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Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 34419 times)

StormNine(posting) label=, wmp600 and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline MSR041933

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #630 on: May 10, 2019, 09:35:55 AM »
South middle and east TN about to get another super soaker. 



But a decent break in the wet times may arrive after this latest soaking. 



Also, early next week continues to trend cooler with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the upper 60's for some of us.  Considering the strong May Sun angle, that's a pretty cool air mass coming in.
Looks like heaven to me for may..keep it coming cause we all knows whatís in store in August (humid heat)
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 09:37:47 AM by MSR041933 »
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #631 on: May 10, 2019, 04:36:21 PM »
The overall pattern, notably the 500mb level, is showing signs of a classic setup for the Plains roughly between 5/16-19 timeframe.

Offline Beth

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #632 on: May 10, 2019, 06:23:05 PM »
I am so ready for heat and humidity! Pool is open now. Our 7 yr old granddaughter has already been swimming every afternoon.  Mimi needs the water a bit warmer!  8)

Online StormNine

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #633 on: May 12, 2019, 12:05:01 PM »
There is cause for some alarm in the medium to long range models.  The 500mb looks good for an active Plains sequence starting Friday. Some 2004 comparisons have been made although I personally think it is too early to make those claims at this point. The question will be does the SE Ridge get beat down enough or will we have a strong enough system that we could also get involved later down the line. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #634 on: May 12, 2019, 04:58:03 PM »
Just got back home from KY visiting mom on her big day.  Looks like we had nearly 2 inches of rain IMBY since Friday.  Creeks are running high, and the ground is soaked.  Some dry days and sunshine would be welcome.

Oh, and happy Mother's Day to any mothers here!
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #635 on: May 13, 2019, 06:49:00 AM »
So do we re-open the fall thread for this week?  Cool, crisp, and sunny this morning in Knoxville.  I'm going to try and soak this up so I can remember it when we're 95 degrees with 96% humidity in July.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #636 on: May 13, 2019, 07:55:50 AM »
It certainly felt like fall this past weekend.  There was a definite chill in the air up in KY. 

As long as we remain in a wet pattern, we may have humidity, but extreme heat will have a hard time gaining a foothold with saturated soils going into late spring.  The Sun will be too busy trying to dry the ground and evaporating all the excess moisture from lush vegetation to add much heat to the atmosphere.  And we aren't the only area that's wet.  The southern & central Plains are also running well above normal in rainfall this spring with much of the area currently experiencing flooding.  That's normally where summer heat waves begin, as a huge ridge develops there and expands eastward over us.  That's not going to happen anytime soon with saturated soils sapping all the solar radiation.
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #637 on: May 13, 2019, 08:35:13 AM »
Several forecasters in various capacities (NOAA, academia, and private companies) are starting to really latch onto roughly May 19-25 period.

The overall synoptic pattern looks HIGHLY favorable for some extremely active weather for the Plains and into the Midwest. Even though it's 5-7 days out, I'd almost lock this in, at least in the modeled synoptic pattern. As we all know, smaller mesoscale features will make or break.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #638 on: May 13, 2019, 09:16:46 AM »
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #639 on: May 13, 2019, 09:25:09 AM »
Raleigh is getting rocked right now!

Post Merge: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM
Several forecasters in various capacities (NOAA, academia, and private companies) are starting to really latch onto roughly May 19-25 period.

The overall synoptic pattern looks HIGHLY favorable for some extremely active weather for the Plains and into the Midwest. Even though it's 5-7 days out, I'd almost lock this in, at least in the modeled synoptic pattern. As we all know, smaller mesoscale features will make or break.

Thatís well over a week away. Thatís some extremely high confidence this far in advance. If it comes to fruition I wonder if maybe we get impacted possibly toward the end of the month.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM by mamMATTus, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #640 on: May 13, 2019, 09:59:32 AM »
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)
and now we return you to your regular schedule boring weather pattern as itís in progress....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #641 on: May 13, 2019, 11:12:30 AM »
Raleigh is getting rocked right now!

Post Merge: May 13, 2019, 09:36:43 AM
Thatís well over a week away. Thatís some extremely high confidence this far in advance. If it comes to fruition I wonder if maybe we get impacted possibly toward the end of the month.
I personally have some pretty decent confidence this far out given model agreement and consistent overall upper level pattern. As I said, I'm confident in that but the devil lies in the details with the finer parts that could make or break a day.

Offline Crockett

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #642 on: May 13, 2019, 11:20:20 AM »
It certainly felt like fall this past weekend.  There was a definite chill in the air up in KY. 

As long as we remain in a wet pattern, we may have humidity, but extreme heat will have a hard time gaining a foothold with saturated soils going into late spring.  The Sun will be too busy trying to dry the ground and evaporating all the excess moisture from lush vegetation to add much heat to the atmosphere.  And we aren't the only area that's wet.  The southern & central Plains are also running well above normal in rainfall this spring with much of the area currently experiencing flooding.  That's normally where summer heat waves begin, as a huge ridge develops there and expands eastward over us.  That's not going to happen anytime soon with saturated soils sapping all the solar radiation.

As much as I have enjoyed a "true" spring without jumping straight from winter to summer, low 60s in mid May is a little weird. Not too weird if it only lasts a day or 2; we can call that blackberry winter. But when I look at the cool and damp pattern that seems to be stretching on without an end in sight, I begin to suspect that I'll be griping right alongside Bruce here shortly.  ;D The GFS had been hinting at the first widespread 90s by Memorial Day weekend. Now it's showing wet and cool for that weekend. Bleh.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #643 on: May 13, 2019, 02:32:15 PM »
Never fear, warmer weather will appear.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #644 on: May 13, 2019, 02:55:28 PM »
Well looks like we escape yet another severe weather spring season without a major event and for once enjoying some actual spring temps :)


Chickens...... hatch..... donít count

 

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