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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266191 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #870 on: January 21, 2016, 03:07:10 PM »
Guys, we need to remember that models are a PREDICTOR of what COULD happen. Even the short term modeling could be off. There is no need to be cliff diving.

We have seen events where models say one thing happens and we all get surprised. It happens.
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #871 on: January 21, 2016, 03:08:24 PM »

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #872 on: January 21, 2016, 03:10:27 PM »
MEG live
https://youtu.be/ErECHJ2LKlE

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 03:11:11 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErECHJ2LKlE


Oops... we both had same idea lol

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #873 on: January 21, 2016, 03:11:55 PM »
The latest HRRR is thankfully pretty low on the ice(only a few hundreth's and up to a tenth in NW TN/TN-KY border) potential versus some other model runs particularly the NAM.

From what I understand.  The HRRR is great with precip.  But terrible with temps.

Offline bonzomemphis

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #874 on: January 21, 2016, 03:11:59 PM »
MEG afternoon briefing starting now.

Still rolling with a pre-dawn changeover in Memphis proper. Sticking with their current snowfall map with 4-6" in the Delta and 6-8 as you progress NE from Tipton.

Think there may be a longer period of freezing rain and sleet in NE Arkansas overnight with a more narrow window elsewhere. 

Offline ServoCrow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #875 on: January 21, 2016, 03:12:59 PM »
Look at this thing starting to wind up on the Vis Sat:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html
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Offline bonzomemphis

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #876 on: January 21, 2016, 03:15:21 PM »
MEG:

Localized amounts up to 10". Confidence still very high in a major event for most of area.

Used "near-blizzard conditions likely" again in the youtube update.

Travel "difficult to impossible."

Pretty similar to their earlier update from this am.

MEG says specifically as of now they are not going with a Blizzard Warning. May flirt with those conditions at times but time constraint may prevent reaching that criteria.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 03:18:50 PM by bonzomemphis »

Offline wfrogge

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #877 on: January 21, 2016, 03:17:35 PM »
As we start to nowcast remember you can get a good overview of temps and assumed falling precip at
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Offline joemomma

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #878 on: January 21, 2016, 03:23:17 PM »
What happens to the precip over the plateau?  Looks like it goes dry...

Offline Curt

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #879 on: January 21, 2016, 03:24:24 PM »


Last frame of HRR. Def dry slot about to be go bye bye along the river

Offline ServoCrow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #880 on: January 21, 2016, 03:24:41 PM »
Quote
NewsChannel 5 Retweeted
 Cuthbert Langley ‏@NC5_CLangley  6m6 minutes ago
#BREAKING: A state of emergency has been declared for #Tennessee as severe, winter weather looms.
"Don't think it hasn't been a little slice of heaven...'cause it hasn't."
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Offline DocB

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #881 on: January 21, 2016, 03:30:03 PM »

Well, the grocery store lines will now be insane after 5pm when many get off work.

Offline Drifter49

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #882 on: January 21, 2016, 03:30:56 PM »
Well, the grocery store lines will now be insane after 5pm when many get off work.

They were insane here an hour ago lol
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #883 on: January 21, 2016, 03:31:58 PM »
I meant nothing by it. I can delete it, I'm pulling for everybody. My concern when posting that was sleet, we've had a ton of it on most of our big systems. That was my paranoid sarcastic comment that come across wrong I guess. I'm pulling for Nashville. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

LOL, I was just having fun with ya.  It was all good.

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 03:32:50 PM
Weatherbell is more generous with 3-4 in most of Shelby except less in eastern Shelby. North central ms definitely dry slotted except the delta.

Nam looks NOTHING like the 4k

The 4k has been wonky with this storm all along.  Weird.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #884 on: January 21, 2016, 03:34:20 PM »
 ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::


 

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