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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 1789 times)

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Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #45 on: August 22, 2019, 07:47:15 AM »
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 05:31:14 PM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #46 on: August 22, 2019, 08:24:34 AM »
The winter thread is to the fourth page, and it's still August? It's a blockbuster already.  ::cold:: ;)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #47 on: August 22, 2019, 05:23:12 PM »
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.

I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #48 on: Yesterday at 07:16:23 AM »
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #49 on: Yesterday at 07:51:46 AM »
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.


Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #50 on: Yesterday at 10:44:06 AM »
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.



Interesting to compare Northern and Southern Hemisphere SSTs.

 

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