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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266077 times)

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Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #735 on: January 21, 2016, 11:49:14 AM »

Offline bluegrasspr

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #736 on: January 21, 2016, 11:49:48 AM »
Knoxville is holding at 34 degrees, projected high was supposed to be 39. Could the cooler temps speed up our changeover to snow later tonight/tomorrow, or will that be irrelevant by the time the moisture arrives?  Also, some forecasters are saying freezing rain could be a concern for Knoxville and the valley area - would that be just a brief period before changing to snow, or should we be worried about power outages?  Thanks to everyone who posts and shares their knowledge on this site - I really appreciate you tolerating questions from a newbie!

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #737 on: January 21, 2016, 11:50:10 AM »
Wow at the huge dry slot

It seems the things that can go wrong are numerous.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #738 on: January 21, 2016, 11:53:40 AM »
Wow at the huge dry slot

Yep. That is where the HRRR is starting to explode the deform band. I suspect it crushes Memphis. That looks to be insane snow rates.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #739 on: January 21, 2016, 11:55:10 AM »
Three Points

1) I'm working on almost zero sleep and two teeth that are giving me fits of pain among the worst in my life. Was hoping it wouldn't flare up again before tomorrow but here we are. Will be trying my best but no guarantees.

2) Just a very cursory look at the GFS looks like a potential feedback issue we saw on one run a few days ago...but I'm not 100% on that. The break in QPF doesn't make sense and doesn't match up any other modeling data...which hints at a more of a model issue vs. a meteorological issue.

3) I see a lot of questions being raised about precip type. MEG's latest AFD is hinting at it too. I haven't looked at GFS soundings...obviously. But I didn't see any issues on NAM soundings. The Canadian doesn't have soundings...of course. At worst there is a small melting layer between 800-900 but it doesn't seem nearly warm enough to promote full melting. However MEG is hinting that the changeover might be overdone in their morning AFD so I don't know? Deformation bands like these rarely lead to primarily sleet....and any freezing rain potential should be limited to N/W in areas where surface temps linger near freezing before the deformation zone comes into play.

Sorry I can't be more helpful right now.

Offline WestKnoxNavster

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #740 on: January 21, 2016, 11:56:30 AM »
Knoxville is holding at 34 degrees, projected high was supposed to be 39. Could the cooler temps speed up our changeover to snow later tonight/tomorrow, or will that be irrelevant by the time the moisture arrives?  Also, some forecasters are saying freezing rain could be a concern for Knoxville and the valley area - would that be just a brief period before changing to snow, or should we be worried about power outages?  Thanks to everyone who posts and shares their knowledge on this site - I really appreciate you tolerating questions from a newbie!
The local guys are throwing so many "if" out that it's unreal. Yeah, there's a lot of if, but they don't do any blogs to discuss into detail the if to the general public. My thinking, and I'm just a true amateur, is the freezing rain in the Knoxville area will be very brief tomorrow when it's working on changing over, but the further south you go the more risk there is. Really just depends on the temperature tomorrow. So far, the forecast highs have been all high. As far as today, I think we'll reach 40 as forecast.

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #741 on: January 21, 2016, 11:59:25 AM »
MEG evaluating Blizzard warning. Also says sleet may occur for a couple hours before the changeover- thats actually worse for travelling.

Offline Scot

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #742 on: January 21, 2016, 12:01:37 PM »
You guys are awesome!  I mean that!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #743 on: January 21, 2016, 12:01:52 PM »
It is noon and we have had very little snow melt from yesterday. Our road still has a ton of slush on it. I know that is keeping our temp down. We are only at 30F and are predicted to hit a high of 38F.
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Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #744 on: January 21, 2016, 12:04:28 PM »
Same thing here Charles, our situation is the same. We were 29 last hour, we may be at 30 but that's about it. I got a inch of snow in the yard now. I don't see us making 38 at all. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #745 on: January 21, 2016, 12:05:18 PM »
Euro buries W TN, up through CKV, but somehow loses the deformation band bwteen H30-36 as it transfers to the East Coast.  At H24, the low is over Tupelo, H30 it's just W of Atlanta and H36, it's in the Atlantic.

Clown map totals:

CKV 12"
BNA 8"
Boro 2"
MKL 11"
MEM 7-8"
Paris 12"
Cadiz 12"
PAH 4"
All of central KY 10"+
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 12:08:21 PM by Eric »
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Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #746 on: January 21, 2016, 12:05:56 PM »
looks like mermphis to jackson going to get crushed on the euro

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #747 on: January 21, 2016, 12:07:01 PM »
still digging in data, but euro looks to hold serve. Heaviest axis of snow from Hopkinsville to Paris Down to Arlington (ne burb of Memphis)

Looks like dynamically good things are happening for BNA. Looks like the dry slot is a bit further south and east. little to nothing for woodbury (southeast of the boro) Davidson County looks like 6-8 Clarksville looks to get double digits.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #748 on: January 21, 2016, 12:07:06 PM »
euro is 6-8 in shelby co, 5-7 davidson with a tight gradient to the southeast in Nashville metro

Offline Btillman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #749 on: January 21, 2016, 12:09:48 PM »
define buries

 

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