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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 218987 times)

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3540 on: February 15, 2019, 05:45:25 AM »
GFS trended the wrong way last night. Now showing double digit rainfall inside 7 days, over 16Ē through truncation. Worst flood in decades if itís right.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline cliftown04

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3541 on: February 15, 2019, 06:19:23 AM »
For us along the Tennessee River it will be very interesting to see how this works out. Also interested to see if that swath of heaviest precipitation moves north a tad and sets up in middle Tennessee? 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3542 on: February 15, 2019, 06:47:34 AM »
Did anyone else notice the new color on the map from MRX this morning?  There is just a tiny bit on the very south of the map showing in the 10-15" range.  As I've said before on this topic I don't think the general public understands or respects what we're looking at in the near- and long-term for flooding in East TN and throughout the Tennessee and Mississippi rivers.

(For some reason I can't post images any more - keep getting an error that the upload folder is full.  Is this a profile issue for me?  I can't find where to delete old images and clear out space.)

I was having the same issue, along with Charles L, I believe.  It seemed to have cleared itself up for me for the time being.  I think it's a problem with "tinypic."  Not sure, though.

Post Merge: February 15, 2019, 07:05:52 AM
Per MRX:
 
Quote
Some good news is
that with such a healthy southerly component to the mean flow,
temperatures are expected to be relatively mild with almost all
the precipitation being liquid.

Sorry, MRX, I don't think that's good news at this point. 
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 07:05:52 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3543 on: February 15, 2019, 07:06:56 AM »
The euro:

This is the end of the run and it is still raining heavily.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3544 on: February 15, 2019, 07:17:47 AM »
It's obvious river flooding will become severe over the coming weeks and probably well into March, but the mountainous terrain of the plateau, east TN, and adjacent parts of the Carolinas and Georgia will probably see widespread & dangerous flash flooding, mud and rock slides, and serious issues with roads being damaged and washed away.  I wouldn't be surprised to see I-40 near the TN/NC border closed due to rock slides.  It seems to always happen when too much rain falls, and what's coming is potentially record breaking.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3545 on: February 15, 2019, 07:23:37 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised to see I-40 near the TN/NC border closed due to rock slides.  It seems to always happen when too much rain falls, and what's coming is potentially record breaking.
I've been thinking the same thing.  It's been a few years since we had a major slide in that area (was the last major one around 2011?) and it seems to be the weak point of the interstate system regionally.  I'm also concerned about many of these new subdivisions they've built around Knoxville that are on ground that was vacant for good reason; they're piling quarter million dollar and up homes in deep valleys that I don't believe can drain the kind of rain we're going to get.  We're in an old neighborhood high on a hill, but I worry about others in the area that aren't so lucky.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3546 on: February 15, 2019, 07:28:39 AM »
We have already had 5 minor slides on hwy 64 in Polk Co this winter. The last major one was in 2014. TDOT is currently in the process of performing a lot of survey work along the river gorge to determine how much the slopes are moving over time. The hope is that the information will help make a case for funding a bypass tunnel, but thatís frankly a pipe dream. It would cost billions.

Post Merge: February 15, 2019, 08:41:05 AM
The 6Z GFS halved the rain for here. At first glance itís good news, but I think it might be a feedback issue. It still has very heavy rains to the north and south with a very narrow area of lighter amounts in the eastern valley. Downsloping shouldnít be a huge issue with this orientation, so Iím not sure why it cut totals. The field of precip is also still roughly the same size and shape as the Euro. We will see if it holds for the 12Z.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 08:41:42 AM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Ultra mag 1971

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3547 on: February 15, 2019, 09:23:51 AM »
DYER CO SHERIFF: Winter Weather Advisory until 03:00AM Saturday nixle.us/ARHBG Reply with a friend's # to forward

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3548 on: February 15, 2019, 09:40:25 AM »
Current HRRR has a significant swath of snow hugging the KY/TN border.  Some decent amounts showing up in the Bowling Green area.  Areas in TN near there may get a good surprise. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3549 on: February 15, 2019, 09:46:22 AM »
GFS trended the wrong way last night. Now showing double digit rainfall inside 7 days, over 16Ē through truncation. Worst flood in decades if itís right.

only possible bright side is at least it is over a 6-7 day time frame...unlike 2010 floods when it was 10-15 inches in 36 hours

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3550 on: February 15, 2019, 09:51:15 AM »
only possible bright side is at least it is over a 6-7 day time frame...unlike 2010 floods when it was 10-15 inches in 36 hours
2010 floods were a non event in east TN. We havenít had major floods since Fall 2009. Before that it wouldíve been May 2003.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3551 on: February 15, 2019, 09:52:20 AM »
It seems to be more of a trend than an outlier.

I'm just sayin' based on the %'s we were overdue for a weak El Nino Modoki not working out since TN as a whole has done decent with this signal established (key word) even per recent climo. As for weak winters in general, I agree...totally a trend.

Side note: NWS going with a SWS in NW Middle TN for the potential for wintry mix. Per HRRR/RGEM, the counties involved may have a small, multi-hour window of sleet/freezing rain...but nothing major. I'll be just north of the KY border tonight to investigate any surprises.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 11:33:50 AM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3552 on: February 15, 2019, 11:16:16 AM »
Current HRRR has a significant swath of snow hugging the KY/TN border.  Some decent amounts showing up in the Bowling Green area.  Areas in TN near there may get a good surprise.

Yep, I am getting more intrigued the closer we get. Latest HRRR gives me a 3-4 hour window of freezing rain/sleet followed by some snow.

I donít except much, but a nice glaze and maybe a dusting wouldnít be bad at all!

Post Merge: February 15, 2019, 11:17:25 AM

Side note: NWS going with a SWS in NW Middle TN for the potential for wintry mix. Per HRRR/RGEM, the counties involved may have a small, multi-hour window of sleet/freezing rain...but nothing major. I'll be just north of the KY border tonight to investigate any surprises.

I could see that NW corner being upgraded to a WWA, much like MEG did this morning with their northern tiered counties.
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3553 on: February 15, 2019, 11:21:15 AM »
6Z GFS apparently was a hiccup. 12Z is back to a 8-12Ē event for most of TN east of 65 and south of 40, with a bit less closer to Nashville. 7Ē line is down to the I-20 corridor. Thatís a lot of water over a big area.

I just read this post back to myself and imagined I was talking about snowfall.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 11:24:42 AM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3554 on: February 15, 2019, 11:45:43 AM »
Yep, I am getting more intrigued the closer we get. Latest HRRR gives me a 3-4 hour window of freezing rain/sleet followed by some snow.

I donít except much, but a nice glaze and maybe a dusting wouldnít be bad at all!


Good luck!  I know it's not much, but anything is better than nothing in a winter like this. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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