Winter 2018-19

[JHart]

yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,,

Christmas in July just ended on QVC.  We got plenty of candy, nuts, and Christmas out here.

[Curt]

Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:


October

November

December

January

Feb

[snowdog]

Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

[JayCee]

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

He'll have a field day with those, for sure. 

[Curt]

Here is what Weatherbell's Pioneer Model says:


Here is Bastardi's personal maps:



His Analogs:

[JayCee]

5F below normal for the winter months?  Wow.  That's pretty extreme.  And above normal snowfall centered right over the southeast U.S.  It's nice to dream about such things, anyway . . .

[snowdog]

Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual? 
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs. 
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend. 

[JayCee]

Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

[Curt]

Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual? 

Answer: Tallahassee get 1.67 flakes instead of 1

b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs. 

Even though the Nashville snow dome has collapsed, Mundie will bring “new” luck to B’ham which had a record 8 year snow drought not that long ago.


c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend. 

I-44 FTW

[StormNine]

Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

I wonder if that was why a lot of 2006-07 (that is one of his analogs) didn't go as planned with the exception of that 3 week period at the end of January into February.  His other analogs worked like a charm for most if not all of us.   

[Crockett]

All I know is the signs are pointing towards a SSW event that will unleash the polar vortex into the Lower 48...

[cgauxknox]

Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread? 

[Crockett]

Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread? 

Let's just not start a drinking game for every time it makes it into the thread or we'll all be soused.

[StormNine]

Bingo is a safe alternative for those that want to play a game and keep their liver healthy. 

[BRUCE]

i know one thing... if i were located in the boston ... nyc... to dc area even perhaps to atlanta... i be getting very excited this winter... for what i gathering  and seeing... trough should set up pretty far to the east of us during winter months for the most... we will be mostly dealing with a nw flow pattern for the most of us mid southerners... which we may have to be pulling for a decent clipper type system to score for most us... ... time will tell... what i see thus far ....