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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 253353 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3435 on: February 12, 2019, 12:47:33 PM »
Walked a trail near work before the rain moved in today, and noticed the 80 degree temps last week already caused the Bradford buds to burst open.  The flower and leaf buds are still closed, but the outer buds are all opening.  I've seen that many times in February before, but never quite this early in the month. 
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Offline Curt

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Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3436 on: February 12, 2019, 03:05:06 PM »
Tale of 2 stories...

1. GEFS which gets the MJO stuck in decently cold phase 8...has a nice push of arctic air southeastward and winter precip post day 7.

2. EPS- starts to push cold air (MJO phases 8-1 which are usually great for central and east for cold) only to have the SER come in and screw up a storm that actually goes well South of us. Almost makes no sense but itís persistent.

All of this amidst a massive drop in SOI which doesnít favor a SER. Truth is probably in the middle.


Long range still looks cool for this time of year. Most likely going to be a slow start to severe.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3437 on: February 12, 2019, 03:21:58 PM »
With all the new little lakes popping up around here in low lying areas, Tennessee will soon give Minnesota a run for it's money.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3438 on: February 12, 2019, 03:28:03 PM »
The rain has picked up as has the wind in the last little bit here in Knoxville.  With ground this saturated I wonder if the wind will start bringing trees down and causing power outages.  The lights have been flickering for the last few minutes here, although we fortunately haven't lost power yet.  This remains a very odd weather day for mid-February.

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3439 on: February 12, 2019, 03:49:56 PM »
I mean- the 12z GFS still has 2.81" of QPF next week all coming down in sub-40 temps (at KMEM).  I'm sense both some opportunity and something to possibly fear.

Bad news first, the biggest chunk of the QPF comes down with +8C 850 temps but with a surface temp of 37.   Given the propensity of the GFS to understate low-level cold air at this time frame, there is significant reason to be concerned since we have so many consecutive runs with a lot of QPF in cold temps.  I should note- I have NOT looked at 925 temps for this.

Now, for the opportunity side, obviously it might only take a bit better positioning/orientation/strength of the high pressure to make this one of the great overrunning snow events of all time.  It's obviously unlikely but it's on the table


Put on my big snow boots and
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Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3440 on: February 12, 2019, 03:55:14 PM »
The rain has picked up as has the wind in the last little bit here in Knoxville.  With ground this saturated I wonder if the wind will start bringing trees down and causing power outages.  The lights have been flickering for the last few minutes here, although we fortunately haven't lost power yet.  This remains a very odd weather day for mid-February.

We've been very lucky the forecasted gusts to 30mph haven't occurred.  If the wind starts picking up, trees with shallow roots will have a hard time staying upright.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Eric

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3441 on: February 12, 2019, 04:14:47 PM »
I mean- the 12z GFS still has 2.81" of QPF next week all coming down in sub-40 temps (at KMEM).  I'm sense both some opportunity and something to possibly fear.

Bad news first, the biggest chunk of the QPF comes down with +8C 850 temps but with a surface temp of 37.   Given the propensity of the GFS to understate low-level cold air at this time frame, there is significant reason to be concerned since we have so many consecutive runs with a lot of QPF in cold temps.  I should note- I have NOT looked at 925 temps for this.

Now, for the opportunity side, obviously it might only take a bit better positioning/orientation/strength of the high pressure to make this one of the great overrunning snow events of all time.  It's obviously unlikely but it's on the table.

12z GFS 2m temps are 40-41. 
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Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3442 on: February 12, 2019, 04:46:05 PM »
12z GFS 2m temps are 40-41.
The max temp was 40, I thought... please give me a single degree of leeway!

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Online BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3443 on: February 12, 2019, 04:49:29 PM »
Tale of 2 stories...

1. GEFS which gets the MJO stuck in decently cold phase 8...has a nice push of arctic air southeastward and winter precip post day 7.

2. EPS- starts to push cold air (MJO phases 8-1 which are usually great for central and east for cold) only to have the SER come in and screw up a storm that actually goes well South of us. Almost makes no sense but itís persistent.

All of this amidst a massive drop in SOI which doesnít favor a SER. Truth is probably in the middle.


Long range still looks cool for this time of year. Most likely going to be a slow start to severe.
long range models been way off this year...think severe wont be far off, which should make most of us happy... everyone looking for some active weather... boring weather just blows
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3444 on: February 12, 2019, 05:09:00 PM »
12z GFS 2m temps are 40-41.
Tops out at 37 here. Nice shot of snow on the backside on the 12z . Nice shot on the front end on the 18z. Whatever happens looks like a lot of moisture involved. Thatís a massive storm on the 12z .

Offline WXHD

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3445 on: February 12, 2019, 06:26:40 PM »
My maples are budding out. Redbuds are already blooming on old Hickory. This could be a frigid repeat of last year.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3446 on: February 12, 2019, 06:36:21 PM »
We are approaching the halfway mark in February and Great Falls, MT currently has a -26F departure from average for February.   

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3447 on: February 12, 2019, 06:40:40 PM »
God the qpf on the GFS is ridiculous. Hopefully that moderates a bit as it gets closer. It feels like this wet spell has been going on since the middle of October. Clearly showing no signs of letting up. TVA will be busy.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3448 on: February 12, 2019, 06:45:04 PM »
Most of Middle TN is running +8 to +12 so far this month.  Although those will get reduced as we look to at least cool to average in the coming weeks, we are pretty much a lock to finish February on the + side.  Meaning that all 3 winters months will be above average in our area.  The only other time I have found during a weak to moderate El-Nino where that happened was 1951-52. 

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3449 on: February 12, 2019, 06:50:06 PM »
Most of Middle TN is running +8 to +12 so far this month.  Although those will get reduced as we look to at least cool to average in the coming weeks, we are pretty much a lock to finish February on the + side.  Meaning that all 3 winters months will be above average in our area.  The only other time I have found during a weak to moderate El-Nino where that happened was 1951-52.

In other words, we were wayyy overdue for an outlier. Makes sense actually.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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