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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266030 times)

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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #630 on: January 21, 2016, 08:56:30 AM »
One thought on the ground temps worries, I still have some pack here my ground is still covered. Even if it warms up today to a whopping 38 like my high is projected, I just can't see it taking too long to stick. My point is the ground cannot be that warm, and I just can't see it being a huge factor in snow totals, but just watch me be wrong.LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline mudaddict

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #631 on: January 21, 2016, 08:57:36 AM »
Lots of redbull gonna be needed tonight..

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #632 on: January 21, 2016, 08:58:01 AM »
MEG beefing up thundersnow- thoughts? Seen this forecasted before but not materialize except once when NOT forecasted.

The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248



Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #633 on: January 21, 2016, 08:58:56 AM »
As Frank Drebin would say, "Move along, there's nothing to see here."   :police:



Hopefully Servo we in the Boro can get in on some of the heavy snow.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #634 on: January 21, 2016, 08:59:58 AM »
The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248



Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.

Storm chasing in a blizzard.  ::guitar::

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #635 on: January 21, 2016, 09:01:11 AM »
One thought on the ground temps worries, I still have some pack here my ground is still covered. Even if it warms up today to a whopping 38 like my high is projected, I just can't see it taking too long to stick. My point is the ground cannot be that warm, and I just can't see it being a huge factor in snow totals, but just watch me be wrong.LOL! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Agree.  Even here in Smyrna.  I still have a dusting on snow in grassy areas.  A dusting I would have thought would have melted by now.

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #636 on: January 21, 2016, 09:02:45 AM »

The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248



Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.

TSSN can up accums significantly. Good read man

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #637 on: January 21, 2016, 09:03:53 AM »
We are supposed to get to 35 today. We have not been above freezing since Sunday.

Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #638 on: January 21, 2016, 09:04:34 AM »
If those temps can crash just a few more degrees.  This whole area from Boro/Nash to Memphis could have a one heck of a winter storm.

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #639 on: January 21, 2016, 09:05:58 AM »
The forecaster wrote MEG's AFD this morning posted this cross section analysis from the 6z NAM (that was referenced in the AFD). This is a classic slantwise convection setup that produces thundersnow under 500mb deformation axes.

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/690169616233013248



Does have to verify of course. But all the modeled dynamical indicators suggest thunder would be a high probability. This isn't your average synoptic-scale snowstorm setup.


I stayed up reading papers on slantwise convection waiting for the AFD this morning lol

Online Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #640 on: January 21, 2016, 09:08:23 AM »


I stayed up reading papers on slantwise convection waiting for the AFD this morning lol

Leisurely reading eh?

Kevin Terry

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #641 on: January 21, 2016, 09:09:04 AM »

I stayed up reading papers on slantwise convection waiting for the AFD this morning lol

Ha! You were well prepared then  ;D

Offline BigPeter

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #642 on: January 21, 2016, 09:09:47 AM »
If this ends up busting, I may just cry.   :'(

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #643 on: January 21, 2016, 09:11:56 AM »
What time BUFKIT come in for nam?

Offline Crockett

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #644 on: January 21, 2016, 09:12:57 AM »
Can't enjoy the current snow because I have to be at the office.

Can't focus at the office because I'm hanging on every model run, every clown map and every TNWX post about the next snow.

The life of a weather weenie...

 

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