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Author Topic: Spring 2019 - Severe Weather Thread  (Read 11187 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #135 on: March 11, 2019, 08:54:41 AM »
2 days ago models said sunny and mid 60ís for Monday.  Well obviously that is not gonna happen.  Low 50ís and rain.  Models are useless these days it seems.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #136 on: March 11, 2019, 09:00:28 AM »
Thankfully, the models were wrong about Wednesday's extreme heavy rain event they were showing last week with a stalled front.  While we'll see rain later this week, it's nothing out of the ordinary for March.

West TN looks to receive the heaviest amounts in the next 7 days, while eastern areas see an inch or less. 



« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 09:03:47 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #137 on: March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 AM »
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #138 on: March 11, 2019, 09:06:31 AM »
No offense, Matthew, but I find many of your posts to be unreasonably negative. I'm no meteorologist, but I wouldn't argue models are useless at all just because they can't always predict the future.

Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days. 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #139 on: March 11, 2019, 09:17:18 AM »
Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.

 ::pondering:: That's a safe bet in the winter season. 2018-2019 was painful for snow lovers and model watchers. It was like the State Farm commerical with the fisherman dangling the dollar in front of us and jerking it away when we tried to snatch it. We'd kill for even just a 1" event and couldn't get it. ::rant::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #140 on: March 11, 2019, 09:33:13 AM »
Let me correct my statement.  Models are useless beyond 3-5 days these days.

There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed.  And I get it.  This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed.  And long-range models sucked this year. 

Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather.  While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality.  Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use.  Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days. 

Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter.  We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment.  But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year. 

In the meantime, have some ice cream.  It always makes me feel better.   ;)
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #141 on: March 11, 2019, 09:41:53 AM »
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it.  ::evillaugh::

Offline JHart

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #142 on: March 11, 2019, 10:05:43 AM »
The winter failed because of me. I moved to St. Louis on January 4th and a week later 11" got dumped. I took it with me, sorry about it.  ::evillaugh::

Or, perhaps, St. Louis only got eleven inches because you were there.   ::guitar::

Perspective, like commas, matters.   :laugh:
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #143 on: March 11, 2019, 11:36:37 AM »
This winter didn't have much effect on me because, honestly, I think I've been jaded for years when it comes to winter weather. I never really felt it coming into this winter... and, I never really bought into any of the optimistic assessments earlier on. It's just par for the course.

I guess I'm getting to an age when I realize life is too short to dwell on things like that. If we ever get another nice, big snowfall again, then I hope to enjoy that when the time comes. Until then, life goes on.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 12:01:53 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #144 on: March 11, 2019, 12:14:52 PM »
I left my dogs outside today. Wasnít expecting rain at all.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #145 on: March 11, 2019, 12:50:46 PM »
Thursday looks stormy. I'm wishful for some interesting severe weather on that day.

After that, any severe threat is marginal until late in the month. It will feel less like spring and more like November come time for the equinox. Fortunately, we are likely to dry out a bit along with the cooler air.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #146 on: March 11, 2019, 02:02:52 PM »
There was a huge shift in your outlook as winter progressed.  And I get it.  This winter left many of us feeling jaded and disappointed.  And long-range models sucked this year. 

Nevertheless, our current weather models are the best we've got, and the best fallible humans can come up with to predict future events in a dynamic and very chaotic system like Earth's weather.  While far from perfect, or even good at times, they haven't been around that long in reality.  Go back 50 years and look at what forecasters had to use.  Tomorrow's weather was hard to forecast back then, and you could forget 3-5 days. 

Having said that, I do understand your frustration with models and long range forecasts after this winter.  We all had a bitter pill to swallow as winter progressed and our high hopes were dashed on the rocks of disappointment.  But, all we can do is let it go and hope for something better next year. 

In the meantime, have some ice cream.  It always makes me feel better.   ;)

I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.  The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand.  We donít understand what is happening ourselves.  The models for some reason have a cold bias these days.  Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days.  I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends.  I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny.  Just no 40ís and rain please.  Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that! 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #147 on: March 11, 2019, 02:10:18 PM »
I agree Jaycee.  Models do help with near term.  I believe the climate is changing at a much quicker pace these days.  The models are not able to understand all the changes because it takes human input to help them understand.  We donít understand what is happening ourselves.  The models for some reason have a cold bias these days.  Only to be warmer as we get within 2-3 days.  I see us slightly cooler to near normal when March ends.  I can tolerate 55-60 and sunny.  Just no 40ís and rain please.  Soccer is much more enjoyable wo that!

The models sure screwed up today's forecast.  We've had a half inch of rain on a day it wasn't supposed to rain at all here.  Now that's model madness.   :o
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #148 on: March 11, 2019, 04:25:46 PM »
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.   

The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.   

Offline Curt

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Re: Spring 2019
« Reply #149 on: March 11, 2019, 05:30:00 PM »
Our mid-week storm may be better known as "An American Wind Machine" versus any type of water attraction.   

The WPSD in house model showed 50MPH+ winds in NW TN and Western KY on Thursday and its expansive potentially sub 975MB strength suggests a very potent cyclone and a whole lot of wind advisories and high wind warnings needed across the country.


That **might** require a high wind warning. Itís just behind the front too

 

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