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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266044 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #720 on: January 21, 2016, 11:10:42 AM »
I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

Point taken.   :D

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #721 on: January 21, 2016, 11:12:14 AM »
I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

What are the RPM's verification scores like at this range? Obviously I don't get to see multiple runs of it every day, but it seems like it can have some pretty serious off days.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Curt

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #722 on: January 21, 2016, 11:12:47 AM »
The Canadian is coming in south and east. Looks like it lowers snow amounts a bunch though and is pretty skimpy along the Mississippi.

Canadian - at least along the ms River- has less accumulations not because of precip but sleet then to a quick burst of heavy snow. Sleet is always going to do a number on accums. Sleet is possible just not buoying that with these dynamics

Looking a tad more- Cmc has almost 5-6 hours of freezing rain and blinding sleet at Memphis before 2 hours of moderate snow and 1-2 inches. Not sure maybe it's on to something. Experience tells me different.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 11:17:40 AM by Curt »

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #723 on: January 21, 2016, 11:18:16 AM »
Canadian - at least along the ms River- has less accumulations not because of precip but sleet then to a quick burst of heavy snow. Sleet is always going to do a number on accums. Sleet is possible just not buoying that with these dynamics

This.

The cooling is coming from the top down. Any convection will expedite the changeover. There won't be much sleet or freezing rain here except maybe the northern fringes as this starts organizing.
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Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #724 on: January 21, 2016, 11:26:24 AM »

This.

The cooling is coming from the top down. Any convection will expedite the changeover. There won't be much sleet or freezing rain here except maybe the northern fringes as this starts organizing.

The hi res models are really the best place now to see specifics since we are short term.

Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #725 on: January 21, 2016, 11:31:34 AM »
NWS saying 5-7" for CKV, maybe higher.  2-4" for Rutherford Co, depending on changeover time.  Areas w/WSW not already under a warning will get a WWA tonight.  Maybe some ZR across N sections tonight if temps don't reach +32F today. 
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Offline Vols1

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #726 on: January 21, 2016, 11:36:24 AM »
What's it showing for Dickson Eric?

Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #727 on: January 21, 2016, 11:39:34 AM »
What's it showing for Dickson Eric?

Sorry, man...haven't been focused on Dickson.  Best guess is several inches of snow...2-4", maybe more.
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Offline Susan

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #728 on: January 21, 2016, 11:40:34 AM »
Hope we don't end up with a situation of everyone deciding to leave work at the same time, once the snow begins.  Always makes a bad situation worse.  Hopefully, the local schools will make the decision to close schools early so folks can be off the road before the snow begins. 
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Offline Vols1

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #729 on: January 21, 2016, 11:43:43 AM »
Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

Offline collinsk

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #730 on: January 21, 2016, 11:44:37 AM »
The whole area having a descent show of greater than 4 inches anymore is the same as winning the Powerball, over 1:292,210,000.

Online Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #731 on: January 21, 2016, 11:45:48 AM »
Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

Euro is spooling up now.
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Offline WXHD

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #732 on: January 21, 2016, 11:46:45 AM »
Thanks Eric. When does the next models come out? Maybe by tonight we will have a better idea about it all or just wait to nowcast?

The excitement is just about to start. The Euro runs any minute now.  ::popcorn::
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #733 on: January 21, 2016, 11:47:25 AM »
Hope we don't end up with a situation of everyone deciding to leave work at the same time, once the snow begins.  Always makes a bad situation worse.  Hopefully, the local schools will make the decision to close schools early so folks can be off the road before the snow begins.

I have to be at work at 6:30 tomorrow morning. I pray I am able to leave early/get home before it starts.
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #734 on: January 21, 2016, 11:47:35 AM »
 ::wow::


 

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