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Author Topic: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm  (Read 266194 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #585 on: January 21, 2016, 07:52:33 AM »
12z NAM is a hair south at 14 hours...still not all that different at 500mb than the 00z.

Also a little more positive tilt, may help it not wrap up as fast...we shall see.   
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 07:54:25 AM by snowdog »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #586 on: January 21, 2016, 07:56:50 AM »
And it begins... Thunder sleet reported at little rock...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #587 on: January 21, 2016, 07:57:03 AM »
12z NAM H19 looks a bit more concentric at the surface than the 6z. 

WAA not nearly as evident on the 12z....

12z NAM much colder at the surface than 6z.
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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #588 on: January 21, 2016, 07:58:25 AM »
RobertWx, throwing out some hope...lol

Robert at Wxsouth hasn't changed his tune about the south track and all, and just posted thisL
The beginning of the storm is within the short range model's view now . Here is hour 18 (valid tonight). A powerful digging impluse phases into a developing cutoff in Louisiana. This will roll eastward tomorrow through MS, AL, GA and then the Carolinas, reaching the East Coast Saturday afternoon.
Blocking confluent stream in the far Northeast US will keep on forcing the main low in the South to cut more east than north. This has been fooling a lot of forecasters, as each time the models "think" the low will pull into Tennessee, they recognize the strength of the Northern Stream and the storm down south is forced to redevelop and cut more eastward, across Georgia into South Carolina late Friday night.
Growing signs of that deformation backside snow band to get northern Alabama, northern Georgia overnight, where I have more snow than all models,

Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #589 on: January 21, 2016, 07:59:52 AM »
Better run for BNA thus far...ull and 700mb low further south

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #590 on: January 21, 2016, 08:00:03 AM »
Surface low stronger on the 12z (1004mb -> 1006mb on the 6z)..
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #591 on: January 21, 2016, 08:00:47 AM »
Changeover happening quicker to the NW on the 12z...
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Offline snowdog

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #592 on: January 21, 2016, 08:01:29 AM »
This is what we want to see.....should put deform band much closer to bna

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2016012112&var=ABSV&lev=700mb&hour=025

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #593 on: January 21, 2016, 08:01:52 AM »
Significant changes on 12z nam word is
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #594 on: January 21, 2016, 08:02:25 AM »
H25, MEM, MKL, CKV have all changed over.  That's 7am.
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #595 on: January 21, 2016, 08:03:52 AM »
Surface low is maybe 50 miles further S compared to the 6z iteration.
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Offline ServoCrow

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #596 on: January 21, 2016, 08:04:26 AM »
"Don't think it hasn't been a little slice of heaven...'cause it hasn't."
~Bugs Bunny, HAIR-RAISING HARE~

Offline Charles L.

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #597 on: January 21, 2016, 08:04:45 AM »
Definitely colder. Helps the surface low isn't in far NW AL.
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #598 on: January 21, 2016, 08:04:51 AM »
10am, MEM is getting blizzard'd.
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Offline Eric

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Re: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
« Reply #599 on: January 21, 2016, 08:06:20 AM »
T850s look MUCH better on the 12z than the 6z NAM.
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