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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 264298 times)

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Online Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #615 on: January 21, 2016, 08:20:14 AM »
It looks to be near impossible for this one to make everyone happy. The 12z 4k NAM taken verbatim has the deform band as sleet for west Tn during the heavy stuff and turns to a little snow on the end.

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #616 on: January 21, 2016, 08:23:23 AM »
Roughly the 4k shows the transfer from Huntsville to Macon.  Very dynamic situation with high bust potential...but I like the set-up. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #617 on: January 21, 2016, 08:24:31 AM »
It looks to be near impossible for this one to make everyone happy. The 12z 4k NAM taken verbatim has the deform band as sleet for west Tn during the heavy stuff and turns to a little snow on the end.
sleet won't be
Much issue dyer. 850s crashing to fast mostly snow
Come on severe wx season...

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #618 on: January 21, 2016, 08:25:30 AM »
It looks to be near impossible for this one to make everyone happy. The 12z 4k NAM taken verbatim has the deform band as sleet for west Tn during the heavy stuff and turns to a little snow on the end.

Soundings don't jive with that at all...I wouldn't worry...


Offline Curt

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #619 on: January 21, 2016, 08:30:34 AM »
BEAST of a deformation zone at MEM on the 4k nam. show as snow not sleeet. near blizzard conditions

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #620 on: January 21, 2016, 08:34:24 AM »
Assuming the 12z GFS follows suit...I think we're coming to a pretty strong consensus in the main thrust of the deformation axis setting up along the S/E half of the MEM metro...much like the Euro. Appears to go gangbusters in the 12z to 15z timeframe with heaviest snowfall rates. That's slightly earlier than previous runs (by about 3 hours)....

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #621 on: January 21, 2016, 08:35:20 AM »
4km NAM gets my area to 33F at 9 AM and that is as high as we go. If temps turn out to be colder than modeled...watch out.

Pretty sure it tops Nashville out around 34F. Close, close call guys.
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Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #622 on: January 21, 2016, 08:37:50 AM »
4km NAM gets my area to 33F at 9 AM and that is as high as we go. If temps turn out to be colder than modeled...watch out.

Pretty sure it tops Nashville out around 34F. Close, close call guys.

Any info for the Boro?

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #623 on: January 21, 2016, 08:41:33 AM »
Any info for the Boro?

Looking at the 12km snow total map, it gives Rutherford County anywhere from 1-3". On this run there is still a sharp drop off in accumulation SE of Nashville, but there was a definite move SE with the biggest snows.

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Offline Matthew

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #624 on: January 21, 2016, 08:44:12 AM »
Looking at the 12km snow total map, it gives Rutherford County anywhere from 1-3". On this run there is still a sharp drop off in accumulation SE of Nashville, but there was a definite move SE with the biggest snows.

Thank You

Offline StormNine

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #625 on: January 21, 2016, 08:45:10 AM »

Offline ServoCrow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #626 on: January 21, 2016, 08:45:25 AM »
Any info for the Boro?

As Frank Drebin would say, "Move along, there's nothing to see here."   :police:

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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #627 on: January 21, 2016, 08:49:07 AM »
I like where the WPC's head is at...

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Offline Curt

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1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #628 on: January 21, 2016, 08:52:53 AM »
MEG beefing up thundersnow- thoughts? Seen this forecasted before but not materialize except once when NOT forecasted.

Christmas Blizzard 2012 for Arkansas had lots of thundersnow

http://youtu.be/aC3KELKoKWw
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 08:56:01 AM by Curt »

Online Dyersburg Weather

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #629 on: January 21, 2016, 08:55:01 AM »
Soundings don't jive with that at all...I wouldn't worry...



Thats why I put the verbatim in there. I was not buying.  ::snowman::

 

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