* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 268986 times)

0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,364
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2212
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3555 on: February 15, 2019, 11:51:55 AM »
Good luck!  I know it's not much, but anything is better than nothing in a winter like this.

Even the RAP is giving those of us on the TN/KY line some love tonight.

I honestly expect Bowling Green to get 2”+ out of this, which makes me angry. Haha
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,086
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1473
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3556 on: February 15, 2019, 12:00:45 PM »
6Z GFS apparently was a hiccup. 12Z is back to a 8-12” event for most of TN east of 65 and south of 40, with a bit less closer to Nashville. 7” line is down to the I-20 corridor. That’s a lot of water over a big area.

I just read this post back to myself and imagined I was talking about snowfall.

Wouldn't that be nice if it was snow, instead of what's coming?

Tuesday night into Wednesday looks to be the worst.  GFS shows a prolonged period of very heavy rain from Alabama right up into middle and east TN.  24hr rain amounts look off the charts--4-6" just in that time frame.  I'd say flash flood and flood warnings will be widespread that day. 

This is getting worrisome to put it mildly.  Before we can even dry out from one heavy rain event, another follows on it's heels.  Breaking it down by 24 hour periods, there are 5 separate moderate to heavy rain events between now and the 25th with little or no dry time in between. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3557 on: February 15, 2019, 12:01:45 PM »
Even the RAP is giving those of us on the TN/KY line some love tonight.

I honestly expect Bowling Green to get 2”+ out of this, which makes me angry. Haha

I'm on team WRF-ARW/WRF-NNM  ;D...even though the odds of this occurring are 0.001%.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,133
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1700
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3558 on: February 15, 2019, 12:16:17 PM »
Flooding going be the main show weather wise for a while appears ...  ::drowning::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,226
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1740
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3559 on: February 15, 2019, 12:54:48 PM »
Even the RAP is giving those of us on the TN/KY line some love tonight.

I honestly expect Bowling Green to get 2”+ out of this, which makes me angry. Haha
Let's pull off a minor miracle tonight. If we get the ground covered it's a win. At least it will be something to monitor tonight, might be our last chance you never know.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,133
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1700
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3560 on: February 15, 2019, 01:01:30 PM »
Let's pull off a minor miracle tonight. If we get the ground covered it's a win. At least it will be something to monitor tonight, might be our last chance you never know.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
anyone seeing flake snow in the state from this... will be a miracle itself...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,226
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1740
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3561 on: February 15, 2019, 01:17:53 PM »
anyone seeing flake snow in the state from this... will be a miracle itself...
Yes I think if frozen it will be freezing or sleet mostly. Still could be some slick areas along the border, nobody is thinking a major event. But it bears watching tonight for us in potential area. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Post Merge: February 15, 2019, 01:19:57 PM
I'm on team WRF-ARW/WRF-NNM  ;D...even though the odds of this occurring are 0.001%.
Shoot yeah, I am all in. If it doesn't happen I will laugh and still get up in the morning.  ::guitar:: ::rofl:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 01:19:57 PM by Clarksville Snowman, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,293
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 129
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3562 on: February 15, 2019, 01:21:26 PM »
Big changes for the 12Z Euro. Thankfully, rainfall is more in the 4-6" range for east TN through Fri. The final wave that was pushing much of this area into the 10-12" range focuses on the I-40 corridor in West TN from Memphis to Nashville, with 6-8" there. Brings totals across the state to 6-8" SE TN, 6-8" along I-40, and less than 6" everywhere else. It is still a ton of rain, but it's a marginal improvement for eastern TN from 00Z.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,086
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1473
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3563 on: February 15, 2019, 01:52:47 PM »
Big changes for the 12Z Euro. Thankfully, rainfall is more in the 4-6" range for east TN through Fri. The final wave that was pushing much of this area into the 10-12" range focuses on the I-40 corridor in West TN from Memphis to Nashville, with 6-8" there. Brings totals across the state to 6-8" SE TN, 6-8" along I-40, and less than 6" everywhere else. It is still a ton of rain, but it's a marginal improvement for eastern TN from 00Z.

Yep, GFS concentrates the heaviest amounts in the middle and east, while Euro spreads the misery statewide.  This is through the 25th. 



My heart wishes this was snow. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 313
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3564 on: February 15, 2019, 02:06:39 PM »
Yep, GFS concentrates the heaviest amounts in the middle and east, while Euro spreads the misery statewide.  This is through the 25th. 



My heart wishes this was snow.

even if we got just 10 percent of that amount of moisture with cold air in place...would be 6-8 + inches of snow widespread....we rarely ever see plentiful moisture with cold air any more:(

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,133
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1700
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3565 on: February 15, 2019, 02:12:55 PM »
Yep, GFS concentrates the heaviest amounts in the middle and east, while Euro spreads the misery statewide.  This is through the 25th. 



My heart wishes this was snow.
euro been very consistent with this too... not good
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,226
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1740
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3566 on: February 15, 2019, 02:18:32 PM »
NW middle tn now put in weather advisory.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,133
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1700
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3567 on: February 15, 2019, 02:28:12 PM »
on the 12z euro... the southeast ridge is just relentless on the whole run....

Post Merge: February 15, 2019, 02:29:58 PM
on the 12z euro... the southeast ridge is just relentless on the whole run....
pretty much sw flow... plenty of rain chances coming up.... ::drowning::
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 02:29:58 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,086
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1473
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3568 on: February 15, 2019, 02:39:47 PM »
Per MRX:

Quote
Tuesday through Thursday will be the greatest period of concern. The
longwave trough out west further amplifies during this time with a
sharpening of the eastern U.S. ridge. This will place our area in
the right entrance region of a divergent 130-145 kt southwesterly
300 mb jet for a prolonged period. The result of this strong upper
level lift will be low to mid level WAA and moisture flux quickly
returning Monday night and Tuesday with the strongest 850 mb low
level jet and associated warm/moist advection coming Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This will occur as strong frontogenetic forcing also
moves into the area Wednesday from a slowly advancing, nearly
stationary, cold front. PWAT values during this period will likely
be 1-1.4 inches further increasing the heavy rain threat. Have
chance to likely pops expanding from south to north Monday night
followed by likely to categorical Tuesday through Wednesday evening.
As an early estimate, storm total QPF from 00Z Tuesday trough 12Z
Thursday looks to be 1.5-4 inches from southwest VA through the
northern valley and 3 to 6 inches from the plateau through the
central and southern valley. Given the persistently wet pattern
and saturated soil that we have seen most of this month, we will
continue to highlight a significant flooding potential in the HWO.


"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,258
  • Location: Rural Williamson County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3569 on: February 15, 2019, 03:39:48 PM »
It's pouring snow in Cape Girardeau at the moment. It looks like areas along that line of latitude will do quite well in this little system. Some of the returns might be amplified by sleet.

 

* Recent Posts

Fall 2019
by Matthew
[Today at 12:41:12 PM]
Summer 2019 Thread - To sweat or not to sweat, that is the question.
by Greyhound
[September 20, 2019, 02:39:07 PM]
North Atlantic Tropical Season 2019 Thread
by cgauxknox
[September 19, 2019, 04:48:37 AM]
Most Frequent Cause of Weather Fatalities
by StormNine
[September 18, 2019, 05:28:24 PM]
Hurricane Dorian
by snowdog
[September 12, 2019, 04:36:24 PM]

Advertisement