1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Charles L.]

SREF snowfall mean for Nashville is around 4".

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[Coach B]

15Z SREF totals are up slightly statewide. Especially for nw middle TN.

[Clarksville Snowman]

When does it look like CKV's transition time will be at the moment. Best guesses from the best.

[bonzomemphis]

Feel a bit bad for the folks over at LZK. Accumulations in AR seem all over the place.

Several of the public forecast maps look wonky.

MEG still has the headline map from earlier showing the larger swath of heavy snowfall along and west of the river, and their 1pm update showed the more likely area for it from Fayette County up to Jackson to Clarksville.

The LZK map shows Little Rock and Jonesboro cashing in with less along I-40 as you get to MEG's forecast area.

Coordination between offices would be helpful during events like this.

[snowdog]

SREF Plume has taken a decent jump for BNA.  Now around 4.5" mean avg.

Hopkinsville around 7.5".   

[Eric]

SREF Plume has taken a decent jump for BNA.  Now around 4.25" mean avg.

It was around 2.5" earlier.

[snowdog]

It was around 2.5" earlier.

Yeah, good jump...im guessing the 12z data ingest?

[Eric]

Yeah, good jump...im guessing the 12z data ingest?

Seems like a plausible guess.

[Dyersburg Weather]

SREF plume mean up to 5.25 for DYR

[harlequin]

Several of the public forecast maps look wonky.

MEG still has the headline map from earlier showing the larger swath of heavy snowfall along and west of the river, and their 1pm update showed the more likely area for it from Fayette County up to Jackson to Clarksville.

The LZK map shows Little Rock and Jonesboro cashing in with less along I-40 as you get to MEG's forecast area.

Coordination between offices would be helpful during events like this.

Fortunately LZK's newer map does jive better with MEG. I know which LZK map you mean (it's still up on the front page of their site) but they updated it on Twitter and different outlets and I guess forgot to on the homepage.

Latest LZK:


Whoops.. and another update!

[snowdog]

Seems like a plausible guess.

Funny thing is it blends the members of ARW and NMB.  But if you seperate them, ARW show 3" average for BNA and NMB shows 6" avg.  LOL.  There are some real good members in the NMB group...one with 14" in BNA. 

[Eric]

No major changes from the 18z to the 12z NAM.  Maybe a hair warmer at 850, but not much. 

Looking at skew-Ts from the 18z NAM, BNA changes over between 6-9am.  That's crazy early.

[Curt]

Starting to get to the point where the track shouldn't change much

[Coach B]

HUN going WWA for their CWA with a possible upgrade to Warning for TN counties if needed:

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HAVE 
 OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS (2 SEGMENTS FOR 
 STARTING AND ENDING TIMES). WE MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN SRN TN AND 
 FAR NW THAT COULD EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA IF THE DEFORMATION SNOW 
 BAND SETS UP IN THESE AREAS, SO WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE AT A LATER    TIME IF THIS OCCURS. 

Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 02:13:20 PM

Starting to get to the point where the track shouldn't change much

Yup, all about where any deform bands set up now.

[Charles L.]

12km accumulation map. Still showing the huge gradient across middle TN.

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