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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 14155 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2018, 01:19:28 AM »
Possible upgrade to moderate risk may be coming per latest outlook....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2018, 06:38:47 AM »
Wise decision on waiting to go Mod I think.

Post Merge: November 04, 2018, 06:55:15 AM
I have no idea about the resolution for the Euro from weathermodels.us, or if the 1hr precip is the right parameter to be using, but the 9:00pm-2:00am time frame looks very concerning for Western/Middle TN and especially North Miss/AL. It's almost as if it doesn't go fully QLCS until just after it passes Nashville, meaning everything before/after that is mostly super-cellular?? I have to be very wrong on this and not even close to being right lol. Damnit I wish I had that $25 a month for WxBell.

Edit: I have no idea why I didn't use dBz. Didn't even see it.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 07:00:40 AM by mamMATTus »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2018, 06:56:55 AM »
New graphic from OHX... [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

According to their AFD, they seem to be more focused on the squall line threat than the supercell potential.

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2018, 08:13:16 AM »
The storm mode will likely be a broken up line/cluster type.  This would potentially deliver a higher tornado threat than most typical squall lines especially within the gaps of the line because those storms would have the chance to get more inflow.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2018, 08:25:05 AM »
The storm mode will likely be a broken up line/cluster type.  This would potentially deliver a higher tornado threat than most typical squall lines especially within the gaps of the line because those storms would have the chance to get more inflow.

Yep


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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #50 on: November 04, 2018, 11:35:09 AM »
Fresh SPC update enlarges hatched ENH up into KY.  Going to be a busy day tomorrow for some folks.
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #51 on: November 04, 2018, 11:41:09 AM »
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like 12z GFS moves the threat more north and east and puts Nashville more or less in the bullseye.  ::popcorn::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #52 on: November 04, 2018, 11:42:17 AM »
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like 12z GFS moves the threat more north and east and puts Nashville more or less in the bullseye.  ::popcorn::
correct    middle tennessee nowhas the better tornado chance...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #53 on: November 04, 2018, 11:45:00 AM »
correct    middle tennessee nowhas the better tornado chance...

**** it. Why can't this happen during the day when I can chase.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #54 on: November 04, 2018, 11:45:46 AM »
correct    middle tennessee nowhas the better tornado chance...

No....

Its still a small part of SW Tennessee, N Mississippi, and NW Alabama with the best tornado chances.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #55 on: November 04, 2018, 11:47:05 AM »
**** it. Why can't this happen during the day when I can chase.
100 percent agree with u... seem s  like night time our best chance... boosted by lower level jet influence ...

Post Merge: November 04, 2018, 11:49:03 AM
No....

Its still a small part of SW Tennessee, N Mississippi, and NW Alabama with the best tornado chances.
seems to me frogge, best cape with shear proflies come together better slightly more east now... were by no means out the woods here west tn or even se arkansas for that matter... ::coffee::
« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 11:49:03 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #56 on: November 04, 2018, 11:52:22 AM »
The SPC expanded the area for wind not tornadoes IMHO. Will there be tornado warnings in middle TN? Yes. Are the dynamics that we saw a few days ago for MS and AL now creeping into middle TN? No....  Even areas that yesterday looked like they might go moderate today look like solid enhanced areas. Still a big event just not what it looked like a few days ago.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #57 on: November 04, 2018, 11:59:38 AM »
The SPC expanded the area for wind not tornadoes IMHO. Will there be tornado warnings in middle TN? Yes. Are the dynamics that we saw a few days ago for MS and AL now creeping into middle TN? No....  Even areas that yesterday looked like they might go moderate today look like solid enhanced areas. Still a big event just not what it looked like a few days ago.
actually yeah  dynamics are creeping up north, especially for mid state area... further out ahead of the cold front... along alabama southern tn line looks to be hot spot for a tornado... perhaps a significant at that... back west looks like nice qlcs type with embedded super cells within...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #58 on: November 04, 2018, 01:02:37 PM »
There may be a small window for an isolated strong tornado in SW and SW Middle TN/N MS/NW AL, but that will depend on mesoscale processes.  Overall this will be a messy cluster/ multi-cell to possibly supercell mixed bag storm mode.  There is enough shear to have a tornado/wind threat with the strongest storms but if there is a lot of pre-severe storm junk out in the warm sector then that will really lower the severe threat.   

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #59 on: November 04, 2018, 01:31:44 PM »
There may be a small window for an isolated strong tornado in SW and SW Middle TN/N MS/NW AL, but that will depend on mesoscale processes.  Overall this will be a messy cluster/ multi-cell to possibly supercell mixed bag storm mode.  There is enough shear to have a tornado/wind threat with the strongest storms but if there is a lot of pre-severe storm junk out in the warm sector then that will really lower the severe threat.

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