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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 219011 times)

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Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3600 on: February 17, 2019, 12:31:38 AM »
September 2018 - March 2019 will be the wettest seven month period of September-March since 1950 (when records-keeping began here) on the northern plateau.

Think about that, we still have half of February to go, let alone March, and it's already guaranteed to be the wettest on record, even with 6 weeks left...and that's before we get the 6-8 inches of rain that are in the forecast for this week.

It's just incredible.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3601 on: February 17, 2019, 04:54:10 AM »
37 degrees and thunder woke me up. Thunderstorm at 37 degrees ? Crazy weather.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 04:57:25 AM by Dyersburg Weather »

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3602 on: February 17, 2019, 10:08:49 AM »
37 degrees and thunder woke me up. Thunderstorm at 37 degrees ? Crazy weather.

Good ole elevated convection.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3603 on: February 17, 2019, 11:00:19 AM »
its about time to start a spring thread...I may start it... if not started in the next couple days... winter thread gets started months before winter even starts... February over half over... first couple weeks at most may be cooler than march standards... but as we approach end march into april... mjo turns back warmer phases... hopefully we can enjoy bit of true spring with severe threat.... looking forward to it regardless... ;D
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3604 on: February 17, 2019, 11:25:14 AM »
its about time to start a spring thread...I may start it... if not started in the next couple days... winter thread gets started months before winter even starts... February over half over... first couple weeks at most may be cooler than march standards... but as we approach end march into april... mjo turns back warmer phases... hopefully we can enjoy bit of true spring with severe threat.... looking forward to it regardless... ;D

Now that we know that El-Nino is here to stay we do now know that we will be dealing with that subtropical jet.  I just hope that for an extended period of time in March that someone else deals with it so we have time to dry off.  Severe weather forecasters will really need to watch for Gulf of Mexico Convection messing with moisture return this spring as well due to that subtropical jet.

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3605 on: February 17, 2019, 01:52:35 PM »
Well well well...
Finally starting to take shape. Winter might not be finished after all.



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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3606 on: February 17, 2019, 01:55:12 PM »
todays 12z euro has a severe weather threat next weekend for the midsouth... this is the system that changes the pattern to a cooler type heading into early march... see if it holds during the week
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3607 on: February 17, 2019, 02:26:47 PM »
todays 12z euro has a severe weather threat next weekend for the midsouth... this is the system that changes the pattern to a cooler type heading into early march... see if it holds during the week

Thankfully, the cooler pattern is also drier.  12Z GFS says the period between 2/25 and 3/5 should be nearly precipitation free.  I'm sure that will change, but with the flow more northwest verses southwest, whatever falls will be much lighter than what we are dealing with this week.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3608 on: February 17, 2019, 03:44:43 PM »
Thankfully, the cooler pattern is also drier.  12Z GFS says the period between 2/25 and 3/5 should be nearly precipitation free.  I'm sure that will change, but with the flow more northwest verses southwest, whatever falls will be much lighter than what we are dealing with this week.

Well of course. Ifís itís cold enough for wintry precipitation, it will be dry for sure lol


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3609 on: February 17, 2019, 04:02:23 PM »
Well of course. Ifís itís cold enough for wintry precipitation, it will be dry for sure lol


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exactly lol

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3610 on: February 17, 2019, 04:38:02 PM »
The next round of rain has moved in.  Coming down at a moderate rate now.  Looks like 1-1.5" expected overnight, and most of that will be runoff.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3611 on: February 18, 2019, 05:40:20 AM »
MEG. Seems concerned bout the severe wx potential Saturday... saying shear and instability look high...

Post Merge: February 18, 2019, 05:44:23 AM
MEG. Seems concerned bout the severe wx potential Saturday... saying shear and instability look high...
SPC. Already highlighting  area across midsouth Saturday in the 4 to 8 day outlook...
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 05:44:23 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3612 on: February 18, 2019, 08:01:53 AM »
After next weekendís strong storm potential, getting model consensus on potential record cold for early March.



Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3613 on: February 18, 2019, 08:10:49 AM »
After next weekendís strong storm potential, getting model consensus on potential record cold for early March.



could be winters last gasp.... sure if it gets colder it be extreme dry ... so what good
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 08:12:46 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3614 on: February 18, 2019, 08:18:05 AM »
6Z GFS shows a brief, but intense shot of cold around 3/2.  For the moment it appears to be progressive, as heights build quickly again afterwards.   But that's just the GFS. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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