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Author Topic: Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019  (Read 2047 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Severe Weather Threat, 3/9/2019
« on: March 09, 2019, 03:23:33 AM »
HRRR is still painting multiple waves of storms moving through and then has a broken line of storms moving through during the early evening hours.

It really keeps the cells isolated as far east as the TN River, then seems to transition more linear as it reaches I-65.

Post Merge: March 09, 2019, 07:12:27 AM
New SPC outlook expands the ENH risk westward, now includes Memphis.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 09:01:26 AM by Thundersnow »
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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2019, 07:17:04 AM »
So no big precip shield with the warm front.  Let’s see what we can get popping.  Maybe a little sunlight will make its way down.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2019, 07:17:17 AM »
Saw a post on Facebook that said “At least when we spring forward tomorrow night we will lose an hour of rainfall”



That’s actually meme-worthy right there.






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« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 07:51:49 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2019, 07:22:37 AM »
Having a hard time believing the atmosphere is going to destabilize that much without at least some sun.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2019, 07:26:50 AM »
just took the dog for a brisk morning walk... starting to see the first sign of breaks in the sky... slowly
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2019, 07:31:25 AM »
60° DPs are already across SW TN moving NE through Jackson.
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2019, 07:37:38 AM »
2.13 in the bucket yesterday and last night. Flood warnings are backs again.  Model qpf was far too low. They all had under 1”.
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2019, 07:40:25 AM »
60° DPs are already across SW TN moving NE through Jackson.
They are moving north fast. Currently 63 dp in Memphis and 53 here.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2019, 07:45:44 AM »
They are moving north fast. Currently 63 dp in Memphis and 53 here.

Both the RAP and HRRR get the 60°+ DPs pretty far northward. Gets most of us into ~63-65° range.

Definitely two camps this morning. The GFS/NAM never get DPs above 62° and limit how far northward the 60° DPs get.

The Hi-Res short term models (HRRR and RAP) surge 63-65° DPs very far northward/eastward.

Let’s see who wins out today.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 07:55:14 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2019, 07:45:48 AM »
Definitely a noticeable change from about 2 am when I went outside and when I just let the dog out.  Socked I’m with clouds though.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2019, 08:04:26 AM »
HRRR from weather.us around 3pm today. That is quite a concerning look. Even between 11am-2pm today it looks even a little worse. May head south here soon toward Columbia for some chasing...I've heard Asgard Brewing is pretty awesome lol.

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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2019, 08:06:39 AM »
Interesting developments this morning, for sure....
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2019, 08:10:50 AM »
If I were chasing today I would target the Savannah-Selmar corridor.
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2019, 08:38:04 AM »
I think the HRRR and RAP will win the moisture return battle.  The main question is the storm mode as well. The HRRR is more aggressive with its storm mode and would support a potential outbreak, but some of the latest runs do get messy with the storm mode north of I-40.

The best chance for a strong tornado appears to be where MS/AL/TN come together.  Depending on how unstable things get there and the storm mode may be a brief window for a strong tornado in SE MO/SIL/Purchase of WKY.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Weather Thread, 3/9/2019
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2019, 08:40:06 AM »

The best chance for a strong tornado appears to be where MS/AL/TN come together.  Depending on how unstable things get there and the storm mode may be a brief window for a strong tornado in SE MO/SIL/Purchase of WKY.

Agreed. The best and most unstable ingredients really do look to come together around that area.

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