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Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 34431 times)

Eric(posting) label=, StormNine(posting) label=, wmp600 and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #675 on: May 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM »
Going go out on a limb bit here... think Tuesday has and will be the better chance for a decent severe event for the mid south ... gfs is showing fairly high instability and decent shear ... as for now timing is a lot better also coming in late afternoon early evening Tuesday ... to early to dig In on the main impacts just yet

Bruce don't do it ...... don't torture yourself LOL....:). I am waiting for fall severe season

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #676 on: May 17, 2019, 05:30:55 AM »
We had rain so heavy the roar of it on the roof woke me around 2AM and lasted for quite a while.  We even got some thunder and lightning, although it was oddly still with no wind.  To pop up like that completely unexpected was a bit surprising. 

Online Eric

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #677 on: May 17, 2019, 08:20:03 AM »
Bruce is striking out more than Bryce Harper. 

I'd stay away from starting any threads, my dude.
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Offline snowdog

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #678 on: May 17, 2019, 09:34:45 AM »
Southeast heat "death-ridge" looks likely.  ::hot::

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1129394347869388801

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #679 on: May 17, 2019, 10:20:56 AM »
Bruce is striking out more than Bryce Harper. 

I'd stay away from starting any threads, my dude.
lol. Just wish I was getting paid like Bryce. Trust me i will but chance still see some Tuesday
Come on severe wx season...

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #680 on: May 17, 2019, 04:23:06 PM »
Monday in the plains looks to either feature a widespread tornado outbreak or feature the MCS/potential Derecho of the year.

Backed winds, a nasty shear/CAPE combo, and weak to non-existant cap. 

Our threat on Tuesday (for West TN, West KY, NW MS peeps) is one we will probably not know till Monday Night/Early Tuesday because the overnight activity will determine our Tuesday threat level or lack of.  We could have a mean MCS moving our way, a decent to even significant severe weather event, or what we have been having so far this year which is pretty much nothing.   It all depends on Monday/Early Tuesday's activity.     
« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 04:24:48 PM by StormNine »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #681 on: May 17, 2019, 04:50:12 PM »
Monday in the plains looks to either feature a widespread tornado outbreak or feature the MCS/potential Derecho of the year.

Backed winds, a nasty shear/CAPE combo, and weak to non-existant cap. 

Our threat on Tuesday (for West TN, West KY, NW MS peeps) is one we will probably not know till Monday Night/Early Tuesday because the overnight activity will determine our Tuesday threat level or lack of.  We could have a mean MCS moving our way, a decent to even significant severe weather event, or what we have been having so far this year which is pretty much nothing.   It all depends on Monday/Early Tuesday's activity.   
well agree... Tuesday has a chance...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #682 on: May 17, 2019, 05:24:46 PM »
Looks like we jump straight from the 80ís to the mid 90ís this year. GFS has record heat late next week.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #683 on: May 17, 2019, 08:31:11 PM »
First true "death ridge" of the summer.  It's death to any precipitation or cooling thunderstorm that would attempt to develop. 



« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 08:33:29 PM by JayCee »
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #684 on: May 17, 2019, 09:55:03 PM »
Very large tornado in progress near Dodge City, KS, and well over 160kts GTG on velocities.


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Offline Flash

Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #685 on: May 18, 2019, 07:07:35 AM »
First true "death ridge" of the summer.  It's death to any precipitation or cooling thunderstorm that would attempt to develop. 



As much as I despise death ridges, if thereís any consolation, itís the fact rarely is our state smack dab in the middle of them. The way this year has started should somewhat put any summer 2007/2012 repeat talks to rest.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #686 on: May 18, 2019, 08:46:41 AM »
day 3 moderate risk for southern plains... wish I  was on vacation..lol  only bad thing im seeing on hodos... is  the cap isn't very strong... things could get messy little... keeping it from getting upgraded latter to a high risk
Come on severe wx season...

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #687 on: May 18, 2019, 09:31:44 AM »
Abilene, TX was hit by something earlier this morning.  A friend who works at a  nursing facility there had to evacuate the building as the walls were knocked down.

Monday looks fierce for strong to violent tornadoes (if the storm mode is able to stay discrete-semi-discrete) or if it stays a MCS then widespread 70-100MPH+ will likely occur instead.

Tuesday will depend on Monday.  West KY/TN might get involved but they will likely require a boundary or something to break the cap.   

Our first widespread 90s should follow.   

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #688 on: May 18, 2019, 09:43:21 AM »
First truly muggy morning in the foothills with dewpoints nearing the upper 60's.  Welcome to summer, about on time, as we close in on Memorial Day.

As we boil under the ridge, the west sees well below normal temps under the trough.  The Plains are in for some very stormy times being caught in the middle. 


Post Merge: May 18, 2019, 09:49:56 AM
As much as I despise death ridges, if thereís any consolation, itís the fact rarely is our state smack dab in the middle of them. The way this year has started should somewhat put any summer 2007/2012 repeat talks to rest.


Thankfully, we've had an abundance of rain this winter/spring, unlike 2007.  We started that summer with drought conditions already well underway, so there was little hope to avoid record heat that year.  That was the worst summer in the last two decades for the entire southeast U.S., leaving Georgia trying to re-draw the border with Tennessee just to gain access to our river.

That court dispute was just recently struck down:

https://newschannel9.com/news/local/tennessee-border-dispute-dead-after-georgia-governor-vetoes-bill-seeking-land-water-05-14-2019
 
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 09:52:18 AM by JayCee »
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #689 on: May 18, 2019, 10:24:43 AM »
Itís like someone flipped a switch- BAM itís summer from now on I guess. ::hot::

 

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