* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 264934 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline mtcards

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 48
  • Location: Dickson, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #705 on: January 21, 2016, 10:47:15 AM »
Is Dickson in a decent spot?

Well, it could use a Red Lobster and a Jack in the Box.....but seriously, yes, I think Dickson will do well.   In most models the past few days they have always been inside the money zone, sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot.  With the models trending South now, there is a little breathing room for error.  Still, if you live in North DC, you will see a bit more snow regardless of the actual solution.

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,934
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #706 on: January 21, 2016, 10:48:05 AM »
12z Ukie at 30 hours.  I'd take that.


Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,471
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 618
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #707 on: January 21, 2016, 10:49:56 AM »
We are starting to get in the HRRR range and the current run has the deform band setting up in Arkansas like last nights runs.  ::shrug::

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,148
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #708 on: January 21, 2016, 10:50:34 AM »
The Canadian is coming in south and east. Looks like it lowers snow amounts a bunch though and is pretty skimpy along the Mississippi.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,777
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 176
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #709 on: January 21, 2016, 10:53:12 AM »
Confidence is very high that a major winter storm will impact several of us the amounts will shift around through the event because any trend even 20-30 is huge because there are very sharp gradients both on the NW and SE edge of this band.   I would say areas like Camden, Clarksville, Bowling Green, Dover, and Scottsville are about as close to a lock as you can get for a significant winter storm in our area.   

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,471
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 618
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #710 on: January 21, 2016, 10:53:35 AM »

Offline marjl21

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 337
  • Location: Germantown, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #711 on: January 21, 2016, 10:56:05 AM »
Precip is exploding to our south and west... Lots of lightning as well, even back with the ULL over Dallas.

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,934
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #712 on: January 21, 2016, 10:56:13 AM »
Ukie has roughly 1" of QPF in BNA with 2m's and 850's crashing. 



Post Merge: January 21, 2016, 11:03:21 AM
12z CMC looks kind of like the Euro from the other day.  Takes more of a east route than ENE.  I like the look of that...

« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 11:03:22 AM by snowdog, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline WXHD

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,578
  • Location: Nashville, 37221 Bellevue
  • NWS Storm Spotter. Fan of Extreme Weather.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 605
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #713 on: January 21, 2016, 11:03:32 AM »
Ukie has roughly 1" of QPF in BNA with 2m's and 850's crashing. 



Is it showing that the changeover happens fairly late in the day?
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,934
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #714 on: January 21, 2016, 11:05:34 AM »
Is it showing that the changeover happens fairly late in the day?

Verbatim, going by a meteogram which is pretty crude, roughly looking at 18z...or noon. 

Offline justinmundie

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,663
  • Location: Avondale, Birmingham, Alabama
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 364
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #715 on: January 21, 2016, 11:06:09 AM »
experimental HRRR out to 24 hours (8am) looks like the changeover trying to happen along the I40 corridor in middle. 850s are below 0. 925 looks to have a bit of a warm nose, but heavy rates would likely pull down cold air and change it over. Again. Dynamics.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Vols1

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 285
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #716 on: January 21, 2016, 11:06:31 AM »
Yeah I live in SE Dickson county so I'll probably get the short lol

Offline InMemphis

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 191
  • Location: Germantown, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #717 on: January 21, 2016, 11:08:46 AM »
Any significant changes for the Memphis area?

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #718 on: January 21, 2016, 11:09:21 AM »
experimental HRRR out to 24 hours (8am) looks like the changeover trying to happen along the I40 corridor in middle. 850s are below 0. 925 looks to have a bit of a warm nose, but heavy rates would likely pull down cold air and change it over. Again. Dynamics.

And Memphis is getting hammered and the 10M wind gusts would verify a Blizzard Warning for sure.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline Chipper31

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 26
  • Location: Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #719 on: January 21, 2016, 11:09:35 AM »
Looks like it was posted before he would have had a chance to review the 12Z GFS.  The NAM was out though.

I had the 12z NAM (but not the 4km), the 12z RPM, and the 09z SREF.  Waiting for data from the GFS is like basing your investment strategy on Powerball.

 

* Recent Posts

Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by gcbama
[Today at 03:21:56 PM]
December 2020
by JayCee
[Today at 09:40:09 AM]
November 2020
by JayCee
[Yesterday at 10:40:21 AM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by JayCee
[November 21, 2020, 05:24:16 PM]
New Madrid Seismic Zone Activity
by bugalou
[November 21, 2020, 03:27:27 PM]

Advertisement