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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 12641 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #105 on: November 05, 2018, 03:03:08 PM »
Not sure if matters but...

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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #106 on: November 05, 2018, 03:16:37 PM »
There is no ďsoupyĒ feeling outside right now in Franklin. If anything itís the exact opposite.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #107 on: November 05, 2018, 03:24:06 PM »
There is no ďsoupyĒ feeling outside right now in Franklin. If anything itís the exact opposite.

Airmass modification slowly taking place.  Dew points at Huntsville jumped two degrees in an hour.  Up to 65/62.  BNA is at 70/55 so a ton of mixing has taken place.  Dew points still progged to increase with time. 
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #108 on: November 05, 2018, 03:30:04 PM »
Airmass modification slowly taking place.  Dew points at Huntsville jumped two degrees in an hour.  Up to 65/62.  BNA is at 70/55 so a ton of mixing has taken place.  Dew points still progged to increase with time.

Yay early day sunshine. Maybe for a nice day before clouds moved back in!
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #109 on: November 05, 2018, 04:10:02 PM »
That is a LOT of prefrontal convection over the West/Middle TN line right now. Surely that has to have a major impact on severity later.

Online Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #110 on: November 05, 2018, 04:14:10 PM »
That is a LOT of prefrontal convection over the West/Middle TN line right now. Surely that has to have a major impact on severity later.

May be why the ENHANCED was oriented the way it was.  Current motion carries the bulk of the crapvection north of BNA.
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #111 on: November 05, 2018, 04:28:06 PM »
May be why the ENHANCED was oriented the way it was.  Current motion carries the bulk of the crapvection north of BNA.

Very true did not think about that.

Might not be applicable and I may not know what I'm talking about, but could any of those storms gust out and leave outflow boundaries in place for later or is that more of a spring/summer time thing?

Online Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2018, 04:29:45 PM »
Very true did not think about that.

Might not be applicable and I may not know what I'm talking about, but could any of those storms gust out and leave outflow boundaries in place for later or is that more of a spring/summer time thing?

No, it's definitely possible.  Now, what impact they'll have is the $64,000 question.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2018, 04:41:45 PM »
Multiple confirmed tornadoes already down in LA...
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Offline Farris_TN

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2018, 04:55:05 PM »
Rain now moving in to Middle TN. For those of us that arenít a fan of severe weather, the rain now may help take whatever CAPE could have been present and lessen the chance of tornadoes. The speed of the winds aloft will blow the tops of the storms reducing severe potential. Without CAPE severe ainít happening.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2018, 04:57:29 PM »
Rain now moving in to Middle TN. For those of us that arenít a fan of severe weather, the rain now may help take whatever CAPE could have been present and lessen the chance of tornadoes. The speed of the winds aloft will blow the tops of the storms reducing severe potential. Without CAPE severe ainít happening.

??? Do you really think this?

Offline Farris_TN

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2018, 05:12:54 PM »
??? Do you really think this?

Yes...Do you not? Do you believe youíll get storms with no CAPE?

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #117 on: November 05, 2018, 05:16:26 PM »
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1622.html

That is a new function of a mesoscale discussion. 

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2018, 05:17:29 PM »
Rain now moving in to Middle TN. For those of us that arenít a fan of severe weather, the rain now may help take whatever CAPE could have been present and lessen the chance of tornadoes. The speed of the winds aloft will blow the tops of the storms reducing severe potential. Without CAPE severe ainít happening.

For those east of 65 and south of 40 might go unaffected by the modeled crapvection.  Atmosphere is still undergoing modification.  The ENHANCED risk was laid out taking this into account.  Don't discount an event for those that haven't yet or won't be affected by ongoing events.  We know you dislike severe wx, and that's cool, but don't get fooled into complacency.
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Offline Farris_TN

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #119 on: November 05, 2018, 05:20:30 PM »
For those east of 65 and south of 40 might go unaffected by the modeled crapvection.  Atmosphere is still undergoing modification.  The ENHANCED risk was laid out taking this into account.  Don't discount an event for those that haven't yet or won't be affected by ongoing events.  We know you dislike severe wx, and that's cool, but don't get fooled into complacency.

Oh I apologize if it seemed I was discounting it, I was simply stating that there is hope for those of us that donít want severe weather. The situation absolutely needs to be watched.

Sorry for any confusion.

 

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