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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 12573 times)

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Offline NismoWx

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #60 on: November 04, 2018, 01:43:59 PM »
Fresh SPC update enlarges hatched ENH up into KY.  Going to be a busy day tomorrow for some folks.
And I have to drive to Evansville and back tomorrow for work. Lucky me.

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #61 on: November 04, 2018, 02:43:00 PM »
I mean there always is the chance. Thats why I feel they are holding off on Mod. By noon tomorrow we should have a better idea of what if any potential this actually has. At least we all will probably get some rain out of this.
no rain for you... models showing skipping your house... :D
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #62 on: November 04, 2018, 04:40:19 PM »
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #63 on: November 04, 2018, 05:00:50 PM »
18Z 3km NAM showing the storms hitting every major TN city:

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Remember: If you are in EST, subtract 5 hours from Zulu. If you are in CST, subtract 6 hours from Zulu.

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Offline Hunter_McDonald

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #64 on: November 04, 2018, 05:03:09 PM »
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.

What part of northern MS? All the way west to east?


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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #65 on: November 04, 2018, 05:34:36 PM »
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.
think I’m going wait on the 0z suits.  Never trusted 18 z suits no matter what it shows to be honest ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #66 on: November 04, 2018, 05:36:25 PM »
18z nam sure looks like a lot of crapvection starting around the MS river around 1-2pm tomorrow. It just trains over the 40 corridor for hours from Memphis to Nashville- up to 4 inches of rain in places. The better places for severe sure look like northern MS and NW AL- but the system starts pulling away as instability finally increases in those areas. If I were betting- Northern MS looks about best for the most significant impacts. I wouldn’t rule it out further north but that training of rain will erase any instability. Gonna be a wet afternoon either way.

I'm guess the crapvection potential is exactly why they haven't gone Mod.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #67 on: November 04, 2018, 05:46:29 PM »
I'm guess the crapvection potential is exactly why they haven't gone Mod.
main reason was over night model runs back off cape values... interesting see if tonight it holds.  But it’s about short range time anyways ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #68 on: November 04, 2018, 06:11:19 PM »
Thats the same thing. If theres no cape then that allows for the crapvection lol. I could see the enhanced being trimmed tomorrow further south honestly but we will see.
thats not reason showing cape was lowered ... one less amped trough.  Which have hard time pulling good dps north... if anything think enhanced maybe gonlittke further east northeast.  We see
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #69 on: November 04, 2018, 07:08:41 PM »
Thats the same thing. If theres no cape then that allows for the crapvection lol. I could see the enhanced being trimmed tomorrow further south honestly but we will see.

Not sure atmospheric processes work that way.
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #70 on: November 04, 2018, 08:51:32 PM »
I just don't even.....

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #71 on: November 04, 2018, 09:23:21 PM »
I just saw WKRN's RPM house model and it showed the system moving in much quicker than anything I've seen so far. Lots of discrete activity or crapvection(can't tell which) breaking out as early as the 6-7pm time frame along the West/Middle TN line. Broken QLCS somewhat supercellular-looking pushes through Nashville in the 9-10pm time frame.

*I know nothing about the accuracy of the RPM, in-house or otherwise and really don't watch WKRN much.*

Offline Curt

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #72 on: November 04, 2018, 09:34:25 PM »
0z nam looks to have general thunderstorms starting in the Memphis area around 1pm. Maybe if I’m not corrected by someone more knowledgeable- looks to be a window for severe locally from 5-8 in the metro as the cold front moves through. Higher cape values are further south of the TN-MS line but trying to sneak up from the delta. I would think Memphis area has a narrow window for some spin ups. Heavy rain is almost a given at this point.

Keep in mind- I’m more of an amateur at severe than winter. Someone like Frogge can maybe comment better than me for this area anyway.

Online StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #73 on: November 05, 2018, 06:06:27 AM »
The HRRR/latest NAM is trending to a more unstable airmass particularly for the Memphis area and Northern MS.  The crapvectionzone is shown more along the KY/Tn border versus I-40 area.  If that is realized then it is game on for a decent severe weather with damaging winds and tornadoes with a broken line of supercells and bow echos.  CAPE values range from around 300j/kg on the KY/TN border to 1000j/kg in Memphis and that will be enough with the low-level shear to have a decent fall severe event.  We will see how this goes and how far the greater moisture return/instability can advect northward.   

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #74 on: November 05, 2018, 06:30:34 AM »
thats not reason showing cape was lowered ... one less amped trough.  Which have hard time pulling good dps north... if anything think enhanced maybe gonlittke further east northeast.  We see

gonlittke goes good with a cup of covfefe.


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