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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266171 times)

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Offline Vols1

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #690 on: January 21, 2016, 10:22:34 AM »
Is Dickson in a decent spot?

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #691 on: January 21, 2016, 10:24:01 AM »
The Top 3 CIPS analogs.  To me looking at 500mb set-up the 1st one is pretty close to current set-up...but it was in March and a bit warmer. 

March 2nd 1994
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0302.php

Jan 7th 1996
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0107.php

Feb 22-23 1998
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0222.php

 

Offline dave

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #692 on: January 21, 2016, 10:25:31 AM »


Not blaming him either. I sure wouldn't forecast something that in MOST probabilities won't happen; it doesn't mean it won't make me sad. It is accepted.

It's not hard to find the bright side in not getting walloped. Much easier to go about your weekend with no more than an inch or two of snow. For me the novelty wears off about 10 seconds after I realize that, believing Pauls forecast, I didn't bother preemptively raising up my windshield wipers.


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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #693 on: January 21, 2016, 10:26:44 AM »

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #694 on: January 21, 2016, 10:26:48 AM »

Not blaming him either. I sure wouldn't forecast something that in MOST probabilities won't happen; it doesn't mean it won't make me sad. It is accepted.

I'm guessing he made that before 12z data?

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #695 on: January 21, 2016, 10:27:59 AM »
Its looking like the sleet and freezing Rain going to eat into the Snow totals around the area.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #696 on: January 21, 2016, 10:29:26 AM »
I missed all the fun while in a meeting with a major client (and it was still super tempting to check my phone. I knew the NAM had come a bit south, but meeting started at 8:15)

Need the Euro to hold serve, maybe come in a bit cooler with dynamics same low pressure track. Dynamics are going to be key here for middle tennessee. We need convective banding to change us over early in order to get some decent totals.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #697 on: January 21, 2016, 10:30:20 AM »
I'm guessing he made that before 12z data?

Looks like it was posted before he would have had a chance to review the 12Z GFS.  The NAM was out though.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #698 on: January 21, 2016, 10:33:57 AM »
I missed all the fun while in a meeting with a major client (and it was still super tempting to check my phone. I knew the NAM had come a bit south, but meeting started at 8:15)

Need the Euro to hold serve, maybe come in a bit cooler with dynamics same low pressure track. Dynamics are going to be key here for middle tennessee. We need convective banding to change us over early in order to get some decent totals.

Since the others have come south a little, I fully expect the Euro to go NW. haha
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #699 on: January 21, 2016, 10:37:19 AM »
Meanwhile just to my east, severe hail in Rockwall County.


Offline Beth

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #700 on: January 21, 2016, 10:39:06 AM »
Is Dickson in a decent spot?
Depends on your location! If your in Charlotte or closer to Clarksville you will have more than enough snow! If your close to the interstate like me it will be a little less. Lol  ;D

Offline Lcwthrnut

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #701 on: January 21, 2016, 10:43:03 AM »
Since the others have come south a little, I fully expect the Euro to go NW. haha

We want positive vibes!!

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #702 on: January 21, 2016, 10:44:08 AM »
I am still at 29 here in Montgomery County. I fully expect for temps to once again not make projected high of 38. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline Coach B

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #703 on: January 21, 2016, 10:44:48 AM »
Dynamics are going to be key here for middle tennessee. We need convective banding to change us over early in order to get some decent totals.
I think that is within the realm of possibility. The 850 line is doing some funky things in the morning over middle TN in some of those bands, but I don't know if that's reflected in the snow totals. I think the potential is there for some good surprises to the south and east of the big totals if a band can get going. Of course that's a now casting thing that will be determined in the morning. If I was a public met I would be very cautious in how confident I appeared in my snow forecast.

Offline Crockett

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #704 on: January 21, 2016, 10:45:54 AM »
Winter storm forecasts always have bust potential in this part of the world, but this one has loads of bust potential -- both on the high side and low side of snow totals.

 

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