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Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 42773 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #225 on: March 21, 2019, 08:25:55 AM »
The last High Risk was either 03/02/2012 (Northern Middle and Northeast TN), 5/25/2011 (West TN and West Middle TN) or 4/27/2011 (Southern Middle or Southeastern TN).

We are long overdue for a High Risk event as I believe we have the longest streak without a High Risk since they have been issued in the 1980s.  11/27/1994, 5/4 and 5/5/2003, 1/21/1999, 4/7/2006, and 2/5/2008 are also High Risk Days.

some others are 4-8-98 for southern mid tn( the Birmingham f5 (I just happened to be in B-ham that day SCARY), the Nashville tornado outbreak, 2002 veterans day outbreak and the November outbreak in 2005 are also memorable since they happened so late in the year. We have had many more high risks than people realize I think


Offline Eric

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #226 on: March 21, 2019, 08:44:33 AM »
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Montgomery Cos. (@MontCoSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #227 on: March 21, 2019, 08:48:26 AM »
SPC HIGH risk days...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

I think people will be surprised at how many the mid state has had....Veterans day 2002 , Nov 2005 and the 2006 outbreak are 3 that were particularly scary

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #228 on: March 21, 2019, 09:17:27 AM »
The Sun is peeking out here, which makes the convective nature of the HRRR later this afternoon highly plausible for east TN.  No severe weather, but convective T-showers with hail are very possible.  And it would be a good day to head to the mountains, as the HRRR shows some pretty intense snow showers there later today.

Off work today, so maybe I should head up there and see what happens.  One last look at snow, in a winter I've only seen it twice.  Tempting.

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #229 on: March 21, 2019, 09:41:48 AM »
Happy official first full day of spring everyone....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #230 on: March 21, 2019, 02:48:12 PM »
My folks in London, KY just sent me a pick of their back deck covered in sleet.  Those showers are now moving into and through the plateau and into the valley.  The sun is out here now after the rain ended, adding to the instability, so we may see some interesting weather this evening. 
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #231 on: March 21, 2019, 02:52:48 PM »
We've got bright sunshine here at the moment but the clouds to the north/northwest are very dark.  I agree that this could be an interesting evening to watch for weather developing,  with some potential excitement that shouldn't be connected to much if any risk of real damage.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #232 on: March 21, 2019, 04:03:55 PM »
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year.  This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.   

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #233 on: March 21, 2019, 04:35:52 PM »
Nothing wrong with a Tornado drought.


Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #234 on: March 21, 2019, 05:41:19 PM »
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.

I think we should probably be okay with that.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #235 on: March 21, 2019, 09:02:06 PM »
Weather forecast for the foreseeable future looks cool to pleasantly mild... a couple of systems but nothing too gangbusters right now.

I think we should probably be okay with that.

I am pretty cool with that.  Especially while we and areas upriver dry out.  Since I am getting on a plane next weekend it would be nice to not have too many delays or crazy turbulence.  It does look like things aren't as bad as they once appeared in the longer range (still may have one late March system to watch maybe). 

I still think the 2nd half of this spring has an above average threat for a severe weather sequence event due to the tendency at times to have SW USA troughing and our active jet stream pattern. 

Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #236 on: March 22, 2019, 08:31:39 AM »
We have had several years where we had at least 2 High Risks per year.  This is why this 7 or 8-year drought (depending on where you are at) is quite unusual.

agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #237 on: March 22, 2019, 10:21:56 AM »
agreed 100%. In our area going back to the 2011 april outbreak we had had a big rain shield a few hours before the event that prevents us from major outbreaks....it has happened so many times I cannot count....not saying it is a bad thing but just interesting that it keeps happening that way....also as I said yesterday the 2010 flood situation was a "high risk" severe day that turned into a rain shield also....quite interesting
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didnít have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 10:25:23 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #238 on: March 22, 2019, 11:30:22 AM »
the last really good severe outbreak I can recall that didnít have rain sheiild most day was the Super Tuesday event ... late that afternoon we had a really nice dry punch break through ... before the action began... the air really got un stable quick that evening

that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county

But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #239 on: March 22, 2019, 11:40:26 AM »
that one long track supercell that went from MS to KY fropped f2 damage 3 miles from me....you could hear it just over the hills here in lewis county

But just think april 2011....april 2014 were both potential disasters that we were spared from because of early morning/afternoon rains
it was a mcs came through late night early morning that screwed up the super 1974 outbreak for west Tennessee and east Arkansas ... but it set up outflow boundaries across middle and eastern Tennessee for a terrible situation we all know of course
Come on severe wx season...

 

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