to below average winters.

Sept 2007 and 2008 leads to a slightly above average winter

Sept 2015, 2016, and 2018 leads to a blowtorch winter 

Mixed results but it should be noted that our last 3 warm Septembers led to warm winters.   

Offline Flash

Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #112 on: Yesterday at 04:48:05 PM »
Sept 1925 leads to an average to slightly above-average winter.

Sept 2009, 2010, and 2013 leads to below average winters.

Sept 2007 and 2008 leads to a slightly above average winter

Sept 2015, 2016, and 2018 leads to a blowtorch winter 

Mixed results but it should be noted that our last 3 warm Septembers led to warm winters.   

Quite the spread. I guess part of the counter is 2015 and 2016 were heavily influenced by the same record Niño and this version looks to be significantly weaker. Also, in fewer mathematical words, we're due.

Note: If any of you are issuing winter weather forecasts the new few months, I suggest going  ::blowtorch:: for February until we buck this awful trend we've been in. December/January are open season, but February...I'll believe it when I see it.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #113 on: Yesterday at 05:14:18 PM »
Quite the spread. I guess part of the counter is 2015 and 2016 were heavily influenced by the same record Niño and this version looks to be significantly weaker. Also, in fewer mathematical words, we're due.

Note: If any of you are issuing winter weather forecasts the new few months, I suggest going  ::blowtorch:: for February until we buck this awful trend we've been in. December/January are open season, but February...I'll believe it when I see it.

My winter outlook says first state wide snow/ice event the second week of Jan. First state wide severe outbreak of 2020 will be the first week of Feb.

TLDR:  This winter is going to be a warm/wild ride

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #114 on: Yesterday at 06:42:55 PM »
So what would it take to shift the ridge at this point? Honest question.

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #115 on: Yesterday at 09:44:00 PM »
So what would it take to shift the ridge at this point? Honest question.

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a serious potent system .... pattern changer it would lead to ... as it been discussed... before by Steven
Come on severe wx season...

 

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