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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 264294 times)

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Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #765 on: January 21, 2016, 12:32:11 PM »

define buries

I like this one:

To overwhelm (an opponent) beyond hope of recovery.

Get yer snowblowers out!



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Offline ServoCrow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #766 on: January 21, 2016, 12:38:30 PM »
I just read OHX's 11 AM AFD and it looks like it was pretty much c&p'd from the 5 AM one.

 ::whistling::

Deja vu all over again.
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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #767 on: January 21, 2016, 12:39:53 PM »
How does the Euro look at 700mb vs Nam or GFS?

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #768 on: January 21, 2016, 12:44:37 PM »
How does the Euro look at 700mb vs Nam or GFS?

Sub 288 contour closed off over jasper al at noon on the euro.
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #769 on: January 21, 2016, 12:46:51 PM »
How does the Euro look at 700mb vs Nam or GFS?

Euro seems to be quite a bit stronger...more isobars...more concentric.
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Offline utvols235

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #770 on: January 21, 2016, 12:47:52 PM »
Knoxville now under winter storm warning

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #771 on: January 21, 2016, 12:50:09 PM »
WPC map...


Offline mudaddict

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #772 on: January 21, 2016, 12:52:35 PM »
What does 75th percentile mean

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #773 on: January 21, 2016, 12:53:08 PM »
WPC map...



I like the cut of their jib - but I hate it for memphis. I wonder why they seem to be less confident about the deform band over there?
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Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #774 on: January 21, 2016, 12:53:16 PM »
WPC map...


WPC map...



What does this map mean?  Sorry if stupid question.  It shows amount & also 75%?

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #775 on: January 21, 2016, 12:54:37 PM »
Sub 288 contour closed off over jasper al at noon on the euro.

I'm just wondering, with ULL and 700 being south, if there is a chance the deform band could sort of rotate over BNA at it moves NW.  I guess it all depends on strength and transfer timing. 

Offline RABBITT040

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #776 on: January 21, 2016, 12:55:54 PM »
Nws has just put Nashville back to 3-5 just a few min ago. Spring Hill back to 1-3. Things trending in a good direction.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #777 on: January 21, 2016, 12:56:59 PM »
Knoxville now under winter storm warning

That escalated pretty quickly.  My wife is a nurse and scheduled to work 7AM - 7 PM tomorrow.  Based on the timing of the warning I'm afraid she might get stuck.  Even if road conditions are OK for me to go get her the hospital often likes to keep people on site to provide enough staff assuming others won't make it in. 

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #778 on: January 21, 2016, 12:59:31 PM »
What does 75th percentile mean

From WPC...
Percentile accumulations for 24-, 48-, or 72-hour intervals show filled contours of snowfall or freezing rain amounts for which the probability of observing that amount or less is given by the percentile level. For example, if the 75th percentile map shows six inches of snow at a location, then the probability of getting up to six inches of snow is 75% at that point. Conversely, there is only a 25% probability of snowfall exceeding six inches at the location in this example. Percentile accumulations increase as the percentile level increases. To illustrate this point, take the previous example, but instead of the 75th precentile map consider the 10th percentile map showing two inches of snow at the location. In this case, the probability of getting up to but no more than two inches of snow is just 10%. The probability of getting more than two inches is 90%; so, a significant accumulation of snow is likely.

Offline mudaddict

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #779 on: January 21, 2016, 01:01:04 PM »
I just read about that 75th percentile map, think it basically means 75% chance of seeing up to that amount,  25% chance of seeing more

 

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