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Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 21965 times)

gcbama, BRUCE, Nash_LSU and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #435 on: April 11, 2019, 07:18:15 PM »
We may not be done with cold weather.  A cold shot with legs and possible freezing or frosty temps is showing up around 4/21.  Even some snow possible in the higher elevations.   :P
The good thing is that just the week prior was modeled to be a lot colder than it has been and I fully expect models to back off the cold again.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #436 on: April 11, 2019, 09:32:11 PM »
I know we are a Tennessee forum but Saturday's event to our south could be bigger than anything this region has seen in a long time.  If you have family anywhere in southern AR or all of LA tell them to be weather aware.

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #437 on: April 12, 2019, 01:11:12 AM »
A lot of active weather. You have to somewhat welcome shots of cooler air to serve way to good thunderstorms and or severe weather outbreaks. I am in Denver Sunday - Tues then out to Tahoe for 3-4 days to get in some riding. Epic season and now that we have 50's during the day, its like spring at 6k+ with great corn snow. Back Friday and maybe in time for some cooler weather. Morel season has been fantastic so far, looking to get more time in. I think some good weather is ahead for everyone.


Offline MSR041933

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #438 on: April 12, 2019, 04:38:36 AM »
Moderate issued for the suspected areas
"The only thing that can stop a BAD guy with a gun is a GOOD guy with a gun"

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #439 on: April 12, 2019, 05:24:04 AM »
Tennessee is included in the Day 3 with an Enhanced Risk from the Cumberland Plateau and eastward.

It appears to be dynamics driven as low-level lapse rates are not as impressive so likely damaging winds will be the main threat with a line or broken lines of storms.  Isolated tornadoes are also possible. 

Tomorrow from Arklatex to Arklamiss looks quite impressive. If the storm mode is able to stay discrete and they avoid a messy storm mode then strong to violent tornadoes are possible across that area.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #440 on: April 12, 2019, 07:30:26 AM »
Disco from SPC regarding Sunday:

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday -- centered over
   the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and central and southern
   Appalachians.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid- and upper-level trough exiting the Plains early in the
   period is expected to advance steadily east across the
   Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and central Gulf Coast states,
   reaching a position from the lower Great Lakes to the southern
   Appalachians/Southeast late in the period.

   At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to shift east-northeast
   across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then across the central
   Appalachians to the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
   Widespread thunderstorms -- and a broad severe risk -- will
   accompany this system.

   ...The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians south to the
   Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in a
   north-south band from Indiana to Alabama early in the period, ahead
   of the advancing cold front.  As modest heating of a moistening
   pre-frontal warm sector commences, 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
   is expected to evolve ahead of the ongoing band of convection, from
   the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.  This should result in a gradual
   intensification of storms through the afternoon, aided by a very
   strong deep-layer wind field accompanying this storm system --
   including 80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels.

   Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with
   embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts.  Damaging winds will
   likely be the primary threat, though tornadoes will also be possible
   across much of the area -- particularly near and west of the
   mountains.  Risk should diminish gradually through the evening,
   though local wind risk may persist through the end of the period.


East TN is not often in the bulls-eye of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather forecast, so when we are, I sit up and take notice. 
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 07:35:12 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #441 on: April 12, 2019, 11:40:18 AM »
Hey guys, can somebody give me their thoughts on when the rain will move into mid tn tomorrow? Fixing to go mow all I can today, what are my odds of getting in any mowing tomorrow. I've been busy and haven't had time to keep up.Thanks in advance.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #442 on: April 12, 2019, 12:38:11 PM »
Good grief. The HRR is downright scary for Louisiana and south Arkansas tomorrow. Tried to post pic but will not let me.

Online gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #443 on: April 12, 2019, 01:08:20 PM »
Good grief. The HRR is downright scary for Louisiana and south Arkansas tomorrow. Tried to post pic but will not let me.

south ark/Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama have definitely been the big "winner/loser" in the past decade as far as dixie alley goes hands down. We seem to be on the fringes in the past few years which I guess is not a bad thing

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #444 on: April 12, 2019, 02:20:38 PM »
East TN is not often in the bulls-eye of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather forecast, so when we are, I sit up and take notice.
I'm the same way.  It's certainly warmed up and gotten windy this afternoon ahead of the system.  I'm glad the ground has had some opportunity to dry out and that the trees aren't fully leafed out yet; the combination of those two factors may save us some damage and power outages with this system.  I think Sunday is going to be a good one to stay home and read a good book while things go crazy outside.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #445 on: April 12, 2019, 02:46:36 PM »
More soggy days ahead over the next 7:



"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #446 on: April 12, 2019, 04:24:33 PM »
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Online gcbama

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #447 on: April 12, 2019, 04:55:41 PM »
Shreveport Monroe north Alexandria ....looks quite quite dangerous....I believe there "might" be a chance of a small high risk zone down that way tomorrow

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #448 on: April 12, 2019, 07:11:34 PM »
Shreveport Monroe north Alexandria ....looks quite quite dangerous....I believe there "might" be a chance of a small high risk zone down that way tomorrow

Fairly confident we get one. The question is does it come with the first day one or the second outlook

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread
« Reply #449 on: April 12, 2019, 11:00:24 PM »
Summer's a 'comin.  Saw the first lightning bugs tonight. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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