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Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a highly negative ENSO or strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now. 4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were. Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
Born in 97? You a youngin' alright. You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96. At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time. I'm not sure how TN fared those two years. I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters. After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03. Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent. There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY.
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
I promised you guys a little winter talk, so lets do this. I’ve already shared some early thoughts over the past month or two… I like the way the El Niño is forecast to setup. The placement in the central Nino region and the weak look to it, both argue for a winter trough across our region. That would be good news to cold and snow lovers.
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.http://kyweathercenter.com/While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns. Here's a quote from the current post. . .He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter. At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter.
