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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265987 times)

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Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #900 on: January 21, 2016, 03:51:19 PM »
18z GFS is a mirror copy of the 12z euro. Memphis metro 3-4 along the river, 8 collierville/ Arlington, over a foot in Fayette. Dry slot starts at Savannah and screws the southern tn counties all the way to chatt. Nashville 5-7  gradient to the southeast although there is a nice 8 inch dot over Rutherford and eric

Offline Drifter49

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #901 on: January 21, 2016, 03:51:35 PM »
Drove by the Germantown Kroger a few minutes ago and decided that it wasn't worth fighting the crowd. Hopefully at around 9 tonight it won't be too crowded.

By then there may not be anything to buy..Act quick!
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #902 on: January 21, 2016, 03:57:17 PM »
18z GFS FWIW


Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #903 on: January 21, 2016, 04:00:53 PM »
I am getting more and more excited as we get closer. Now just hope I can get home from work before it gets too bad! ::snowman::
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Offline harlequin

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #904 on: January 21, 2016, 04:01:42 PM »
Quote
Discussion: 
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
As of 3pm... temperatures are slightly cooler in the north than guidance had previously suggested with readings still below freezing. elsewhere, temperature have rose above freezing with readings predominantly in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Moderate rain was detected over north Mississippi at this hour, with thunderstorms just to our immediate south. Latest surface analysis places a deepening low pressure system near the arklatex, with a stationary front strewn across central Louisiana and Mississippi. water vapor imagery depicts two Separate shortwaves, with one over the arklatex and another near the Oklahoma and Arkansas border. Short term, tonight through Saturday... a major winter storm will impact the entire mid-south beginning tonight and continuing through Friday night. The main concern this evening will be light icing over northeast Arkansas and portions of west Tennessee. The roads are already bad in these areas and temperature have failed to break the freezing mark this afternoon. freezing rain will be the primary p type through approximately midnight, with accumulations possibly reaching a tenth of an inch. The aforementioned low pressure system is expected to track across central Mississippi, keeping the mid-south on the north side of the low which is very favorable position for heavy accumulating snow. Rain and freezing rain is expected overspread the entire mid-south after midnight and then transistion to sleet as cold air wraps around the low. There is still some uncertainty as to how quickly this will occur, but model soundings suggest that it should not last longer than 2 hours and accumulations should remain under an inch or so. As the cold air cuts into the region from the northwest, snow will overspread the areas along and east of the river around sunrise tomorrow. Heavy snow will persist through the afternoon hours, as rates could exceed 1 inch per hour. As previously mentioned in earlier forecasts, there will be some instability to work with, so thundersnow and convective bands will be possible. The general model consensus is that the heaviest snow will likely fall along the i-40 corridor. This is nearly the worst case scenario for any commuters that must be on the road tomorrow. We urge everyone to take this forecast seriously tonight and avoid travel tomorrow if at all possible. Anywhere from 4 to 8 inches will fall in this corridor, with even higher amounts possible where any convective bands set up. Northeast Mississippi will likely see the least amount of snow, so upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm advisory. The heaviest snow fall will exit the region around 6 pm tomorrow, with lingering snow showers possible through about the 9pm hour. Very cold air will then move into the mid-south, preserving any snowfall on the ground and turning any melted snow into ice. As plenty of snow will be on the ground, i have went ahead and undercut guidance by a few degrees for Saturday morning. High pressure will build at the surface on Saturday and the sun should come out by Saturday afternoon. We should see some Decent melting due to the incoming solar radiation, albeit the cold air temperatures. Another cold night is expected on Saturday, before we see a nice warmup on Sunday. temperatures will climb into the upper 30s and 40s for Sunday, and most wintry precipitation should almost completely melt. The long term was heavily weighted with the superblend. It appears that temperatures will moderate and slight chance of rain will return to the mid-south beginning early next week. Ac3
________________________________________

Aviation: 18Z taf Ifr to lifr conditions will persist over the next 24 hours as a significant winter storm develops impacting all taf sites. Prior to the arrival of the winter weather a line of thunderstorms will impact tup and now through around 21Z. Another round of thunderstorms is possible around 00Z at tup and meg, although confidence is not high that these storms will develop. East winds will shift more northerly overnight, increasing to 10-20kt prior to sunrise, then 25-35kt with gusts to 40kt tomorrow before 18Z. freezing rain and or freezing drizzle is expected at jbr where temperatures will remain subfreezing. Snow, heavy at times is expected to begin at jbr after 09Z, at mem between 10 and 12Z at mkl between 11 and 13Z and at tup after 15Z. Heavy snow May reduce visibility to less than 1/4sm. additionally, blowing snow could result in blizzard conditions during the day tomorrow.
________________________________________



Offline shaft311

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #905 on: January 21, 2016, 04:02:09 PM »

Offline RobD

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #906 on: January 21, 2016, 04:03:33 PM »
Those far southern snow lines into MS & AL can't be right, can they? That's farther south than Tuscaloosa and Jackson, MS.


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Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #907 on: January 21, 2016, 04:03:44 PM »
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Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #908 on: January 21, 2016, 04:05:22 PM »
Not sure if anyone posted this earlier but SREF plume mean 4-5 in the Memphis area

Offline bonzomemphis

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #909 on: January 21, 2016, 04:07:57 PM »
Those far southern snow lines into MS & AL can't be right, can they? That's farther south than Tuscaloosa and Jackson, MS.


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Probably overdone as a whole but BMX did issue a WWA for their central AL counties and Spann said a dusting with localized amounts of an inch north of I-20 are possible. I have my doubts but if any convective bands extend that far south a quick thump wouldn't be out of the question.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #910 on: January 21, 2016, 04:23:26 PM »
In other news there is currently 4 TORS just south of Jackson Ms. What a dynanic system.

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #911 on: January 21, 2016, 04:25:02 PM »
18z GFS FWIW



Thank god one of the models finally put something other than 1 or 2 over Cannon and Rutherford Counties!
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Offline StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #912 on: January 21, 2016, 04:33:46 PM »
In other news there is currently 4 TORS just south of Jackson Ms. What a dynanic system.

Not that far from the Winter Storm Warning as well. 

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #913 on: January 21, 2016, 04:36:39 PM »
18z GFS is a mirror copy of the 12z euro. Memphis metro 3-4 along the river, 8 collierville/ Arlington, over a foot in Fayette. Dry slot starts at Savannah and screws the southern tn counties all the way to chatt. Nashville 5-7  gradient to the southeast although there is a nice 8 inch dot over Rutherford and eric

Curt Eric & I & fellow Rutherford county residents are holding you to that 8"!

Offline RABBITT040

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #914 on: January 21, 2016, 04:44:26 PM »
Nws saying 3-5" for Franklin and 5-8" for Fairview now...Totals way up from earlier.

 

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