1/22/2016 Winter Storm

[Kevin Terry]

Here is a 12z GFS sounding valid for KMEM at 12z Friday...
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There is a tiny (40mb thick) +0.4C max temp "warm nose" as seen there on the zoomed view. That's certainly not a freezing rain sounding. Hard to be convinced that's a sleet sounding...

How will it verify I suppose we'll see but....



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[Sbeagles]

Ha it seems like Perry County has been on the fine line of cashing in or getting very little every run. Its a good thing I've grown to love the "let's just see what happens" approach.

[Eric]

define buries

Bury - completely cover; cause to disappear or become inconspicuous.

In this case, W TN and CKV get "completely covered" by snow.

[WXHD]

Kevin, can you pull up BNA?

[Kevin Terry]

Kevin, can you pull up BNA?

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This is slightly more pronounced though still not super thick and with a max temp of only 0.8C. That's teetering on potential sleet but also note that layer is not saturated. If it was saturated it would be at freezing (the blue line indicates the wetbulb line)

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[Curt]

Getting good agreement on wind gusts now from ALL models. For at least 6 hours on the euro, along the MS River from Clarksdale to Memphis and Blytheville, winds look to gust to 40-45mph. MEG almost has to ponder the B-word

[WXHD]

Thanks Kevin!

[Dyersburg Weather]

Getting good agreement on wind gusts now from ALL models. For at least 6 hours on the euro, along the MS River from Clarksdale to Memphis and Blytheville, winds look to gust to 40-45 for almost 6 hours.

MEG might pull trigger after getting all guidance.

[Charles L.]

MEG might pull trigger after getting all guidance.

I think it is a given they will. When all models are showing those gusts with snowfall, you have to act.

[Curt]

IF this comes to fruition, I'm not sure people in the mid south understand how disruptive this will be. This isnt our ordinary snow storm

[Kevin Terry]

MEG will be doing a live Q&A on YouTube at 3 PM...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErECHJ2LKlE

Bookmark the above link perhaps if interested....

[Matthew]

Euro buries W TN, up through CKV, but somehow loses the deformation band bwteen H30-36 as it transfers to the East Coast.  At H24, the low is over Tupelo, H30 it's just W of Atlanta and H36, it's in the Atlantic.

Clown map totals:

CKV 12"
BNA 8"
Boro 2"
MKL 11"
MEM 7-8"
Paris 12"
Cadiz 12"
PAH 4"
All of central KY 10"+

Euro buries W TN, up through CKV, but somehow loses the deformation band bwteen H30-36 as it transfers to the East Coast.  At H24, the low is over Tupelo, H30 it's just W of Atlanta and H36, it's in the Atlantic.

Clown map totals:

CKV 12"
BNA 8"
Boro 2"
MKL 11"
MEM 7-8"
Paris 12"
Cadiz 12"
PAH 4"
All of central KY 10"+

Sigh.   
Well at least the Nashville & west crew will get some snow. Well deserved & needed.

Thanks for info Eric.

[BALLPARK]

Charles looks like we start off getting dry slotted unless it fills in before it gets here.

[kristin]

Does it still look like 2-4 on the plateau?

[Charles L.]

Charles looks like we start off getting dry slotted unless it fills in before it gets here.

The HRRRX, the one that goes out to 24 hours, shows it filling in.