July 20th 2018 Severe Weather Possibilities

[Thundersnow]

This may not be done yet...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1113.html

Weird way to watch things fire with a southwest moving outflow boundary- still not confident it will make it all the way to my area.


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[WXRocker]

It's a bit odd for me to look out and see the flashes from lightning over in Bowling Green but I live in Hopkinsville where NOTHING at all is happening.   

I hope for everyone else's safety in the thick of it all.  But here - we were done before we got started.

 

[JayCee]

Rounds of heavy storms overnight gave my backyard its heaviest rainfall so far this summer with 1.85" falling by morning.  It was needed.  Before last night's rain, I had only accumulated 1.79" in what is normally one of the wettest months of the year.

Gusty winds and temps in the lower 60's makes it feel more like a September morning.  I'm able to open the windows for the first time in weeks and bring the outdoors back in.

[JHart]

We picked up exactly one-half inch out here from some dying convection between 2:30 AM and 3:00 AM, but locations just west and south of us received almost nothing.  West and Middle Tennessee were certainly toxic to storms last night.  That's amazing to me, given the ingredients present.

[JayCee]

We picked up exactly one-half inch out here from some dying convection between 2:30 AM and 3:00 AM, but locations just west and south of us received almost nothing.  West and Middle Tennessee were certainly toxic to storms last night.  That's amazing to me, given the ingredients present.

The sharp demarcation between storms and nothing is impressive.

[BRUCE]

Overall.  The cap was just to strong. To erode overall ... the atmosphere was pretty much a loaded gun...

[JHart]

I spent most of yesterday afternoon taking down hanging pots, hummingbird feeders, and whirlygigs.  As I was finishing up and sweating profusely, my better half ---who lives in a weather coma--- came outside and gave me "the look."

"It is not going to storm.  It just doesn't feel like it."

I guess it is not a weather coma after all.

[Thundersnow]

The sharp demarcation between storms and nothing is impressive.

On that map, I’m right on the edge of nothing.

Looks like another good shot of rain tomorrow. If that doesn’t work out, looks like I’m going to have to water the ole fescue.


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[JayCee]

I spent most of yesterday afternoon taking down hanging pots, hummingbird feeders, and whirlygigs.  As I was finishing up and sweating profusely, my better half ---who lives in a weather coma--- came outside and gave me "the look."

"It is not going to storm.  It just doesn't feel like it."

I guess it is not a weather coma after all.

Funny!  Human intuition and instinct FTW!  Maybe we should check with your better half come winter! 
Post Merge: July 21, 2018, 11:49:51 AM

On that map, I’m right on the edge of nothing.

Looks like another good shot of rain tomorrow. If that doesn’t work out, looks like I’m going to have to water the ole fescue.


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Here's hoping you see some liquid sunshine.   

After a cloudless, beautiful blue sky this morning, clouds have rapidly redeveloped out of nowhere and nearly cover the sky now IMBY.  I don't think I've ever seen the sky cloud over that quickly before. 

[Lucas]

It's fascinating to me how the area on the map with no reports yesterday almost perfectly matches the shape of the mod and much of the enhanced risk yesterday.

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[Thundersnow]

There’s a nice westerly wind that’s cutting the humidity late this afternoon. Feels nice. Forecast lows in the upper 60s.


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[Tom Hensley]

Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough coming up.We could get some strong isolated storms depending on where any short waves rotate,least the Euro shows this right now.GFS not so much.But another front either way is being shown around next weekend.The MJO looks to be getting into the Gulf of Mexico even though Euro and GEFS shows otherwise.The Euro can get extremly biased into phase 6 killing it off to quickly.Asia the next several days has tropical systems,typhoons upcoming,the long range models will have a hard time.Longer range could get interesting if the MJO is right other than the GFS  and Euro.If the MJO gets into the GOM there in this time into the first week of August a Kelvin Wave is being shown into the Gulf of Mexico so you'd have some potential tropical genesis,we'll see

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[JayCee]

There were reports of cold air funnels around the east TN area over the weekend.  Not much rain IMBY after nearly 2 inches fell Friday night, but plenty of thunder around.  Caught a building storm nicely lit by the sunset Saturday night.