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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 12582 times)

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Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2018, 10:29:55 PM »
Is this a test sir?   ;)  Crossover winds southeast at surface, southwest at 500mb

A test?  Negative Ghostrider.
(we need a "sarcasm" button)

But for those that may NOT know, that's a good explanation.  Exhibits plenty of wind shear with height.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Montgomery Cos. (@MontCoSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2018, 10:33:41 PM »
Sorry... even I am getting a little nervous about this event.  Would not surprise me if we see a day 3 moderate risk (and it would not surprise me if we don't see it, its 3 days out after all)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2018, 10:54:09 PM »
Is this a test sir?   ;)  Crossover winds southeast at surface, southwest at 500mb
shows turning of the winds at different heights... other words  . Rotating storms ... shear looks directional Also...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2018, 10:59:51 PM »
OMG.

Laughable.



Well someone had to.

Offline Eric

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2018, 11:12:42 PM »
shows turning of the winds at different heights... other words  . Rotating storms ... shear looks directional Also...

Wait...how can directional wind shear cause rotating storms?  Surely I misinterpreted that.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2018, 11:18:22 PM »
Wait...how can directional wind shear cause rotating storms?  Surely I misinterpreted that.
dont... just saying from the overall shear seems  be directional bubba lol

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 02:42:45 AM
New day 3 outlook... one large enhanced area covers all mid south ...

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 02:54:54 AM
That area is also 30 percent hatched... donít think I never seen that on a 3 day outlook....

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 06:04:02 AM
Meg starting get aggressive with their afd... and a lengthy one also....
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 06:04:02 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2018, 06:30:22 AM »
Oh boy. We've already got a large enhanced area 3 days out. Still plenty of time for things to go Mod or dare I say High.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 AM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
   tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   Primary change to previous outlook for Monday has been to expand the
   severe risk areas farther north and east based on latest trends in
   model guidance.

   Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire
   Monday evening and overnight, mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Tennessee Valley regions. Though the NAM and GFS are slightly
   less amplified with approaching upper trough compared to the ECMWF,
   models have demonstrated reasonably good consistency. Cyclogenesis
   should commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in
   response to ascent within exit region of an approaching, intense jet
   streak within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is
   forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley
   overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and
   lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the
   northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector
   in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to
   destabilization with modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells are likely
   to develop along and ahead of advancing cold front Monday afternoon
   initially over the lower MS Valley, and continuing east into the TN
   Valley and Southeast States Monday night. Impressive wind profiles
   with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat
   for mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also
   be possible.

   ..Dial.. 11/03/2018/quote]

(Attachment Link)
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 06:32:32 AM by mamMATTus »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2018, 06:52:15 AM »
Oh boy. We've already got a large enhanced area 3 days out. Still plenty of time for things to go Mod or dare I say High.
I
(Attachment Link)

Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 AM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
   tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   Primary change to previous outlook for Monday has been to expand the
   severe risk areas farther north and east based on latest trends in
   model guidance.

   Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire
   Monday evening and overnight, mainly from the lower MS Valley into
   the Tennessee Valley regions. Though the NAM and GFS are slightly
   less amplified with approaching upper trough compared to the ECMWF,
   models have demonstrated reasonably good consistency. Cyclogenesis
   should commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in
   response to ascent within exit region of an approaching, intense jet
   streak within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is
   forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley
   overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and
   lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the
   northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector
   in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to
   destabilization with modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
   Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells are likely
   to develop along and ahead of advancing cold front Monday afternoon
   initially over the lower MS Valley, and continuing east into the TN
   Valley and Southeast States Monday night. Impressive wind profiles
   with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat
   for mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also
   be possible.

   ..Dial.. 11/03/2018/quote]
yeah.  And itís 30 percent hatched... close to moderate as it can get ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2018, 11:12:22 AM »
And the NAM run takes a crap on the system.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2018, 11:39:18 AM »
And the NAM run takes a crap on the system.
yea... but honest. The nam still in its wacky hour...now shows this 0z. Then it may be on to something

Post Merge: November 03, 2018, 01:04:42 PM
considering we have a 30 percent hatch area for significant severe weasther for our area,,, this has to be the least talked about system i can remember ever on THIS forum... things seem to be on track model wise, exception the blimp the nam threw at us 12z... nothing new there... now if we had a chance of 1 to 2 inches of snow... this board would be going ape $hit... ;)
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 01:04:42 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2018, 01:46:06 PM »
Weather forums as a whole have less viewers than ever and that is part of the problem. Message boards are kind of a dinosaur in this age of social media and Discord servers.

Offline cliftown04

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2018, 02:08:11 PM »
Yes Iíll be curious if the board continues to be slow going into winter. Iíve been here since this board began and have seen many great posters come and go. I have hopes that we will continue to have knowledgeable people give insights. I would have to agree with Bruce that it is frustrating when everyone comes on board for half inch snow but non existent for severe. I worry people are becoming desensitized to severe weather here in mid and west Tennessee.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2018, 02:13:31 PM »
Yes Iíll be curious if the board continues to be slow going into winter. Iíve been here since this board began and have seen many great posters come and go. I have hopes that we will continue to have knowledgeable people give insights. I would have to agree with Bruce that it is frustrating when everyone comes on board for half inch snow but non existent for severe. I worry people are becoming desensitized to severe weather here in mid and west Tennessee.
I wonder if part of the problem is the frequency over the past couple of years of the media going crazy over severe potential, to the point of schools closing early to avoid the predicted storms, and then what hits is some drizzle.  This isn't a criticism of the forecasters or of erring on the side of safety, just that there seems to be so much bust potential for severe outbreaks recently that I think people are overlooking them.  That's dangerous, but also human nature.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2018, 02:52:56 PM »
Euro actually increased the threat IMHO.  Lets see what MEG and other regional weather offices do with their AFD this afternoon.

Offline Curt

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2018, 02:56:53 PM »
Euro actually increased the threat IMHO.  Lets see what MEG and other regional weather offices do with their AFD this afternoon.

Cape def increased Memphis and down into the MS delta.

 

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