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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 258053 times)

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Offline pirates1

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1920 on: January 24, 2016, 11:10:21 PM »
Should schools be able to go back by Tuesday?  Looks like Brentwood has a lot of melting to do.  Some places are so shaded I am not sure.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1921 on: January 25, 2016, 05:30:45 AM »

Should schools be able to go back by Tuesday?  Looks like Brentwood has a lot of melting to do.  Some places are so shaded I am not sure.

With a high today of 50 and rain likely tonight with temperatures well above freezing, that should really wipe out most if not all of any residual ice on the roads by Tuesday morning, at least in Williamson County.  I think the Fairview area probably received the most snow in the county, so it might depend on how effective today's melting is in those hills and hollows over that way.


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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1922 on: January 25, 2016, 10:31:24 AM »
This is crazy. Look at the finger that goes thru MEM up thru JBR.


Offline pirates1

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1923 on: January 25, 2016, 12:01:52 PM »
looks like Brentwood is having a hard time thawing.  Does anyone know how Fairview is?

Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1924 on: January 25, 2016, 03:33:32 PM »

This is crazy. Look at the finger that goes thru MEM up thru JBR.






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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1925 on: January 25, 2016, 05:25:58 PM »
Excellent post-event analysis of the models and forecast from Friday's event by Paul Heggen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EY1XQAN-Gic&sns=em




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Offline rbowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1926 on: January 26, 2016, 10:26:06 AM »
Excellent post-event analysis of the models and forecast from Friday's event by Paul Heggen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EY1XQAN-Gic&sns=em




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Does he explain why he blew his forecast worse than any other TV met in Nashville for this storm? He lost a lot of credibility in my eyes with his less than an inch forecast even after the NWS had gone with WSW and 3 to 5 inch totals.

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1927 on: January 26, 2016, 10:31:00 AM »
Does he explain why he blew his forecast worse than any other TV met in Nashville for this storm? He lost a lot of credibility in my eyes with his less than an inch forecast even after the NWS had gone with WSW and 3 to 5 inch totals.

He explains it well in his video and gives very plausible reasoning for his forecast.  I think you are being a bit harsh on him.

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1928 on: January 26, 2016, 10:33:16 AM »
Does he explain why he blew his forecast worse than any other TV met in Nashville for this storm? He lost a lot of credibility in my eyes with his less than an inch forecast even after the NWS had gone with WSW and 3 to 5 inch totals.
Going with the inch or less tactic no matter what the models have shown for Memphis and Nashville has been a very successful formula for those mets for a while now. I think Mundie said it the other day, "that works....until it doesn't!"

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1929 on: January 26, 2016, 10:42:57 AM »
Does he explain why he blew his forecast worse than any other TV met in Nashville for this storm? He lost a lot of credibility in my eyes with his less than an inch forecast even after the NWS had gone with WSW and 3 to 5 inch totals.

Watch the video.  He admitted where he thought he went wrong on the models.  There's a great discussion on the RGM (which was not showing much the day before the storm in Nashville).  It generally has a better handle on the short term compared to the globals.  But, this time around, it mishandled the evolution of the storm.  Think about what happened in Memphis.  Models were showing blizzard conditions there, and local forecasters there forecasted a greater hit than in Nashville.  But, they got next to nothing.

In the video, he gives his thought processes of why he went the direction he did on the models. 

I've seen where the NWS will tend to broadbrush the area and smooth out modeled accumulation gradients (which is understandable considering run to run variations).  That usually causes forecasts to bust for certain locations.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 11:29:11 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1930 on: January 26, 2016, 12:49:48 PM »
First - I want to say that I love that Paul takes the time to pop in over here occasionally leading up to more disruptive events. Being a broadcast met was hard enough before web 2.0 came around... and jumping in over here (even if its sometimes to poke a stick in our eye when we're getting a bit too gung ho) isn't something in his job description and I think speaks to the fact that despite the on air persona, he still is a nerd like us.

That being said, he's right about how there are different philosophies in forecasting. One is to try and look at the data and warn people of the possibilities, even knowing the general public doesn't understand that forecasting is a game of probability, and take your licks when what appeared to be probable enough to warrant warning people about it doesn't play out. This is basically how the NWS has to operate. They are not going into outright hype mode, but they are going to try and lean towards the worst case scenario. Other forecasters... Dave Brown being the most notorious, are going to essentially play the odds. Anyone with a modicum of intelligence and experience living in the same place for a period of time knows that a truly disruptive snow event does not occur too frequently here. Even if every model is saying snowpocalypse, if you lean towards the low side, you're going to be right more than you're wrong.

I'm not a big fan of that - but for someone who doesn't understand probabilities or the weather at all, those guys sure look like geniuses most of the time. I guess that's the draw.

But again. It works until it doesn't. And when it doesn't, you just have to hope that the years of good will you've built up from downplaying everything and looking brilliant is enough to carry you through the backlash of people that trust you driving to work and getting stuck in a top 15 snowstorm.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1931 on: January 26, 2016, 01:43:21 PM »

Think about what happened in Memphis.  Models were showing blizzard conditions there, and local forecasters there forecasted a greater hit than in Nashville.  But, they got next to nothing.

Yeah, if you're a Memphis met the past few days have probably been pretty rough.  As in pitchforks, tar and feathers. 


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Offline rbowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1932 on: January 26, 2016, 02:12:14 PM »
I just think it would be prudent for the broadcast mets to let the public know all the variables that the models are showing instead of either always playing the low odds or always over hiping every event. Just present a forecast that says if the euro model is correct then this will happen and if the gfs is correct then this will happen. Inform the public of the possibilities and let them prepare as they wish.

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Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1933 on: January 26, 2016, 02:24:41 PM »

I just think it would be prudent for the broadcast mets to let the public know all the variables that the models are showing instead of either always playing the low odds or always over hiping every event. Just present a forecast that says if the euro model is correct then this will happen and if the gfs is correct then this will happen. Inform the public of the possibilities and let them prepare as they wish.

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I guesstimate that a fair percentage of the populace doesn't know (or care) that there are multiple weather models all giving slightly different solutions which are blended, etc.


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Offline Crockett

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1934 on: January 26, 2016, 09:24:02 PM »
I just think it would be prudent for the broadcast mets to let the public know all the variables that the models are showing instead of either always playing the low odds or always over hiping every event. Just present a forecast that says if the euro model is correct then this will happen and if the gfs is correct then this will happen. Inform the public of the possibilities and let them prepare as they wish.


I disagree. If meteorology were just throwing out what the models say, all of us here would be meteorologists. If you get on TV and say, "The GFS says 7 inches of snow, while the ECMWF says 5, but the GGEM says only a trace of snow and the HRRR says 4 inches and the RUC says 2 inches," etc., it is just going to cause mass confusion. It's called guidance for a reason. Sadly, too many broadcast meteorologists are resorting to just regurgitating model data (to make matters worse, it's usually those in-house models that aren't overly reliable) instead of making real forecasts. But any met who is worth his salt will use the guidance as a tool to making a forecast that delivers definitive expectations. Paul did that. He was wrong on this one, but his track record speaks for itself.

 

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