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Author Topic: severe weather threat april 17th 18th  (Read 3690 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2019, 09:07:13 PM »
just my thinking...the 17th event to our west will bring a rain shield into our area with decent cloud cover and limit the event. Unless our area is the beginning of the initial event it seems we have a hard time getting really unstable due to rain/cloud shield....BUT it is a very decent threat to watch for sure. I am thinking little rock area could get blasted the 17th

The "geography" of this event seems a lot like 26th and 27th of april 2011.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2019, 09:11:00 PM »
The "geography" of this event seems a lot like 26th and 27th of april 2011.

If that's true, then this will be East Tennessee's most severe outbreak since, well, 2011.

Offline gcbama

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2019, 09:16:05 PM »
If that's true, then this will be East Tennessee's most severe outbreak since, well, 2011.

Don't think it will be anywhere near that intense though, 2011 was a once every 30 year type of event . However the beginning of the 2011 outbreak was the 26th over Arkansas area and then shifted east the next day and was obviously a historical event. This one again seems that it will initiate over Arkansas with confidence ( 30% chances already for that area on 17th) what happens after that will be "up in the air ...no pun intended lol" If we don't have a rain shield and we can get some good unstable air in through here it could be nasty

Offline Thundersnow

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severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2019, 06:44:39 AM »
A portion of the text from the SPC regarding Thursday’s system:

Quote
Widespread convection (and associated cloud cover)
   accompanying the system should hinder heating/destabilization in
   many areas.  However, strong flow aloft should compensate somewhat
   -- permitting locally strong/severe storms to occur, along with an
   afternoon peak in severe weather potential.

That sounds like they’re thinking  a little less than “outbreak”-worthy at this point. So, maybe not quite as ominous as it looked a couple of days ago, but still worth keeping an eye on to see how this unfolds.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 06:49:04 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Eric

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2019, 08:22:41 AM »
Not terribly impressive for Tennessee.  The deepening and sharpening of the trough kinda ruined any potential for a sustained "outbreak" for the TN Valley.  ArkLaMiss may get popped again. 
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Online BRUCE

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #20 on: April 15, 2019, 09:09:07 AM »
Not terribly impressive for Tennessee.  The deepening and sharpening of the trough kinda ruined any potential for a sustained "outbreak" for the TN Valley.  ArkLaMiss may get popped again.
yeah starting see couple things I’m not liking... only in Tennessee can we screw up a severe threat
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #21 on: April 15, 2019, 09:18:24 AM »
as I said last week .... I pay attention to nothing past 4 days anymore.

And also the fact that an event will happen the very day before will hinder our chances for anything due to convection and cloud cover as it Always does in the past 6-7 years

This has been an incredibly boring weather year so far

Online BRUCE

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #22 on: April 15, 2019, 09:20:30 AM »
as I said last week .... I pay attention to nothing past 4 days anymore.

And also the fact that an event will happen the very day before will hinder our chances for anything due to convection and cloud cover as it Always does in the past 6-7 years
yeah really... lack of some interesting weather in this state is starting to get ridiculous....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #23 on: April 15, 2019, 10:24:46 AM »
It only takes one cell to go rogue under the right conditions to cause problems for someone, even if we’re not talking a widespread outbreak. So, it’s worth continuing to monitor. Just be thankful if the area comes out unscathed.

Offline gcbama

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #24 on: April 15, 2019, 10:27:09 AM »
It only takes one cell to go rogue under the right conditions to cause problems for someone, even if we’re not talking a widespread outbreak. So, it’s worth continuing to monitor. Just be thankful if the area comes out unscathed.

agreed that's what I said yesterday...bears "watching" but doubtful of any type of outbreak at this point

Offline StormNine

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #25 on: April 16, 2019, 05:33:51 AM »
As recently as a few days ago this was looking outbreakish and now it looks closer to a hot mess than an outbreak.

The trough is way too sharp meaning more linear forcing and not a lot of time to form an unstable environment free of crapvection.  It also appears that crapvection will be an issue with the potential for some expansive MCS clusters across Arkansas, Louisiana, and East Texas.   These clusters would serve to block the richer moisture return from our area. 

If we can clear from the crapvection from a few moments then we could have a QLCS event with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, but if not then a hot mess this event will become.   

Online BRUCE

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #26 on: April 16, 2019, 06:20:29 AM »
As recently as a few days ago this was looking outbreakish and now it looks closer to a hot mess than an outbreak.

The trough is way too sharp meaning more linear forcing and not a lot of time to form an unstable environment free of crapvection.  It also appears that crapvection will be an issue with the potential for some expansive MCS clusters across Arkansas, Louisiana, and East Texas.   These clusters would serve to block the richer moisture return from our area. 

If we can clear from the crapvection from a few moments then we could have a QLCS event with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, but if not then a hot mess this event will become.
yeah ... it’s next guess... whenever that will be... before you know it ... we going be starring at summer in the face... jet stream will soon migrate way way north ... then it will be time to say good bye to true severe threats ... still got time this spring to produce something significant ... but time is ticking slowly away....

Post Merge: April 16, 2019, 06:22:56 AM
Well we do have Memphis in May soon coming up... that event has produced some
Big time threats before ... see what happens this season when Memphis in May festivities roll around .  Lol
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 06:22:56 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #27 on: April 16, 2019, 06:55:27 AM »
Personally, squall line events are my favorite because once it passes you are done with the severe threat. Usually a quick 5-10 minutes of warning level wind and then you are good to go on with your day/night.
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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #28 on: April 16, 2019, 07:11:32 AM »
Personally, squall line events are my favorite because once it passes you are done with the severe threat. Usually a quick 5-10 minutes of warning level wind and then you are good to go on with your day/night.
::sleeping::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: severe weather threat april 17th 18th
« Reply #29 on: April 16, 2019, 07:30:25 AM »
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