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Author Topic: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat  (Read 1922 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2019, 07:35:29 AM »
Typical April weather.  Possible severe followed by much cooler and mountain snowflakes.

Quote
The surface low associated with the Mississippi
Valley deep upper trough will be driving northeast through the
Ohio Valley while dragging the powerful cold front through the Mid
south around mid day into the afternoon. This will be where the
main threat of severe weather will occur with the best likelihood
of severe thunderstorms impacting Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia later this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Its very interesting because previous model runs (in recent
days) have been showing a high shear but low cape event, but
looking at the early morning model runs, cape doubles to triples
in magnitude to a moderate or even high category across Northeast
Tennessee. Of course, shear will not be a problem with bulk shear
at around 60-80 kts. Just not convinced capes will rise into the
1500-2000 j/kg range in this area during the afternoon,
instability should be more than sufficient as the front moves
through later today into the evening. The convective line pushes
east of the forecast area during the mid to late evening hours
bringing an end to the severe weather threat and heavier rain.
Some weak trailing upper level energy and relatively deep moisture
build east across mainly the northern half of the forecast area
behind the front bringing widely scattered showers and even a
snowflake or two in the higher terrain areas toward daybreak.

Post Merge: April 14, 2019, 07:42:29 AM
Even without storms, HRRR shows wind gusts approaching 50mph from the plateau eastward this afternoon.   ::wow::
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 07:42:29 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2019, 10:45:52 AM »
The band of moderate rainfall has passed through downtown Knoxville. What remains is some pop-up storms this afternoon. I have my fingers crossed for some severe weather action.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2019, 11:19:38 AM »
Looks rough from I-75 eastward later today.

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1102 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The initial line of storms has weakened considerably as it moves
into the eastern half of our area. Satellite shows clearing skies
over Middle TN that will allow for good surface heating and
destabilization this afternoon, in addition to strong warm
advection with the southerly flow. SBCAPE values are expected to
rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, and perhaps higher than that
in the southern Valley. This, combined with the dry air aloft and
continued high deep layer shear, will result in another round of
severe storms in the 3 pm to 9 pm time frame. Hi-res models show
redevelopment of storms near the I-75 corridor, taking the form of
supercells that evolve into a line as it moves east across NE TN
and SW VA.
Damaging winds will be the greatest threat due to the
dry air and strong winds aloft, and potential for bow segments
along the line. LCL heights and 0-1 SRH values also support a
tornado threat for the whole area, but favoring areas along I-75
as backing of surface winds may be difficult to achieve in the
shadow of the mountains in the northern Valley
. Hail may also be a
threat given the low WBZ heights, but it appears marginal (dime
to quarter- size) looking at CAPE profiles in forecast soundings.
Hi-res models are in good agreement that the storms will exit our
area around 10 pm.

For once, I'm glad I live in the shadow of the mountains. 


"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Crockett

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2019, 11:52:08 AM »
SPC has removed the enhanced risk for all of East TN. Now just a slight risk across the eastern half of the state.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2019, 12:38:29 PM »
SPC has removed the enhanced risk for all of East TN. Now just a slight risk across the eastern half of the state.

A bit of good news.  The enhanced area is from eastern KY northeastward into Ohio now.

Clouds and even some light rain are lingering east of Knoxville.  That may be part of the reason for the change. 





Post Merge: April 14, 2019, 12:45:57 PM
Visiting folks in London, KY this weekend.  Looks like we could be under a Tornado Watch shortly.  The sun has been out here since about 10:00 a.m.

Quote
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...Southern Ohio...Western West
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 141725Z - 141930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Boundary layer destabilization is underway in eastern
   Kentucky with agitated cumulus now visible on satellite. Storm
   initiation is expected within the next 2-3 hours. Strong deep-layer
   wind profiles will support storm organization and supercells capable
   of all severe hazards. A tornado watch will be forthcoming in the
   next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid-level shortwave now approaching western
   Kentucky, low-level moisture return has begun to increase across the
   discussion area. An area of enhanced cumulus, per visible satellite,
   along a confluence axis has developed in eastern Kentucky. Given the
   continued vertical development of these clouds and latest guidance
   on timing from CAMs, storm initiation appears to be 2-3 hours away.
   Region VAD profiles show between 50-70 kts of flow from 850-700 mb.
   Accordingly, low-level hodographs are relatively large -- which has
   been sampled well by the JKL VAD -- along and south of a warm front
   now nearing Wilmington, OH. As heating and moistening of the
   boundary layer continues, MLCAPE values are forecast to reach around
   1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer flow will support effective bulk shear
   of 60-75 kts. This parameter space suggest supercell storms capable
   of all hazards. A tornado watch is likely in the next hour or two.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 12:45:57 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Hank W

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2019, 05:44:59 PM »
Not sure if anyone else was watching WTVA’s coverage from Tupelo last night, but there were some pretty comical moments. Matt Laubhan did a great job, just struggled to stay calm a few times. He did apologize to John later on air, but I sure got a kick out of these clips.  ::rofl::  ::rofl::  ::rofl::
https://awfulannouncing.com/local-networks/mississippi-meteorologist-snapped-his-fingers-at-coworker-on-air.html

Offline Greyhound

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2019, 06:07:01 PM »
Very anticlimactic in Knoxville.  Got windy for a bit.....rained a little bit....sun's back out, a little cooler and breezy. 

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Offline MSR041933

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2019, 10:04:08 PM »
Had my first “close call” last night Marion\Franklin county AL storm.. Im not the best with reading the different velocity’s and CCs and even to my eye I knew there it had probably dropped another TOR and had for sure seen a well defined debris ball..we left our house around 11:15 and the rotation went either directly over the basement we took cover at, or just miles to the west.while at the same falling apart and broadening out..Spann had mentioned a few times that storm had a history of cycling and putting one on the ground. It was the the first time I can recall ever being so sure we would be riding out a tornado. Prayers to family’s of lost loved ones in Monroe county. 
"The only thing that can stop a BAD guy with a gun is a GOOD guy with a gun"

 

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