* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 34460 times)

StormNine, mamMATTus, cgauxknox and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 278
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #645 on: May 13, 2019, 03:41:54 PM »
you KNOW it has been a BORING year when everybody is salivating at a potential severe threat over the plains 6 days out lol....

when I see a significant threat for our area 48 hours in advance with consistent agreement, then I will bite. Long range didn't pan out in winter over our area and so far hasn't panned out as far as severe weather in our region more than 3 days out either.....

Bruce what is going on with all this snooze-fest weather lol

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,095
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #646 on: May 13, 2019, 04:29:27 PM »
you KNOW it has been a BORING year when everybody is salivating at a potential severe threat over the plains 6 days out lol....

when I see a significant threat for our area 48 hours in advance with consistent agreement, then I will bite. Long range didn't pan out in winter over our area and so far hasn't panned out as far as severe weather in our region more than 3 days out either.....

Bruce what is going on with all this snooze-fest weather lol

Do we need to rant/gripe/whine thread about this?  ;)
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 04:33:19 PM by Thundersnow »

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,924
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 124
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #647 on: May 14, 2019, 04:21:10 AM »
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Every outlook from Day 4 to 8 is highlighted.  Severe/Tornado Outbreak Sequence is of concern especially points north and west of our region but D6 may push it into our region and we may have activity further on down the line.

Remember we have had some outbreaks in our history at the end of May.  5/27/1917, the late May 2000 sequence, and 5/30/2004 come to mind.  Even for us severe weather season is not over.   

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,019
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1652
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #648 on: May 14, 2019, 05:31:45 AM »
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Every outlook from Day 4 to 8 is highlighted.  Severe/Tornado Outbreak Sequence is of concern especially points north and west of our region but D6 may push it into our region and we may have activity further on down the line.

Remember we have had some outbreaks in our history at the end of May.  5/27/1917, the late May 2000 sequence, and 5/30/2004 come to mind.  Even for us severe weather season is not over.
and what you know... spc has western areas mid south in risk already day 6... including parts west Tennessee... going be honest... havenít looked at a model in two weeks... so I guess I keep one eye open... but sure the same ole same ole start pop up .. another ark la Tex deal...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,152
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 559
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #649 on: May 14, 2019, 07:04:35 AM »
We were breaking record highs with mid 90s last year at this time. Itís a nice 47 degrees currently.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,989
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1441
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #650 on: May 14, 2019, 07:21:56 AM »
Last year, we skipped the great season of spring.  April was setting record lows with a cold rain falling most of the month.  It was about this time that we flipped the switch from early March to July, skipping April and May altogether.  It's been awesome to actually have a real spring this year. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,019
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1652
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #651 on: May 14, 2019, 07:39:15 AM »
Last year, we skipped the great season of spring.  April was setting record lows with a cold rain falling most of the month.  It was about this time that we flipped the switch from early March to July, skipping April and May altogether.  It's been awesome to actually have a real spring this year.
agree... now if we can only cash in on a true spring severe event... would cap off a perfect spring ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,989
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1441
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #652 on: May 14, 2019, 08:12:36 AM »
I donít think weíll completely escape some active severe weather for those who are missing it this year.  Late spring/summer MCS/MCC season may be particularly active, IMO, once summertime heat and humidity build, adding energy and instability above very wet ground widespread across the Plains and southeast. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 278
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #653 on: May 14, 2019, 08:35:54 AM »
Do we need to rant/gripe/whine thread about this?  ;)

HAHA...I guess it is never right to complain about a lack of severe weather since it can damage....just wanting something to track in our area for once....It's been quite a long time since we had a true supercell threat in our area....I do think this year we may see a true derecho or two though during summer

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,924
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 124
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #654 on: May 14, 2019, 12:46:37 PM »
The hits keep coming. 

1 foot+ snow expected over the Sierra Nevada Mountain range.  Hopefully, California can harness all of this water for future droughts.

While the Plains, Upper Midwest, and perhaps parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Upper South get impacted by severe weather the Wasatch Mountains will get to experience accumulating snow for nearly every time it happens.   

Offline NashRugger

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,081
  • Location: Biloxi, MS
  • current US Navy meteorologist & rugby player
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #655 on: May 14, 2019, 08:24:30 PM »
The amount of snow the Intermountain west, namely Colorado and Utah, have seen this past winter are practically heaven-sent with being well-above average that'll contribute to heavy runoff into rivers, particularly the Colorado.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,019
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1652
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #656 on: May 15, 2019, 07:52:49 AM »
Spc still has parts mid south in risk for Sunday... slightly ever so went further east with threat... havenít dug into models much... sure it will be mainly a damaging wind threat for us as the main energy rapidly moves in the Great Lakes ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Flash

Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #657 on: May 15, 2019, 10:09:01 AM »
Spc still has parts mid south in risk for Sunday... slightly ever so went further east with threat... havenít dug into models much... sure it will be mainly a damaging wind threat for us as the main energy rapidly moves in the Great Lakes ....

I'll take ANY threat right now 'enhanced' or higher regardless of its specialty.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 278
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #658 on: May 15, 2019, 10:44:20 AM »
nothing gonna happen for us it looks like....and it makes sense, this is the time of year where 80-90 percent of severe outbreaks are over the plains/upper midwest....our season for a possible tornado outbreak is basically over,

but a derecho around the ring of fire may be in our future come summertime, and the fall tornado season oct/nov is only 5 months away. Time to enjoy pool weather and backyard bbq's in the coming weeks

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,924
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 124
Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #659 on: May 15, 2019, 06:07:41 PM »
It looks like the initial round for the Plains and possibly over to our area on Sunday will probably be tempered by Veer-Back-Veer wind profiles. This means that storms will be more likely to run into each other and cluster up.  Typically Veer-Back-Veer setups feature a decent wind/hail threat but not really a solid tornado threat because the storm mode becomes more a multi-cell cluster versus the discrete or at least semi-discrete supercell mode that you want for a more noteworthy tornado threat. 

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/30/how-to-forecast-tornadoes-looking-for-what-could-go-wrong/

For more info on Veer-Back-Veer check the link above.   

 

Advertisement