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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 12586 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #75 on: November 05, 2018, 07:13:51 AM »
They expanded the Enhanced zone a bit NE to include Nashville and Lebanon once again.

They also introduced a hatched tornado risk for SW TN,Northern MS, and NW AL.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #76 on: November 05, 2018, 07:16:02 AM »
They expanded the Enhanced zone a bit NE to include Nashville and Lebanon once again.

They also introduced a hatched tornado risk for SW TN,Northern MS, and NW AL.
must. Admit... I did not see that coming ... fairly large area  west tn 10 percent hatched tornado
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #77 on: November 05, 2018, 07:20:47 AM »
must. Admit... I did not see that coming ... fairly large area  west tn 10 percent hatched tornado

Same, but I guess they aren’t thinking we are going to see much in the way of pre-event convection to rob the available instability from taking hold.
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #78 on: November 05, 2018, 08:05:46 AM »
No crapvection and I am seeing hints of cloud breaks on imagery... If we get cloud breaks things will change

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #79 on: November 05, 2018, 08:07:11 AM »
Getting nice breaks in clouds here now ...!see on satellite  imagery warm air is surging north oretty fast .. that push dews up toward mid 60s later ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #80 on: November 05, 2018, 08:09:00 AM »
HRR and Nam have definitely ramped up severe weather parameters near Memphis between 4-8 tonight. Cape nearing 1200 sneaks right up the MS river into SW Tn

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #81 on: November 05, 2018, 08:12:10 AM »
HRR and Nam have definitely ramped up severe weather parameters near Memphis between 4-8 tonight. Cape nearing 1200 sneaks right up the MS river into SW Tn
yeah that caught my attention for sure
Come on severe wx season...

Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #82 on: November 05, 2018, 09:56:30 AM »
Whats the timing on this  in the Jackson area?

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #83 on: November 05, 2018, 10:05:29 AM »
Whats the timing on this  in the Jackson area?
6. To. 9 clock pm. Give take there ... could see some renegade cells little earlier ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Farris_TN

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #84 on: November 05, 2018, 10:25:13 AM »
The NAM 3km seems to keep the worst of the weather in Southern Middle TN. It has more individual cells popping up before the line but they don't have much to work with. It has the main line moving through Middle TN around 12:00 AM.

The 15z HRRR brings the severe ingredients a little farther north into Middle TN but it's still on the low end. It has the main line coming through around 10:00 PM.

The 15z RAP is pretty much in line with the HRRR except brings the line in around 11:00 PM.

We absolutely still need to watch this system but I believe the tornado potential is not as high in Middle TN. This should be more of a damaging wind threat.

Above was posted before SPC updated the Day 1
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Post Merge: November 05, 2018, 10:34:38 AM
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SPC moved the Tornado Potential more North and East and included Nashville in the hatched.

What are they seeing that is causing them to raise the threat?

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« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 10:35:37 AM by Farris_TN »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #85 on: November 05, 2018, 10:37:09 AM »
The sun is out in Franklin. Temp at 61, dewpoint at 40.

Offline vanster67

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #86 on: November 05, 2018, 11:38:47 AM »
everyone stay safe today.  currently 58 degrees in monterey with a dewpoint of 51.  saw in weather history that back on nov 5th 1994 giles county TN had an F-2 tornado touchdown on the ground for 7 miles.  thankfully no injuries.

Offline Cyrgeetar

Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #87 on: November 05, 2018, 11:42:51 AM »
The sun is out in Franklin. Temp at 61, dewpoint at 40.


It appears the dewpoint in Franklin has shot up to the mid-50's in the last hour.  ::coffee::

Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #88 on: November 05, 2018, 11:54:50 AM »
South Carroll Co....temp 64,  dewpoint 54,  humidity  81%

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #89 on: November 05, 2018, 12:01:28 PM »
Starting to think SPC brought the 10% hatched area back over more of Middle TN because they’re thinking there may be more destabilization than modeled. Dewpoints seem to be rapidly rising and certainly temps. I think afternoon highs may be more than forecasted. Rapidly decreasing cloud cover here in Williamson County.

 

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