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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265989 times)

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Offline Scot

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #975 on: January 21, 2016, 07:18:27 PM »
Wouldn't a quicker changeover as the NWS is now predicting mean higher totals?


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Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #976 on: January 21, 2016, 07:20:16 PM »
Wouldn't a quicker changeover as the NWS is now predicting mean higher totals?


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It should - but honestly, at the totals we're at right now, that's enough to shut these cities down. No one in their right mind is gonna start throwing out anything higher than they are currently, even if they are confident, because the risk/reward doesn't make sense. Ok, so you predicted 4 inches and got 8... no one gets upset about that. You predict 8 and you get 2... people notice and get angry.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Scot

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #977 on: January 21, 2016, 07:22:30 PM »
I'm getting pretty excited about the potential!


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Offline mempho

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #978 on: January 21, 2016, 07:23:29 PM »
It should - but honestly, at the totals we're at right now, that's enough to shut these cities down. No one in their right mind is gonna start throwing out anything higher than they are currently, even if they are confident, because the risk/reward doesn't make sense. Ok, so you predicted 4 inches and got 8... no one gets upset about that. You predict 8 and you get 2... people notice and get angry.
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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline chelseaintn

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #979 on: January 21, 2016, 07:26:09 PM »
Have to watch carefully to see when to head into work in Nashville in the AM. Have to be there at 1030. We can't call in without at least trying - ER's don't ever close.  :D

Offline Adam

Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #980 on: January 21, 2016, 07:26:58 PM »
It is probably past time for models, but the 0z HRRR has a 996 mb low that sits over NW Alabama for 6 hours. It hardly moves once it is there. I remember Kevin explaining that this is a classic move for a mid latitude cyclone. The cyclone literally pivots there for a long period of time while it strengthens.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline Drifter49

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #981 on: January 21, 2016, 07:27:09 PM »
Have to watch carefully to see when to head into work in Nashville in the AM. Have to be there at 1030. We can't call in without at least trying - ER's don't ever close.  :D

Thank you for all you do!
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Trevor

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #982 on: January 21, 2016, 07:29:09 PM »
Interesting...HRRR has the majority of precip in that gap falling as sleet and freezing rain.


Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #983 on: January 21, 2016, 07:29:53 PM »
It is probably past time for models, but the 0z HRRR has a 996 mb low that sits over NW Alabama for 6 hours. It hardly moves once it is there. I remember Kevin explaining that this is a classic move for a mid latitude cyclone. The cyclone literally pivots there for a long period of time while it strengthens.

Right - your localized heavy snow areas are where this pivot occurs. The low pressure stops forward movement and the trough starts tilting and then the transfer occurs. This is a situation that happens much more often in the northeast than down here. But here we are.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #984 on: January 21, 2016, 07:32:08 PM »
Interesting...HRRR has the majority of precip in that gap falling as sleet and freezing rain.



Sure does. If that's really snow then that map looks totally different. HRR picks up on the trowel through and its a doozy in west tn.

That's nearly 5 hours of sleet in Shelby Co before a changeover
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 07:34:38 PM by Curt »

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #985 on: January 21, 2016, 07:33:37 PM »
Gonna be a lot of disappointed kids (bid and small) in MEG if the short-term models keep trending this way.

My little boy has been jumping out of his shoes all night ready to play in the snow. Keep telling him there is no guarantee it will come...hope it does...

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #986 on: January 21, 2016, 07:42:23 PM »
Gonna be a lot of disappointed kids (bid and small) in MEG if the short-term models keep trending this way.

My little boy has been jumping out of his shoes all night ready to play in the snow. Keep telling him there is no guarantee it will come...hope it does...

Prob a tad too early to call anything a disappointment? Even if it falls as sleet- which I doubt...that's a complete mess given winds that high.

Latest SREF at Millington avg 5-6 inches now. Tons clustered between 5-6 fairly tight.

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #987 on: January 21, 2016, 07:50:26 PM »
Short term soundings show a warm nose aloft at 900-925 that persists for all of East Ark, West TN and NW MS for just about the duration of the storm. Seems odd to me. It's not present in KY, NE MS, South Ark or even SW and central MS. As if there is a pool of warm air above us that doesn't move or modified by the heavy precip.

Offline Stevo

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #988 on: January 21, 2016, 07:53:16 PM »
The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has declared a State Of Emergency.
“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”  (Mark Twain)

Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #989 on: January 21, 2016, 07:55:23 PM »

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has declared a State Of Emergency.

How rare is that for a winter storm hours before it gets cranking?


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