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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266085 times)

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Offline WXHD

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #825 on: January 21, 2016, 02:15:05 PM »
Starting to get to the point where the track shouldn't change much

Just the temps!
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Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #826 on: January 21, 2016, 02:16:20 PM »
18z NAM clown.  These numbers are inflated, but you could make an argument where 50-60% of the total seems plausible.



Notice the tight gradient over Rutherford Co.  Holy smokes...Lavergne could see 3-4" where the Boro sees squadoosh.  Makes me glad I moved N.
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Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #827 on: January 21, 2016, 02:16:49 PM »


Ouch that dry slot means serious business. South of desoto co on this run not good. Northern Shelby if pure gold here. Someone just north of the dry slot is gonna cash in big time

Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #828 on: January 21, 2016, 02:19:43 PM »

12km accumulation map. Still showing the huge gradient across middle TN.

(Attachment Link)

Am I correct that if this verified it would be the first time in many years that the *entire state* had at least some snow accumulation on the same day?


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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #829 on: January 21, 2016, 02:20:59 PM »
The low placement on Tidbits 4k 18z NAM does something wonk from hour 12 to hour 15.  Anyone else see that?   ::scratch::

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 02:23:21 PM
Anyone with EPS mean...does the deform band placement match the op?
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 02:23:21 PM by snowdog, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #830 on: January 21, 2016, 02:24:27 PM »
19z HRRR gives CKV a 33F rain at 3am.  That's a cold arse rain.
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Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #831 on: January 21, 2016, 02:24:34 PM »

12km accumulation map. Still showing the huge gradient across middle TN.

(Attachment Link)

I'm in North Williamson which looks to be on the razors edge between feast and famine.  I guess for the **** of it, I'd like to see the system shift south another 30 miles... then go do some serious sledding!


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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #832 on: January 21, 2016, 02:25:33 PM »
19z HRRR gives CKV a 33F rain at 3am.  That's a cold arse rain.
I just pray it doesn't stay at 33. LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #833 on: January 21, 2016, 02:28:37 PM »
I just pray it doesn't stay at 33. LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!  This coming from the guy who has a better chance of being buried than seeing 33 and rain for the event. 

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #834 on: January 21, 2016, 02:31:22 PM »
I'm in North Williamson which looks to be on the razors edge between feast and famine.  I guess for the **** of it, I'd like to see the system shift south another 30 miles... then go do some serious sledding!


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Models all day has shown me in a good spot, but this gradient is so tight I still am very nervous.

The 18z NAM wants to change Sumner/Macon over to snow by noon. So, pretty much, if we change over by noon then we are in for a HUGE event.
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #835 on: January 21, 2016, 02:31:49 PM »
BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!  This coming from the guy who has a better chance of being buried than seeing 33 and rain for the event.
I was just being sarcastic with him, I'm pulling for everybody man. It's funny my NWS service grids we are at 31 and the low tonight is 32. I am more worried about the sleet transitioning to snow. Sleet is the worst of driving conditions. Good luck to all. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #836 on: January 21, 2016, 02:32:58 PM »
Very pronounced dry slots starting to show up on the RAP and HRRR that give me pause.

Offline harlequin

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #837 on: January 21, 2016, 02:33:18 PM »


Ouch that dry slot means serious business. South of desoto co on this run not good. Northern Shelby if pure gold here. Someone just north of the dry slot is gonna cash in big time

Yikes. That would be an annoying gradient. Very nice totals though still for from Downtown and Midtown northward.

Offline Lcwthrnut

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #838 on: January 21, 2016, 02:34:00 PM »
The low placement on Tidbits 4k 18z NAM does something wonk from hour 12 to hour 15.  Anyone else see that?   ::scratch::

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 02:23:21 PM
Anyone with EPS mean...does the deform band placement match the op?
It looks like the low drops and goes west for me is that what your talking about!?

Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #839 on: January 21, 2016, 02:34:27 PM »
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