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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 268980 times)

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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3585 on: February 15, 2019, 10:58:59 PM »
Parts of Montgomery co reporting freezing rain. I am still at 33 and rain at the moment.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3586 on: February 15, 2019, 11:14:49 PM »
00Z GFS has increased precip again for the eastern 2/3rds of the state. Large area of 12”+ all along the southern plateau stretching towards Knoxville. Looks like the max was in southern middle TN, and it was over 15”.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3587 on: February 16, 2019, 09:44:54 AM »
We got around 2/10ths of an inch of ice last night but it is quickly melting off right now.   

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3588 on: February 16, 2019, 11:44:11 AM »
With the massive SOI crash, EPS finally caves at the end of the month with a major cold push. Probably have a week or so to salvage anything from the 28th to the 10th. That SOI is basically forcing the pattern to what is typical pattern along with a cold forced MJO pattern. Bet we have a below normal March and April until the MJO makes the final turn to warm.

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3589 on: February 16, 2019, 01:42:36 PM »
The 12z GFS paints 11" of rain over the next 15 days with major flooding rains for Feb. 27-28. This is getting really, really old.

11" of QPF- wow, now we just to to work on the temperatures in all levels of the atmosphere.

Post Merge: February 16, 2019, 01:46:29 PM
WHOA!!! 18z GFS 8 Day Rainfall Potentials




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just think- that could be 130" or so at about 30 degrees.  That needs to happen sometime.  Best way I can think of is to get a big overrunning setup that holds for several days. 

Post Merge: February 16, 2019, 01:52:31 PM
Bet we have a below normal March and April until the MJO makes the final turn to warm.

Sign me up if we can go below normal through the end of the year.  In fact, if we could just always be below normal, yeh, that'd be nice.  I would very much like a 10 degree drop on temps year-round. 
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 01:52:31 PM by mempho, Reason: Merged DoublePost »


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3590 on: February 16, 2019, 02:10:03 PM »
11" of QPF- wow, now we just to to work on the temperatures in all levels of the atmosphere.

Post Merge: February 16, 2019, 01:46:29 PM
Just think- that could be 130" or so at about 30 degrees.  That needs to happen sometime.  Best way I can think of is to get a big overrunning setup that holds for several days. 

Post Merge: February 16, 2019, 01:52:31 PM
Sign me up if we can go below normal through the end of the year.  In fact, if we could just always be below normal, yeh, that'd be nice.  I would very much like a 10 degree drop on temps year-round.

Looks like we stay at a moderate El Niño through next winter now. That generally bodes well for a cooler than normal summer. For my outdoor runs and hopeful marathon training this year... I like.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3591 on: February 16, 2019, 02:18:40 PM »
Looks like we stay at a moderate El Niño through next winter now. That generally bodes well for a cooler than normal summer. For my outdoor runs and hopeful marathon training this year... I like.
o lord. Another pathetic winter I coming ... summer will be a hot humid just like all midsouth summers are... makes better running weather besides ... helps with stamina
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3592 on: February 16, 2019, 03:18:37 PM »
Keeping the El-Nino through the spring and summer does increase the idea of a cool and damp spring.  It also increases the odds of a potentially stronger El-Nino (think 86-87 to 87-88 or on the extreme end 2014-15 to 2015-16).   A stronger El-Nino increases the odds of more of an El-Nino pattern setting up versus our current pattern of inserting a subtropical jet into a Nina like pattern.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3593 on: February 16, 2019, 04:11:33 PM »
o lord. Another pathetic winter I coming ... summer will be a hot humid just like all midsouth summers are... makes better running weather besides ... helps with stamina

The heck did I just read  ::rofl::

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3594 on: February 16, 2019, 04:21:17 PM »
Keeping the El-Nino through the spring and summer does increase the idea of a cool and damp spring.  It also increases the odds of a potentially stronger El-Nino (think 86-87 to 87-88 or on the extreme end 2014-15 to 2015-16).   A stronger El-Nino increases the odds of more of an El-Nino pattern setting up versus our current pattern of inserting a subtropical jet into a Nina like pattern.

Yep. Been reading Joe D’Aleo in this week who basically said the the weak El Niño hasn’t been strong enough factor to override the the tropics until now with the massive SOI drop. Usually even a weak one does have more influence than what we’ve seen this winter.

One can’t find too many back to back El Niño episodes since 1950. The only ones that look relative to where we are now are 77-78 and 87-88. The strong super El Niño of 2015-16 was a second Nino, but the likelihood based off past records this soon is slim to none. Those are usually about 20 years apart so it should be quite some time.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3595 on: February 16, 2019, 04:24:10 PM »
o lord. Another pathetic winter I coming ... summer will be a hot humid just like all midsouth summers are... makes better running weather besides ... helps with stamina

Probably need to prepare yourself for a quieter than normal severe season too. Hurricane season historically is quiet during nino episodes too. Summer is hot here for sure, but there’s huge differences running in blistering heat vs normal heat. It does not produce stamina IMO for me at all.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3596 on: February 16, 2019, 04:53:18 PM »
Probably need to prepare yourself for a quieter than normal severe season too. Hurricane season historically is quiet during nino episodes too. Summer is hot here for sure, but there’s huge differences running in blistering heat vs normal heat. It does not produce stamina IMO for me at all.
im used to running heat humidity ... never affect me... to me if you can run in that heat humid weather u can run almost any climate ... so to me it helps build your stamina... severe should get cranked up early enough vs last year ... don’t discount a strong nino for next winter ...
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 06:17:39 PM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3597 on: February 16, 2019, 05:13:20 PM »
El Nino and La Nina aside, soil conditions also play a big part in how spring and summer progresses.  We're going into spring with saturated soil.  So, I would think spring and early summer will be cool at best.  Mid to late summer may grow hot like last year, and that heat may last into October similar to last year.  Either way, this winter has taught me that we have a long way to go in knowing how to predict seasonal weather.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 05:14:51 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3598 on: February 16, 2019, 05:31:43 PM »
im used to running heat humidity ... never effective me... to me if you can run in that heat humid weather u can run almost any climate ... so to me it helps build your stamina... severe should get cranked up early enough vs last year ... don’t discount a strong nino for next winter ...

Prepositions are overrated.

Never effective me neither.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 05:33:42 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3599 on: February 16, 2019, 07:56:00 PM »
As is my normal stance, I will take a dud winter if it leads to a cooler summer with lots of rain.  My least favorite weather is those week long stretches 98-99 degrees with a Heat index pushing >110 degrees with nothing but blistering clear to partly cloudy skies.  Last summer here was not terrible and I would be ok with a repeat.

That said, I will take an early March blizzard too.  We have had some pretty good snows over this way in March so all hope is not quite lost yet.

Post Merge: February 16, 2019, 07:58:48 PM
With the massive SOI crash, EPS finally caves at the end of the month with a major cold push. Probably have a week or so to salvage anything from the 28th to the 10th. That SOI is basically forcing the pattern to what is typical pattern along with a cold forced MJO pattern. Bet we have a below normal March and April until the MJO makes the final turn to warm.

Thing could be worse, we at least have a window to get a significant winter event.  It only takes one good storm in the south to make a winter good.  ::fingerscrossed::
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 07:58:48 PM by bugalou, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

 

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