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Author Topic: severe weather threat april 17th 18th  (Read 7384 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #75 on: April 18, 2019, 03:31:35 PM »
imagine that.... lol .

LOL! truth

Offline JayCee

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #76 on: April 18, 2019, 05:13:16 PM »
Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
403 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...

A lot to discuss in the short term period with elevated fire
weather potential, high winds across the mountains, strong to
severe thunderstorms, and locally heavy rainfall.


Quote
The downslope
conditions will also keep dewpoints and RH values lower. RH
values in the mid to upper 30`s will be possible in NE Tennessee
and SW Virginia. This combined with gusty southerly winds could
create some elevated fire danger into the late afternoon. An SPS
has been issued for mainly northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia through 00Z.


Quote
Model guidance is in good agreement that 850mb winds
increase to 45 to 60 knots late tonight and into Friday morning.
This combined with a south to south-southeast wind direction gives
higher confidence of a mountain wave induced wind event across
the mountain zones tonight and Friday morning. The current high
wind warning seems to be in good shape and will keep that as is.

Quote
The next weather hazard to discuss is the potential for strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms late tonight.

Quote
The main
threats continue to be damaging winds but a tornado cannot be
ruled out. Timing of said convection is medium to high confidence.
High-res guidance indicates the line of thunderstorms moving into
far southwest counties of the MRX CWA as early as 03z to 04z and
will continue to move east overnight. Localized heavy rainfall is
possible as well given the high PW values and efficient warm rain
processes.

Quote
Rain showers will be widespread with
the upper low. With the cold air aloft freezing levels will drop
with some accumulating snow in the higher elevations above 4000 feet
late Friday night and Saturday tapering off Saturday night as the
system gradually shifts north. Snowfall amounts may reach up to
about 2 inches at highest elevations. Temperatures will be much
colder Friday night and Saturday. Lows Saturday in the 40s with 30s
highest elevations. Saturday highs will be in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

All this in east TN in the next 24-48 hours.  Boring??  I think not.  Unless you expect real life to be like a video game.


"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #77 on: April 18, 2019, 05:40:26 PM »


All this in east TN in the next 24-48 hours.  Boring??  I think not.

I'm thinking we need to contain ol' Bruce to another thread  ;D
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #78 on: April 18, 2019, 08:30:11 PM »
Not even a rumble of thunder or flash of lightning

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #79 on: April 18, 2019, 09:33:11 PM »
I agree 100%. Not to mention the high cost of electricity, gas, and housing. Then you have San Francisco where people dump out in the street, pee anywhere, and needles make clean up not only a pain, but also dangerous. Nope... couldn't pay me to live there.

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Me neither. Miserable place to live unless you're very rich.
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline JayCee

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #80 on: April 19, 2019, 07:26:13 AM »
Heavy rain, thunder and strong winds this morning.  Rain continues to train over areas east of Knoxville.  Already well past an inch here, and it's still pouring. 



(Radar image will change over time).

Post Merge: April 19, 2019, 09:29:09 AM
The rain train refuses to budge as the open wave transitions into a closed low over the area.  Flash flood warnings are becoming widespread in northeast GA and western NC, where upslope conditions adds to the rain totals.  Creeks are rising here, as well, as the rain refuses to let up in the foothills. 
« Last Edit: April 19, 2019, 09:39:12 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #81 on: April 19, 2019, 10:56:04 AM »
There's a weird thing going on with the returns on Radarscope out of OHX when I put it into motion.

It appears some showers are moving in a north/northwesterly direction, superimposed over returns that are moving south.

It almost appears that upper level activity is moving one direction (north) while low level CAA-driven returns are drifting south (in the opposite direction) in the northerly flow. Anyone else see that?

I assume it has to do with circulation around an upper low while returns at a different level are moving south in the northerly flow behind the front... just weird looking. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything quite like that.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2019, 10:58:50 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #82 on: April 19, 2019, 11:01:36 AM »
I see it also that is weird.

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« Last Edit: April 19, 2019, 11:04:21 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #83 on: April 19, 2019, 11:35:02 AM »
We're on the more severe end of this system as the rain and high wind just started on the Georgia coast a few minutes ago.  Once this blows through later in the afternoon it does look like we'll have a beautiful Easter weekend heee.  I hope everybody at home in Tennessee  weathers the storm well and Happy Easter!

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #84 on: April 19, 2019, 12:32:58 PM »
I'm happy that we're receiving one last weekend of cool, crisp air and low temperatures before the steamy summer sets in. After this weekend, I don't think we'll see highs in the 40s until the fall.

Easter Sunday (for those celebrating it this weekend) will be beautiful here in Knoxville- 70 degree high temperature and no expected precipitation.

We celebrate Easter next Sunday, and for the Orthodox Church, Easter is a huge holiday. Here's to some good weather next Sunday as well for all seven of us Greek Orthodox folks in East Tennessee ::rofl::

Just kidding. There might be 30 of us.

I've even had some people ask me if I am polytheistic when I say I'm "Greek Orthodox." Not even joking.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2019, 12:35:14 PM by schneitzeit, Reason: Typo »
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #85 on: April 19, 2019, 12:58:09 PM »
Just kidding. There might be 30 of us.

Well, one weekend every fall your numbers swell to around 10,000  ;D
Mmmmmmm, baklava sundaes  ::yum::

Offline bonzomemphis

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #86 on: April 19, 2019, 01:42:55 PM »
November-March....can't get an upper low or deformation zone to swing through here after a frontal passage to save our lives
April...can't get out of the 40's and literally can't get it to stop raining because of a cold core low sitting right on top of us

FML

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #87 on: April 19, 2019, 02:09:40 PM »
November-March....can't get an upper low or deformation zone to swing through here after a frontal passage to save our lives
April...can't get out of the 40's and literally can't get it to stop raining because of a cold core low sitting right on top of us

FML

This has been a recurring theme the past three years, too.
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline Charles L.

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #88 on: April 20, 2019, 07:40:02 AM »
Alright Bruce, what outbreak period we looking at next?
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #89 on: April 20, 2019, 09:25:01 AM »
Alright Bruce, what outbreak period we looking at next?
dont see a thing near future to be honest ... lol

Post Merge: April 20, 2019, 09:30:05 AM
Last one just didnít workout to well for us ... at least .
« Last Edit: April 20, 2019, 09:30:05 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

 

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