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Author Topic: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat  (Read 2715 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« on: April 13, 2019, 07:45:57 AM »
We have an active day ahead of us in the Deep South with a 5% tornado risk extending into SW Tennessee and then a threat in Middle and Eastern TN for tomorrow. 

Today has some high-end potential in Louisiana and Mississippi based on storm mode and tomorrow could feature one or two rounds of severe storms with all modes possible. 

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2019, 07:49:29 AM »
With an enhanced risk covering all of East TN for tomorrow this is a rare system for us.  Hopefully we just get some good fireworks without real damage, but it's concerning, particularly considering that it's likely to hit on Palm Sunday morning when many people are going to be out back and forth to church.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2019, 07:58:38 AM »
junk convection along the ark la tex could dampen this  event bit... should help it from going to high risk... next weeks event has more potential... models been indicating that for while...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2019, 08:03:00 AM »
Latest update did not go high risk.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2019, 08:05:58 AM »
Latest update did not go high risk.
they did expand the slight risk more north into Tennessee more
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2019, 10:09:58 AM »
junk convection along the ark la tex could dampen this  event bit... should help it from going to high risk... next weeks event has more potential... models been indicating that for while...

That convection is due to the warm front.  Just south of that warm front is 2000-3000 Surface CAPE across SE TX/S LA.  Once that front moves north across Northern Louisiana than that highly unstable mass will gradually move into those areas. 

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2019, 10:32:38 AM »
I'll say the highest threat area, from what I'm seeing and just a little bit of a forecaster's hunch is going to be from Winnfield, to Winnsboro, to Vicksburg, and bending slightly to Jackson.

Post Merge: April 13, 2019, 10:53:52 AM
Radar confirmed tornado just west of Hearne, TX. Velocities well over 100kts.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 10:53:52 AM by NashRugger, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2019, 11:18:28 AM »
Looks like possibly dual tornadoes on the cell approaching Franklin, TX.
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2019, 11:32:56 AM »
Franklin, TX is about to take it on the chin.  Any of those discrete storms that can get going near that warm front in SE Texas are going to become problems. Another one near Kennard, TX may take off as well.   

Further east I do think current convection could shunt the greater risk a little bit to the south.  Think that NashRugger pretty much has the general zone of the greatest threat down pat.   

For us at home thinking that the tonight's threat is probably going to go to our south but with the strong low-pressure system approaching us we still cannot rule out an isolated spinup or damaging wind event across our area during the overnight/wee-morning hours.  There are a ton of questions on whether redevelopment can occur in the afternoon.  If it does the winds are mostly unidirectional meaning that storms will probably have more of a hail/wind threat with just an isolated tornado threat if they do form at all.   

Next week will be addressed after we get through this event because there are differences in how broad the trough is which can be the difference between a tornado outbreak or just another typical springtime cluster or squall line.   

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2019, 11:38:47 AM »
Franklin, TX is about to take it on the chin.  Any of those discrete storms that can get going near that warm front in SE Texas are going to become problems. Another one near Kennard, TX may take off as well.   

Further east I do think current convection could shunt the greater risk a little bit to the south.  Think that NashRugger pretty much has the general zone of the greatest threat down pat.   

For us at home thinking that the tonight's threat is probably going to go to our south but with the strong low-pressure system approaching us we still cannot rule out an isolated spinup or damaging wind event across our area during the overnight/wee-morning hours.  There are a ton of questions on whether redevelopment can occur in the afternoon.  If it does the winds are mostly unidirectional meaning that storms will probably have more of a hail/wind threat with just an isolated tornado threat if they do form at all.   

Next week will be addressed after we get through this event because there are differences in how broad the trough is which can be the difference between a tornado outbreak or just another typical springtime cluster or squall line.
still think convection back building some going shunt this threat bit ... spc multi day threat next week is concerning ... seeing some early analog s coming arenít good ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2019, 12:31:45 PM »
still think convection back building some going shunt this threat bit ... spc multi day threat next week is concerning ... seeing some early analog s coming arenít good ...
If you're going to say that, at least mention some of those dates.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2019, 12:54:59 PM »
He mentions March 1952 on the other thread.  If someone wants to they can start the thread on the mid-week they can and we can separate that discussion into its own thread.  That one is going to start getting a lot of attention and hype after this event ends, severe weather lovers dream of sub 990mb lows in Iowa when they go to bed.   

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2019, 04:18:15 PM »
Monster tornado in Louisiana. PDS warning.

Offline Curt

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Re: Palm Sunday Weekend Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2019, 04:47:08 PM »
Monster tornado in Louisiana. PDS warning.

Vicksburg MS looking really bad at the moment. Man I hope those folks are paying attention.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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