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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 265364 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #780 on: January 21, 2016, 01:03:01 PM »
FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working.  8)

Offline Crockett

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #781 on: January 21, 2016, 01:05:19 PM »
Here are the highlights of MRX's briefing this afternoon:

Midnight-7am: Patches of freezing rain along northern plateau; rain elsewhere.
7am-1pm: Wintry mix changing to snow along the tier of counties closest the TN/KY border, upper East TN and the mountains.
1pm-6pm: Snow, sometimes heavy, for northern plateau. Wintry mix northern TN, upper East TN. Heavy snow, near blizzard conditions in the mountains. Wintry mix southern plateau. Rain valley.
6pm-midnight: Snow for all.
Total accums:


Offline toastido

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #782 on: January 21, 2016, 01:06:02 PM »
FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working.  8)

Thanks for noting that.  Fixed.  ::rofl::
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #783 on: January 21, 2016, 01:07:15 PM »
FYI. The chat that we used last night is still working.  8)

The mobile chat uses as much - if not more of - server resources.  Until this system is over and done, the chat should be, and soon will be, off-limits. 

Thanks for noting that.  Fixed.  ::rofl::

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Offline mmk3742

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #784 on: January 21, 2016, 01:10:04 PM »
Trend slightly southeast to Smyrna storm. That way I can justify buying the cool polar bear sled for my polar bear loving four year old.

Offline Farris_TN

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #785 on: January 21, 2016, 01:12:58 PM »
Has NashSevereWX posted lately? ... Just noticed on Twitter that he's saying the changeover in Nashville may not occur until between 4:00 PM and Dark...From what I've seen all the models today have trended back to a Noon time likely change for Nashville, correct?

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #786 on: January 21, 2016, 01:14:48 PM »
How reliable is the WRF?
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http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

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Offline a1star93

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #787 on: January 21, 2016, 01:16:14 PM »
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna
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Offline WestKnoxNavster

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #788 on: January 21, 2016, 01:20:11 PM »
I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna
I drive a school bus here in Knox county and didn't have to leave my bus but I had to take a lot of my kids back on January 28th, 2014 when the school system decided to go to school despite "snow starting after noon and 2-4" expected" and it started at 9a and they dismissed at 11:15 and 12.

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #789 on: January 21, 2016, 01:21:14 PM »
From what I've seen all the models today have trended back to a Noon time likely change for Nashville, correct?
The 5KM ARW has the changeover at 10am on a Nashville-Franklin-Columbia-Waynesboro line.
5KM NMM also has the changeover at 10 on a Nashville to Centerville to Savannah line.

Offline harlequin

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #790 on: January 21, 2016, 01:21:58 PM »
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

The two systems are very different in terms of setup, but timing may not be ideal for Middle TN in terms of closure decisions. At least in Memphis we should be changing over during or before rush hour.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #791 on: January 21, 2016, 01:22:18 PM »
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

This system is pretty different from 1/16/2003 IMO.  That was a bowling ball superclipper low that came at us from the northwest out of NE and MO.

This one is coming at us more out of the southwest... really a different synoptic setup altogether.  The cold air was already in place, and it was snow start to finish on 2003.  This one will begin as rain.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #792 on: January 21, 2016, 01:24:02 PM »
Just wondering your thoughts on the January 16, 2003 system vs our setup for tomorrow.  Does anyone have a way of looking at those resources?  It sure feels like the same setup. 

I don't want to get the kids to school tomorrow only to have the system close early and those babies get stuck at school. 

I remember having to leave my school bus on the side of the road and taking 2 hours to get from La Vergne to Smyrna

Setup wise meterologically it is very different.  1/16/2003 was a smaller system that produced a locally heavier band of snow over the Nashville area.  This one is a huge southern Miller B turned nor'easter with abundant moisture.  Therefore the ceiling for more widespread significant snow is higher.   If I was the school system operate under "Better Safe than Sorry" principle because high winds 25-35MPH combined with snow and rapidly falling temperatures are no conditions for children to be under.  It is much better to blame the weatherman for missing school and to put children in harms way.  I'm confident that at least most schools will learn from what happened a few years ago in AL/GA/SE TN and make the right call. 

Offline KG4GKE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #793 on: January 21, 2016, 01:24:45 PM »
I like the cut of their jib - but I hate it for memphis. I wonder why they seem to be less confident about the deform band over there?

General overall pessimism? Hard to say.  :P 

Offline draelius

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #794 on: January 21, 2016, 01:25:01 PM »
Multiple tornado warnings in SHV. Very dynamic system evolving.

 

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