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Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 53958 times)

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Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #795 on: May 20, 2019, 09:11:28 PM »
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #796 on: May 20, 2019, 09:12:27 PM »
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen.  Same goes for Mets as well.  They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow.  I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media.  Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?

Instead we get a public in which most canít even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead.  People take that as gospel truth these days and canít see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event. 

Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.

Those days are long gone my friend. Once the general public gained access to online weather models and forums, every idiot in the world is now an amateur forecaster and preaches each run as the gospel. I do believe that NOAA/NWS etc have a responsibility at this point in time to take this issue seriously and come up with a solution.

As far as putting more funding towards forecasting/models, Obama cut 36 million from NWS in 2012. Trump wants to cut 75 million from NWS in his new budget. Don't see that getting any better anytime soon unfortunately.

Online StormNine

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #797 on: May 20, 2019, 09:37:33 PM »
Really with this setup, the safety fails worked.  This was a classic big picture setup.  The 500mb was perfect, plenty of CAPE, a raging low-level jet, you name it.  As always gets discussed it is the small issues.  This is a field where if a wind vector is supposed to blow due south and it veers slightly off then you just changed the storm mode.  In this case, it was storm spacing, an overzealous outflow boundary,  and a little bit of CIN in south-central Oklahoma that worked to cause this event to underperform.   

With that being said I do think caution needs to be used when determining threats.  We need to stay away from past comparisons and focus on the threats.  We do need to focus our attention at making our models especially our short term models better (the HRRR struggles with capping and CIN and that kinda stuff). 

In reality, we still have some work to do and sometimes events bust.  We had this same conversation with 02/23/2019, 04/05/2017, 02/28/2011, 04/24/2009, 04/10/2008, and 04/11/2005. This isn't something that has recently happened we have struggled at times with false positives.   


Offline bugalou

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #798 on: May 20, 2019, 09:42:09 PM »



As far as putting more funding towards forecasting/models, Obama cut 36 million from NWS in 2012. Trump wants to cut 75 million from NWS in his new budget. Don't see that getting any better anytime soon unfortunately.

Bingo.  People don't care until it affects them but it affects them eventually because people don't care.  I think its completely stupid to underfund an agency that helps predict phenomenon that can literally cost billions of dollars to states, yet  the first busted forecast is used as fodder to cut budgets. In sciences that are not completely understood, politics provide zero value towards the goal of better understanding it, and can actively trigger negative feedback loops driven by non scientific people. These people feel like they are doing something but in the end they are just damaging all of us as the weather does not factor in politics or opinion. It will do what it does despite all the rhetoric.

We must do better as forces abiding by the laws of nature will continue on regardless of humans.

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Offline Eric

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #799 on: May 20, 2019, 09:42:49 PM »
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....

Bruce just laid one out for us.   ::applause:: ::applause::

In all seriousness, the risk warranted the HIGH.  Forecasters can't get washed up in what will happen.  They must forecast what COULD happen.  I'm sure this threat will be dissected again and again, and I'm far from a degreed scientist, but it seems to me that the warm front didn't progress as far north as had been forecast and the inhibition eroded much earlier than anticipated allowing junk convection with the odd supercell to become the primary storm mode.  Just throwing ::poo:: and seeing what sticks.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2019, 09:46:20 PM by Eric »
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #800 on: May 20, 2019, 10:03:09 PM »
Still some pretty good cells going right now just north of Abilene. The one near Hamlin right now is textbook.

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #801 on: May 20, 2019, 10:49:37 PM »
I personally think a lot of prayers were answered this evening... plain and simple....

Very true

All in all it was just a weird day.  The one cell that put down a decent tornado was done after 5 min.  I watched on KOCO and it went from wedge to rope in the blink of the eye, when it normally would have become a long tracked nightmare. 

Thankful either way.  While I love watching everything unfold and the awesomeness of a tornado, Iíve been through my fair share and wouldnít wish that on anybody. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #802 on: May 21, 2019, 06:53:06 AM »
After some of the monster storms of recent years, they certainly deserve a break or bust or whatever you call it.  While the chasers were probably disappointed, the actual residents who live there are breathing a sigh of relief, along with prayers of thanks. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #803 on: May 21, 2019, 08:40:00 AM »
Seeing snow photos from friends and family east of the front range in Colorado (Colorado Springs and other places). Looks like a heavy, wet snow. Doesn't look like that cold air will ever make it anywhere near here.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 10:29:57 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Flash

Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #804 on: May 21, 2019, 11:32:53 AM »
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division. Also maybe just stop referring to past events as a comparison of what MIGHT happen.  Same goes for Mets as well.  They deserve part of the heck they catch tomorrow.  I saw so many references to 2011 today on social media.  Can we not just say here is what might happen if the cards fall right so pay close attention to the weather today?

Instead we get a public in which most canít even find themselves in a map all worked up with visions of F5 tornados and hundreds dead.  People take that as gospel truth these days and canít see that weather has a lot of variables that can prevent an event. 

Common sense weather coverage went out the door with ratings wars and Mets making Facebook videos showing every computer run and what might be.

I think it's okay to mention past events in the frame of, 'This is the most comprehensive setup since'...but I agree that many in the weather community have become too analog-dependent (I learned this hard way when composing my winter weather forecast last year). While it doesn't hurt to use analogs for internal reference, external mention should be minimized in this social media age since audiences at large lack context. Each present set of values and indices will forever be unique to the second in time they occur in. That's part of the foundation of meteorology.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 01:56:04 PM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #805 on: May 21, 2019, 01:31:48 PM »
We need to invest a ton into actual weather forecasting and shift funding away from the global warming division.

I disagree with this sentiment entirely.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #806 on: May 21, 2019, 01:56:05 PM »
I think it's okay to mention past events in the frame of, 'This is the most comprehensive setup since'...but I agree that many in the weather community have been become too analog-dependent (I learned this hard way when composing my winter weather forecast last year). While it doesn't hurt to use analogs for internal reference, external mention should be minimized in this social media age since audiences at large lack context. Each present set of values and indices will forever be unique to the second in time they occur in. That's part of the foundation of meteorology.


I think part of the problem is I heard some mets the day of and before this outbreak say " we ARE going to have a major outbreak...we ARE going to have multiple long track violent tornadoes" . That is ALWAYS a mistake to do.
Nobody is better at it in my opinion than James Spann , and he will usually say something to the effect of just explaining the dynamics of the storm system and that things are possible but we will just have to watch radar trends as the event develops...and that is what should have been done yesterday.
Nothing wrong with having a high risk because it was warranted .... however once radar trends began to show that it was just NOT going to happen (by as early as 3pm everything was clustered and becoming congealed) threats should have been reduced.
There needs to be a way to reduce a PDS tornado watch during the event into a standard tornado watch also if things are not developing imo

Offline Thundersnow

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Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #807 on: May 21, 2019, 04:42:51 PM »
I will say- it's kind of amazing that there's been such a dynamic system out west and into the Plains, bringing snow, severe weather, and flooding... and, we get quite literally nothing from it. It appears to be getting gradually hotter and drier over the next few days. That ridge is stout.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 05:56:17 PM by Thundersnow »

Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #808 on: May 21, 2019, 05:31:49 PM »
I will say- it's kind of amazing that there's been such a dynamic system out west and into the Plains, bringing snow, severe weather, and flooding... and, we get quite literally nothing from it. It appears to be getting gradually hotter and drier of the next few days. That ridge is stout.
yeah. afraid our weather  fixing to get into snooze fest mode big time now ... just the way we roll now these days ....
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 06:10:03 PM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #809 on: May 21, 2019, 06:57:20 PM »
My sister is in Denver for work this week. She sent me a picture of their snow. Obviously a very dynamic system.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

 

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