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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265994 times)

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Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1380 on: January 22, 2016, 06:47:55 AM »
Give the short term models credit on this one. Several showed us hanging on to mixed precip longer and then the band nearly vanishing as energy moved east from 6-7 am. That's almost exactly what's happening. Our best window for QPF was 2-4 am when I was up earlier. Just didn't change over fast enough.

We were never supposed to get much overnight, though.  We were supposed to catch the trowal but the trowal disappated. 

I'm not sure there's a lot of head scratching going on now but I'm not impressed with any of the computer models on this one. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Clay

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1381 on: January 22, 2016, 06:48:41 AM »
Massive snowflakes. Some were probably 1.5" in diameter.. ::cold::

Offline Frank P

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1382 on: January 22, 2016, 06:49:15 AM »
All light sleet now in north east Franklin...

Offline Spankadelphia

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1383 on: January 22, 2016, 06:50:49 AM »
The saddest words of tongue and pen,

KMEM busted again...
"Well, with volcanoes, keep a couple, fill the rest in.  Tidy it up a bit.  No, seriously, they're a deathtrap."

Offline cloudcrash619

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1384 on: January 22, 2016, 06:52:56 AM »
I knew this had decent bust potential so I was prepared, but its still disappointing. Nice call Spencer Denton  ::)

Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1385 on: January 22, 2016, 06:53:40 AM »
The saddest words of tongue and pen,

KMEM busted again...

Modeling showed peak conditions from mid-morning through early afternoon for the metro. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1386 on: January 22, 2016, 06:54:08 AM »
Would love for he RGEM latest to verify!

Offline OBstorm89

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1387 on: January 22, 2016, 06:54:56 AM »
Hrrr called this

Online snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1388 on: January 22, 2016, 06:56:48 AM »
LOL, RGEM with a 15" bullseye over BNA. 

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1389 on: January 22, 2016, 06:58:21 AM »
Looks like I'm getting into the dry slot now (if that's the right technical term)... precip has slacked off.  But, plenty more to come.

Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1390 on: January 22, 2016, 06:58:38 AM »
LOL- there is an active MD out from SPC for us right now and we busted- this has to be some kind of record last-minute bust:



Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND
   NRN/CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 220958Z - 221500Z

   SUMMARY...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION MOVES EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z. HEAVY SNOW
   WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...09Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN IS OCCURRING
   EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NRN MS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
   ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
   CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CNTRL INTO ERN AR. A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR
   TCL/BHM AS OF 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AS THE UPPER LOW
   EVIDENT OVER THE ARKLAMISS LIKEWISE MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING.
   CONTINUED LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAA AROUND THE WRN HALF OF THESE FEATURES
   WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
   THEN TO SNOW THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO
   BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND NRN/CNTRL MS.

   FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/HR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR GENERALLY 1-3 HOURS BEFORE THE
   CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. DUAL-POL CC DATA FROM KNQA DEPICTS A
   LOWERING MELTING LAYER WITH TIME...SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET
   AND THEN SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY 11-12Z. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1
   INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN AR INTO
   WRN TN/NRN MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
   LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CNTRL/ERN AR. IN ADDITION...SOME
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
   MCD AREA...AND AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM W TO E
   AROUND/AFTER 15Z AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVES E OF
   THE REGION.

   ..GLEASON.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34909222 35529205 36389083 36348970 36148858 35198854
               33868893 33118929 32808990 32489079 33749204 34909222


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Sbeagles

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1391 on: January 22, 2016, 06:59:37 AM »
Looks like I'm going to have a while to dry out

Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1392 on: January 22, 2016, 07:00:35 AM »
Looks like the entirety of Mid Tn gets in on the deformation business.  The low just pivots right over BNA..

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1393 on: January 22, 2016, 07:01:06 AM »
The fact we still have, roughly, 8-10 hours of snow still to go makes :)
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Offline ChrisPC

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #1394 on: January 22, 2016, 07:02:29 AM »
HUGE flakes in Hermitage. Everything is already covered. Was just rain/sleet an hour ago.

 

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