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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018  (Read 15829 times)

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Offline Curt

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Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #120 on: November 05, 2018, 05:21:12 PM »
Yes...Do you not? Do you believe youíll get storms with no CAPE?

The atmosphere can destabilize rapidly in the fall. December 14, 1987, temps went from 30ís to 70ís in a few hours with crapvection and the West Memphis tornado formed along the triple point. Never would have guessed that morning it was possible.

Hereís current cape in west TN with crapvection



Hereís the forecast in 4 hours
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 05:24:32 PM by Curt »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #121 on: November 05, 2018, 05:34:15 PM »
Yep. Just because the sun is down doesnít mean instability canít form.
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Online Matthew

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #122 on: November 05, 2018, 05:35:45 PM »
Yes...Do you not? Do you believe youíll get storms with no CAPE?

Yes that is correct but most of the rain is going north of southern middle TN.  I donít see the chances for severe Lessing yet.  Will severe happen who knows but to me itís very early still yet.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #123 on: November 05, 2018, 05:38:32 PM »
We don't need a lot of CAPE to have severe weather and tornadoes.  Just a few hundred is good enough in fall/winter severe weather.  We have had widespread damaging wind events and notable tornadoes in as little as 250 CAPE.   

The CAPE is about on schedule in relation to the HRRR output.  In around 2 hours we should about 500 CAPE from the Memphis area eastward into SW Middle TN with 300 CAPE eventually making it to at least Nashville.   That is enough for a severe event in this environment.   

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #124 on: November 05, 2018, 05:40:20 PM »
Meanwhile, in Hoptown.... ::rain::   ::sleeping::
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #125 on: November 05, 2018, 06:15:54 PM »
All of this waiting is maddening.

Offline WXHD

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #126 on: November 05, 2018, 06:16:38 PM »
I cut down my Bradford Pears a month ago. I have never been as relaxed about a storm as I am now. It, of course, still warrants concern and attention. Butt! I ainít worried about those stupid trees and the damage they could do to my home.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #127 on: November 05, 2018, 06:26:32 PM »
Looks like things are starting to fire up in northern Mississippi.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #128 on: November 05, 2018, 06:44:56 PM »
The atmosphere can destabilize rapidly in the fall. December 14, 1987, temps went from 30ís to 70ís in a few hours with crapvection and the West Memphis tornado formed along the triple point. Never would have guessed that morning it was possible.

Hereís current cape in west TN with crapvection



Hereís the forecast in 4 hours

i remember that nite real well
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clay

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #129 on: November 05, 2018, 06:46:25 PM »
Lower level moisture advection really picking along the I-65 corridor the past hour. 61F Td at BNA as of 6:35PM, up 5F in less than 2 hours. A whopping 66F at Columbia.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #130 on: November 05, 2018, 07:00:08 PM »
Whatís the earliest we can expect a watch to go out, and is it more likely to be TOR or SVR? Have not see a Meso yet for Middle TN.

Offline Beth

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #131 on: November 05, 2018, 07:05:25 PM »
Just went out!

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #132 on: November 05, 2018, 07:05:56 PM »
Tornado Watch #423 issued

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD              BENTON              CANNON
CARROLL              CHEATHAM            CHESTER
COFFEE               CROCKETT            DAVIDSON
DECATUR              DICKSON             FAYETTE
GIBSON               GILES               HARDEMAN
HARDIN               HAYWOOD             HENDERSON
HENRY                HICKMAN             HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS            LAWRENCE            LEWIS
MACON                MADISON             MARSHALL
MAURY                MCNAIRY             MONTGOMERY
PERRY                ROBERTSON           RUTHERFORD
SHELBY               SMITH               STEWART
SUMNER               TIPTON              TROUSDALE
WAYNE                WEAKLEY             WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...OHX...MEG...
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Offline Curt

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #133 on: November 05, 2018, 07:26:22 PM »
DP at Memphis just about to 70. That was a quick increase.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Nov 5-6, 2018
« Reply #134 on: November 05, 2018, 07:29:38 PM »
DP at Memphis just about to 70. That was a quick increase.
yeah, now were finally getting somewhere ... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

 

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