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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 15008 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2018, 03:57:53 PM »
Now. Nam joins the party.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2018, 05:45:21 PM »
I wonder if part of the problem is the frequency over the past couple of years of the media going crazy over severe potential, to the point of schools closing early to avoid the predicted storms, and then what hits is some drizzle.  This isn't a criticism of the forecasters or of erring on the side of safety, just that there seems to be so much bust potential for severe outbreaks recently that I think people are overlooking them.  That's dangerous, but also human nature.

This is the exact thing I was worrying about and I think itís happened. The public has largely become complacent for any severe threat. IMO, the last several systems have busted badly, especially any MOD risk...it hasnít come close to verifying. Now the public considers it crying wolf. There is only so many times that can happen before the public as a whole stops believing. Now we have a system coming in that really looks like a serious threat and now itís not getting any serious attention except for us weather nerds. Now itís fall meaning people are even less likely to take a severe threat seriously for a number of reasons.

Offline EastTNWX

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2018, 05:52:37 PM »
True severe weather is just so rare in Tennessee and isolated when it happens.  It's not something that will affect many people in TN any given year.  Winter weather is much more impactful in this state.  I know severe weather CAN happen, no one needs to chime in saying it happens, the reality is that its just not common.  That all being said, there's wording in the 7 day forecast for snow for the Knoxville area!

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2018, 06:04:09 PM »
Feel free to move or delete if too far off topic, but there used to be an FB page called "East TN Storm Trackers" that had thousands of followers. Realized I hadn't seen a post by them in quite some time so I went to check to see if they had said anything about this event...page deleted. Anyone know when that happened or why? Not a big deal to me at all since it was more/less an NWS info relay, just curious.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2018, 06:07:02 PM »
True severe weather is just so rare in Tennessee and isolated when it happens.  It's not something that will affect many people in TN any given year.  Winter weather is much more impactful in this state.  I know severe weather CAN happen, no one needs to chime in saying it happens, the reality is that its just not common.  That all being said, there's wording in the 7 day forecast for snow for the Knoxville area!
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2018, 06:36:29 PM »
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::

East TN: Snow > Severe
West TN: Severe > Snow

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2018, 07:06:58 PM »
A big part of why this system is not receiving a lot of coverage is because Tuesday is one of the most heated Mid-Term election Days in US History.  This severe weather event happens to fall right in that timeframe where the focus will be on elections. 

Other reasons include some fairly higher-end severe threats going bust.  We have had only 2 MDT Risks that verified since 2014 (12/23/2015 and 3/1/2018).  The cry-wolf effect from media and especially social media has an impact. 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2018, 08:16:43 PM »
The cry-wolf effect from media and especially social media has an impact.

Thanks, Mike Seidel.

Offline Crockett

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2018, 08:28:09 PM »
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::

Grammatical skills seem to be becoming less common as well.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2018, 08:35:02 PM »
Grammatical skills seem to be becoming less common as well.

I figured out Bruce is Tennessee Storm Chaser on TW purely based on this.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2018, 09:20:47 PM »
Big severe event modeled little over 48 hours out ... and this thread is turning into talking bout Bruce ... come on... letís stay on topic pease
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2018, 10:15:38 PM »
If I was going to chase this far out my target zone would be southern Middle TN/North Al. But I wouldnít do that without daylight.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2018, 10:24:59 PM »
If I was going to chase this far out my target zone would be southern Middle TN/North Al. But I wouldnít do that without daylight.
we are going to start off sw towards the delta regions.  Work our way back east
Come on severe wx season...

Offline EastTNWX

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2018, 11:13:15 PM »
severe weather rare in tennessee... laughable... you couldnt be more wrong... look at stats... snow is whats coming more rare in tennessee...  ::rofl::

According to the NCDC Tennessee has the lowest rate of tornadoes of anywhere in the south, except Virginia.  It actually has fewer tornadoes than everywhere in the US except the Northeastern and Western States, except for Colorado.  This would make sense to those knowledgeable about the nature of tornadoes.

Also as a btw, the same source states that tornado 'trends' in Tennessee are decreasing compared to the previous 30 year climatology window.  Also, winter related costs far outweigh those from severe weather on an annual basis.  It's not even close.

As far as the early week threat goes, there will be some spin ups but the primary threat will likely be straight line winds as the front will quickly become occluded and the source low pressure too far to the north.  It should be a decent rainmaker though!

Sorry to burst your bubble.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 11:18:09 PM by EastTNWX »

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2018, 11:40:30 PM »
Bruce said severe weather not necessarily tornadoes. And though we are no MS or AL we still get our fair share of tornadoes.  https://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

 

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